Modelling alternative futures of global food security: Insights from FOODSECURE

Meijl, Hans van; Shutes, Lindsay; Valin, Hugo; Stehfest, Elke; Dijk, Michiel van; Kuiper, Marijke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlík, Petr

doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100358

Cited by 56 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Food security has four dimensions: availability, related to the quantities of food available for a population or for a region; access, considering if individuals have adequate resources for acquiring appropriate food; utilization, related to nutrition, safe diet, safe water, sanitation and health care; and stability, the concept that individuals must have access to food at all times (Meijl et al, 2020).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food stability model: A framework to support decision‐making in a context of climate change

Ribeiro

Berchin

Neiva

et al. 2020

Sustainable Development

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Global environmental changes coupled with socioeconomic changes are major challenges to food security. Changes in climate affect most food crops, particularly in countries that rely on agriculture for subsistence. The article proposes a model to analyze food stability in the context of climate change. Genetic improvement, agrobiodiversity, sustainable intensification, climate monitoring, and market monitoring were considered key perspectives for the balanced scorecard to achieve stability in food production. The set of perspectives and indicators were validated by 185 experts, which supported the creation of a balanced scorecard map to assist decision‐making. Therefore, the model could serve as an addition to FAO's approach to food security, driving actions related to global food policy. This research can also assist governmental policies to mitigate the effects of climate change on food stability around the world.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food stability model: A framework to support decision‐making in a context of climate change

Ribeiro

Berchin

Neiva

et al. 2020

Sustainable Development

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“…When accounting for prospective technology developments and CO2 fertilization, most studies project increases in global yields, varying from +23% 22 to +50% 23,24 , though these effects vary by region and crop 16,25,26 and include declines of -55% for maize 25 . Projections extrapolating past trends fall in the same order of magnitude, with increases of +30% to +50% 23,24,27,28 . Similar trends are found with sustainable intensification, focusing on irrigation (+24-37% 29 ) , nutrient management (+45-70% 30 ), optimizing cropland allocation 31 or technology 10 .…”

Section: Crop Production Projected To Increase Despite Climate Changementioning

confidence: 78%

Resilience of food sufficiency to future climate and societal changes

Weil

Johnson

Caristan

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Producing sufficient food to meet rising demand is a precondition for resilience of the global food system in the face of climate and societal changes. Leveraging machine learning techniques, we project total caloric yields, aggregating 100 crops and assuming crop mix adaptation to climate, soil and management conditions. We then estimate terrestrial caloric sufficiency considering population growth, diets, and production driven by climate, agricultural management, and cropland expansion under five climate change and socio-economic scenarios (SSPs). We show that global caloric sufficiency is likely to decrease, despite increased food production, because those gains are outweighed by population growth and higher animal products consumption. Caloric sufficiency decreases for most countries. Among countries facing hunger today, most remain vulnerable, and around 25 countries, mostly in Africa, become more vulnerable. Our results suggest that adapting crop mixes to new climate conditions will likely be insufficient to cope with global changes by 2050.

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“…In IAM, climate was first integrated into the macro-economic model by representation of carbon dioxide concentrations in the classical model of the long-run growth ( Nordhaus 1975 , 1977 , 1992 ). This model consists of combined data on the growth of crops, usage of soil and some other economic models ( Mendelsohn et al., 2016 ; Prinn et al., 1999 ; Fujino et al., 2006 ; Cai et al., 2020 ; Müller et al., 2020 ; Meijl et al., 2020 ). The IAM developed a single entity by using the cause and effect of change in climate and by collecting the knowledge from different disciplines into a single entity and ultimately developing a network of information for developing policies ( Dinar and Mendelsohn, 2011 ; Vanschoenwinkel et al., 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated assessment model for food security under climate change for South Asia

Alvi

Roson

Sartori

et al. 2021

Heliyon

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The present study develops an integrated assessment model (IAM) for food security under climate change for South Asia. For IAM, initially, an econometric model is estimated that identifies the impact of climate change on crop yields, using the historical relationships between temperature, precipitation, and the production of cereals. Subsequently, future projections have been collected for temperature and precipitation from climate models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the previous econometric model is applied to obtain the implied future cereal yields changes. Then, the yield variations are fed into a multiregional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, calibrated to the GTAP 9 database, taking the form of decreases in factor-augmenting productivity of the grains sector. Further, the present study evaluates the effects of climate change on an individual South Asian country. The results indicate that change in climate decreases food production, increases food prices, decreases food consumption, and thus affects the welfare. Trade and fiscal policy responses are investigated to combat the problem of food security. It is revealed that these two policies fail to compensate climate change damage in all the selected South Asian countries.

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Modelling alternative futures of global food security: Insights from FOODSECURE

Cited by 56 publications

References 25 publications

Food stability model: A framework to support decision‐making in a context of climate change

Food stability model: A framework to support decision‐making in a context of climate change

Resilience of food sufficiency to future climate and societal changes

An integrated assessment model for food security under climate change for South Asia

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