Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation – A 25-year review

Meade, Nigel; Islam, Tarikul

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.01.005

Cited by 663 publications

(390 citation statements)

References 134 publications

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“…Studies of multiple consumer durables show no evidence of a shorter incubation time (Kohli et al, 1999) or of diffusion acceleration over time (Stremersch et al, 2010;Peres et al, 2010). However, Golder and Tellis (1997) find evidence of decreasing time to takeoff of products introduced after World War II, and Meade and Islam (2006) similarly discuss studies that suggest an increase of diffusion speed over the past century. …”

Section: Average Durationsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Measuring the duration of formative phases for energy technologies

Bento

Wilson

2016

Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions

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Innovation processes during the early period of a technology's development establish the conditions for widespread commercialization. For comparative analysis of innovation processes across technologies, a common operational definition of the formative phase is needed. This paper develops a set of indicators to measure the start and end points of formative phases with reference to key innovation processes including experimentation and market formation. The indicators are then applied to measure the formative phase durations of sixteen energy technologies covering a range of historical periods and applications. Formative phases are found to last 22 years on average. Determinants of formative phase duration are explored. Duration does not appear to be explained by unit scale, up-scaling, nor initial cost. However, technologies that are ready substitutes for incumbents have shorter formative phases, ceteris paribus. Policy implications include the potentials and risks of accelerating formative phases to push low carbon technologies into the market.

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Section: Average Durationsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Measuring the duration of formative phases for energy technologies

Bento

Wilson

2016

Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions

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“…With regard to the various mathematical models used to measure the diffusion process, the logistic model, researchers have frequently used the Gompertz model, the ARMA (Autoregressive-moving-average) model and the Bass model (see Meade and Islam (2006) for a comprehensive review of this literature). Among these models, the seminal Bass model captures more intuitive aspects of the diffusion process than other models by distinguishing the effects of innovation (inherent tendency) and imitation (social contagion) (Bass 1969).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Empirical Analysis of Smartphone Diffusions in a Global Context

Cho¹

2015

J. Contemp. East. Asia

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“…Given an innovation perspective on the institutional transition to democracy, such as in the application of diffusion models, we would not expect various origins or institutional idiosyncrasies among potential adopters to be critical, since a variety of fractions or even a dynamic fraction susceptible to the innovation may already be assumed in these models [17,20,59]. Therefore, accepting diffusion model perspectives, points of departure of the autocratic regime, and the institutional pathway towards democracy, should not matter.…”

Section: Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, given the trial-and-error institutional learning processes on a global scale, and standard models of diffusion of innovations, projections of likely further democracy diffusion can in principle be made (such as Fischer-Pry transforms, Bass models and SIR epidemiological models, see [16][17][18][19][20][21]). If these models are in principle adequate, then the institutional origins and pathways are already accounted for in the model as time varying fractions of susceptible units and therefore not influencing the standard diffusion pattern.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Democratic revolutions as institutional innovation diffusion: Rapid adoption and survival of democracy

Jansson

Lindenfors

Sandberg

2013

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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Recent 'democratic revolutions' in Islamic countries call for a re-consideration of transitions to and from democracy. Transitions to democracy have often been considered the outcome of socio-economic modernization and therefore slow and incremental processes. But as a recent study has made clear, in the last century, transitions to democracy have mainly occurred through rapid leaps rather than slow and incremental steps. Here, we therefore apply an innovation and systems perspective and consider transitions to democracy as processes of institutional, and therefore systemic, innovation adoption. We show that transitions to democracy starting before 1900 lasted for an average of 50 years and a median of 56 years, while transitions originating later took an average of 4.6 years and a median of 1.7 years. However, our results indicate that the survival time of democratic regimes is longer in cases where the transition periods have also been longer, suggesting that patience paid in previous democratizations. We identify a critical 'consolidation-preparing' transition period of 12 years. Our results also show that in cases where the transitions have not been made directly from autocracy to democracy, there are no main institutional paths towards democracy. Instead, democracy seems reachable from a variety of directions. This is in line with the analogy of diffusion of innovations at the nation systems level, for which assumptions are that potential adopter systems may vary in susceptibility over time. The adoption of the institutions of democracy therefore corresponds to the adoption of a new political communications standard for a nation, in this case the innovation of involving in principle all adult citizens on an equal basis.

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Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation – A 25-year review

Cited by 663 publications

References 134 publications

Measuring the duration of formative phases for energy technologies

Measuring the duration of formative phases for energy technologies

An Empirical Analysis of Smartphone Diffusions in a Global Context

Democratic revolutions as institutional innovation diffusion: Rapid adoption and survival of democracy

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