Modelling and mapping of the COVID-19 trajectory and pandemic paths at global scale: A geographer’s perspective

Valjarević, Aleksandar; Milić, Marija; Valjarević, Dragana; Stanojević-Ristić, Zorica; Petrović, Ljiljana; Milanović, Miško; Filipović, Dragana; Ristanovic, Branko; Basarin, Biljana; Lukić, Tin

doi:10.1515/geo-2020-0156

Cited by 19 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“… Internet and social networks: Google (Husnayain, Shim, Fuad, & Su, 2020 ; Kapoor et al., 2020 ; Nguyen et al., 2020 ; Pászto & Vondráková, 2020 ), Baidu (Cheng et al., 2020 ; Liu, Fang, et al., 2020 ; Mu, Yeh, & Zhang, 2020 ; Shen, 2020 ; Shi et al., 2020 ; Tong, Ma, & Liu, 2020 ; Xu, Wang, Dong, Shen, & Xu, 2020 ), Facebook (Coven & Gupta, 2020 ; Heo, Lim, & Bell, 2020 ; Kuchler, Russel, & Stroebel, 2020 ), Twitter geotagged tweets (Iranmanesh & Alpar Atun, 2021 ; Li, Li, et al., 2020 ; Saeed et al., 2021 ; Yang et al., 2020 ), Weibo (Peng, Wang, Liu, & Wu, 2020 ), Quingbo (Zhu, Zheng, Liu, Li, & Wang, 2020 ). Air and sea transport (Depellegrin, Bastianini, Fadini, & Menegon, 2020 ; Snyder & Parks, 2020 ; Sun, Wandelt, & Zhang, 2020 ; Valjarević et al., 2020 ). Monitoring of public transport: bus (Desmet & Wacziarg, 2020 ; Guida & Carpentieri, 2020 ; Sui et al., 2020 ), taxi (Nian et al., 2020 ), and urban bicycles (Pase, Chiariotti, Zanella, & Zorzi, 2020 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A review of GIS methodologies to analyze the dynamics of COVID‐19 in the second half of 2020

Franch-Pardo

Desjardins

Barea-Navarro

et al. 2021

Transactions in GIS

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COVID‐19 has infected over 163 million people and has resulted in over 3.9 million deaths. Regarding the tools and strategies to research the ongoing pandemic, spatial analysis has been increasingly utilized to study the impacts of COVID‐19. This article provides a review of 221 scientific articles that used spatial science to study the pandemic published from June 2020 to December 2020. The main objectives are: to identify the tools and techniques used by the authors; to review the subjects addressed and their disciplines; and to classify the studies based on their applications. This contribution will facilitate comparisons with the body of work published during the first half of 2020, revealing the evolution of the COVID‐19 phenomenon through the lens of spatial analysis. Our results show that there was an increase in the use of both spatial statistical tools (e.g., geographically weighted regression, Bayesian models, spatial regression) applied to socioeconomic variables and analysis at finer spatial and temporal scales. We found an increase in remote sensing approaches, which are now widely applied in studies around the world. Lockdowns and associated changes in human mobility have been extensively examined using spatiotemporal techniques. Another dominant topic studied has been the relationship between pollution and COVID‐19 dynamics, which enhance the impact of human activities on the pandemic's evolution. This represents a shift from the first half of 2020, when the research focused on climatic and weather factors. Overall, we have seen a vast increase in spatial tools and techniques to study COVID‐19 transmission and the associated risk factors.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Air and sea transport (Depellegrin, Bastianini, Fadini, & Menegon, 2020 ; Snyder & Parks, 2020 ; Sun, Wandelt, & Zhang, 2020 ; Valjarević et al., 2020 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of GIS methodologies to analyze the dynamics of COVID‐19 in the second half of 2020

Franch-Pardo

Desjardins

Barea-Navarro

et al. 2021

Transactions in GIS

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“…The influences of urban built environment, individual physiological differences, residents' behavioral preferences and group psychological changes are ignored, and the role of these factors in the process of epidemic transmission needs to be further explored. (2) The mechanism of the epidemic spread has not been thoroughly discussed. In what ways does the natural environment and economic and social factors influence the spread speed of an epidemic?…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As of 17:30 on 12 July 2021, the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide exceeded 186.4 million and the cumulative death toll exceeded 4.03 million (https://www.who.int/, accessed on 12 July 2021). The ravages of the epidemic not only consume the lives and health of residents, but also hinder the process of economic globalization, causing huge economic losses to countries around the world [1,2]. In addition, the mutation of the virus strain makes the incubation period of the virus shorter and the epidemic stronger, increasing the difficulty of epidemic prevention and control.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Influencing Factors on Spatial Spread of COVID-19 Based on Geographical Perspective

