Modelling and forecasting the effects of increasing sea surface temperature on coral bleaching in the Indo-Pacific region

Khalil, Idham; Muslim, Aidy M.; Hossain, Mohammad Shawkat; Atkinson, Peter M.

doi:10.1080/01431161.2022.2161850

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Another integrated linear extension rates of corals from three different islands in the same region with future SSTs to forecast coral growth rates 98 . One study used historical bleaching and sea surface temperature records to project future bleaching probabilities in the Indo-Pacific 99 , while another regional-scale study focused on larval connectivity and identified conservation areas with lower risks of coral bleaching in the Amani Islands of southern Japan 100 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Klein,

Roch,

Duarte

2024

Nat Commun

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Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely to safeguard most of the world’s coral reefs. This prognosis is primarily based on a small subset of available models that apply similar ‘excess heat’ threshold methodologies. Our systematic review of 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change revealed five main methods. ‘Excess heat’ models constituted one third (32%) of all studies but attracted a disproportionate share (68%) of citations in the field. Most methods relied on deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding the field’s ability to estimate uncertainty. To synthesize the available projections, we aimed to identify models with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices in model outputs and scenarios limited the analysis to a fraction of available studies. We found substantial discrepancies in the projected impacts, indicating that the subset of articles serving as a basis for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other studies and methodologies. Drawing on insights from other fields, we propose methods to incorporate uncertainty into deterministic modeling approaches and propose a multi-model ensemble approach to generating probabilistic projections for coral reef futures.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Klein,

Roch,

Duarte

2024

Nat Commun

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“…A tool was designed (Hussain, A., & Ingole, B. (2020)) to quantify and predict successfully coral bleaching across eastern Arabian sea using the trend in bleaching records with change in DHW.It is very important to understand the ECS Transactions, 107 (1) 11225-11237 (2022) spatiotemporal variations (Khalil, I. (2019).)…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability & Comparative Impact Analysis of Coral Reef Bleaching in Indian Context

Goswami¹,

Ali²

2022

ECS Trans.

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An estimated value of 500 million of the population are directly benefited through coral reefs related jobs, food and defence of coastal areas. Coral reefs help to reduce wave energy by 97%. They help to protect the coastal areas from storms, floods and wave energy by 97%. Natural disasters such as Tsunami and erosion of coastal areas are protected by reefs. In this process, they help to protect the lives of many staying in the coastal areas including animals, properties, and other natural resources. There are reasons for reef deterioration like change of climate, high pollution, destructive fishing, bleaching of coral reefs is a big concern now worldwide. Severe coral bleaching is also reported in India. A significant rise in the surface temperature of Sea has become a critical reason for coral bleaching. This work attempts to Study the link between sustainability , SDG goals of 2030 given by United Nations and coral bleaching. In this work study period is focused from 1985 to 2021 in the Indian coral reef bleaching areas.

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