Xie

Zhao

Ding

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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The COVID-19 outbreak is a manifestation of the contradiction between man and land. Geography plays an important role in epidemic prevention and control with its cross-sectional characteristics and spatial perspective. Based on a systematic review of previous studies, this paper summarizes the research progress on factors influencing the spatial spread of COVID-19 from the research content and method and proposes the main development direction of geography in epidemic prevention and control research in the future. Overall, current studies have explored the factors influencing the epidemic spread on different scales, including global, national, regional and urban. Research methods are mainly composed of quantitative analysis. In addition to the traditional regression analysis and correlation analysis, the spatial lag model, the spatial error model, the geographically weighted regression model and the geographic detector have been widely used. The impact of natural environment and economic and social factors on the epidemic spread is mainly reflected in temperature, humidity, wind speed, air pollutants, population movement, economic development level and medical and health facilities. In the future, new technologies, new methods and new means should be used to reveal the driving mechanism of the epidemic spread in a specific geographical space, which is refined, multi-scale and systematic, with emphasis on exploring the factors influencing the epidemic spread from the perspective of spatial and behavioral interaction, and establish a spatial database platform that combines the information of residents’ cases, the natural environment and economic society. This is of great significance to further play the role of geography in epidemic prevention and control.

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“…Geospatial analysis, in this context, has much room for application. Geolocalisation has proved to be an essential tool for analysing the path of the virus on a global scale and to modelling scenarios of virus distribution (Valjarević et al, 2020). In other cases, GIS technology was used to identify the space-time clusters of COVID-19 in a large country at the family level (Xu et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Space-Time Diffusion Simulator in a Gis Environment to Tackle the Covid-19 Emergency. Testing a Geotechnological Application in Rome

Pesaresi¹,

Pavia²,

Vito³

et al. 2021

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In this paper, we start from a contextualization about the measures used to contain the COVID-19 diffusion and the need to promote geotechnological proposals, data sharing and homogenous centralised systems for data collection and analysis. Successively, we present the "Dynamic Space-Time Diffusion Simulator in a GIS Environment to Tackle the COVID-19 Emergency" that we have elaborated on the basis of the data provided by the UOC Hygiene and Public Health Service -Local Health Unit Rome 1. Particularly, after describing the main technical process able to predispose the dynamic simulator, we underline the possible added value that it can provide in terms of infection surveillance and monitoring, precision preparedness, support to decision making and territorial screening. For this demonstrative application, we have extracted from the simulator some groups of four digital screenshots which are able to show synoptic photographs in temporal perspective concerning the total number of cases of COVID-19 in Rome (Italy) for the period February 25th -September 26th. Specifically we have selected: -four screenshots for the period February 25th -June 11th, to provide significant evidence about the first three months and a half; -four screenshots for the period March 1st -March 29th, to add an insight into the geographically and statistically meaningful month of March; -four screenshots for the period June 12th -September 26th, to supply an efficacious geovisualisation of the last three months and a half available; -four screenshots for the period February 25th -September 26th, to show a cumulative elaboration aimed at geolocating all the cases recorded in the seven months examined; -four screenshots for the period March 26th -September 26th, with a distinction about the first and second data sets, for a detailed (cumulative) zoom. This simulator, elaborated for the COVID-19 emergency, can be replicated in any circumstance for which specific data and information are available for the scientific community, shared and progressively updated in order to provide a productive contribution to the identification of serious infectious disease clusters, patterns and trends, and quickly respond to specific needs.

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Modelling and mapping of the COVID-19 trajectory and pandemic paths at global scale: A geographer’s perspective

Cited by 19 publications

References 51 publications

A review of GIS methodologies to analyze the dynamics of COVID‐19 in the second half of 2020

A review of GIS methodologies to analyze the dynamics of COVID‐19 in the second half of 2020

A Review of Influencing Factors on Spatial Spread of COVID-19 Based on Geographical Perspective

Dynamic Space-Time Diffusion Simulator in a Gis Environment to Tackle the Covid-19 Emergency. Testing a Geotechnological Application in Rome

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