Modelling and Optimal Control of Typhoid Fever Disease with Cost-Effective Strategies

Tilahun, Getachew Teshome; Makinde, Oluwole Daniel; Malonza, David

doi:10.1155/2017/2324518

Cited by 68 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…In this method, the costs and effects of two interventions competing under the scarcity of resources were compared [34,36,46]. To quantify the cost effectiveness of the control strategies, we obtained the ratios for the difference of cost between the two control strategies and the difference of the total number of infections averted by these strategies [34,47]. By using the parameter values given in Table 1, the ICER numerical values are obtained in Table 2.…”

Section: Cost-effectiveness Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of Optimal Control Theory to Newcastle Disease Dynamics in Village Chicken by Considering Wild Birds as Reservoir of Disease Virus

Chuma

Mwanga

Masanja

2019

Journal of Applied Mathematics

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In this study, an optimal control theory was applied to a nonautonomous model for Newcastle disease transmission in the village chicken population. A notable feature of this model is the inclusion of environment contamination and wild birds, which act as reservoirs of the disease virus. Vaccination, culling, and environmental hygiene and sanitation time dependent control strategies were adopted in the proposed model. This study proved the existence of an optimal control solution, and the necessary conditions for optimality were determined using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. The numerical simulations of the optimal control problem were performed using the forward–backward sweep method. The results showed that the use of only the environmental hygiene and sanitation control strategy has no significant effect on the transmission dynamics of the Newcastle disease. Additionally, the combination of vaccination and environmental hygiene and sanitation strategies reduces more number of infected chickens and the concentration of the Newcastle disease virus in the environment than any other combination of control strategies. Furthermore, a cost-effective analysis was performed using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio method, and the results showed that the use of vaccination alone as the control measure is less costly compared to other control strategies. Hence, the most effective way to minimize the transmission rate of the Newcastle disease and the operational costs is concluded to be the timely vaccination of the entire population of the village chicken, improvement in the sanitation of facilities, and the maintenance of a hygienically clean environment.

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Section: Cost-effectiveness Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of Optimal Control Theory to Newcastle Disease Dynamics in Village Chicken by Considering Wild Birds as Reservoir of Disease Virus

Chuma

Mwanga

Masanja

2019

Journal of Applied Mathematics

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“…This virus shows severe symptoms in older individuals and in those who are already indulged with some sort of disease, like diabetes, cardiovascular disorders, cancer, chronic respiratory disorders, etc. The outbreak of COVID-19 raised many questions like how much time is required to formulate the vaccine or medicine to treat this disease effectively [5]. When would the world be free of all the deadly viruses?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Design of nonstandard computational method for stochastic susceptible–infected–treated–recovered dynamics of coronavirus model

et al. 2020

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The current effort is devoted to investigating and exploring the stochastic nonlinear mathematical pandemic model to describe the dynamics of the novel coronavirus. The model adopts the form of a nonlinear stochastic susceptible-infected-treated-recovered system, and we investigate the stochastic reproduction dynamics, both analytically and numerically. We applied different standard and nonstandard computational numerical methods for the solution of the stochastic system. The design of a nonstandard computation method for the stochastic system is innovative. Unfortunately, standard computation numerical methods are time-dependent and violate the structure properties of models, such as positivity, boundedness, and dynamical consistency of the stochastic system. To that end, convergence analysis of nonstandard computational methods and simulation with a comparison of standard computational methods are presented.

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“…Typhoid fever remains an important cause of disease worldwide [4], but particularly, in resource-limited countries [5]. This is as a result of poor hygiene practices [6] and an inadequate diagnostic laboratory capacity to differentiate typhoid fever from other febrile conditions [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early Economic Evaluation to Identify the Necessary Test Characteristics of a New Typhoid Test to be Cost Effective in Ghana

Frempong

Sutton

Davenport

et al. 2019

PharmacoEconomics Open

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Background In Ghana, there are issues with the diagnosis of typhoid fever; these include delays in diagnosis, concerns about the accuracy of current tests, and lack of availability. These issues highlight the need for the development of a rapid, accurate, and easily accessible diagnostic test. The aim of this study was to conduct an early economic analysis of a hypothetical rapid test for typhoid fever diagnosis in Ghana and identify the necessary characteristics of the test for it to be cost effective in Ghana. Methods An early cost-utility analysis was conducted using a decision tree parameterized with secondary data sources, with reasonable assumptions made for unknown parameters. The patient population considered is individuals presenting with symptoms suggestive of typhoid fever at a healthcare facility in Ghana; a time horizon of 180 days and the Ghanaian national health service perspective were adopted for the analysis. Extensive sensitivity analysis was undertaken, including headroom analysis. Results The results here show that for a hypothetical test to perform better than the existing test (Widal) in terms of QALYs gained and cost effectiveness, it is necessary for it to have a high specificity (at least 70%) and should not be priced more than US$4. The overall value of conducting research to reduce uncertainty (over 5 years) is US$3287. Conclusion The analysis shows the potential for the hypothetical test to replace the Widal test and the market potential of developing a new test in the Ghanaian setting.

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Modelling and Optimal Control of Typhoid Fever Disease with Cost-Effective Strategies

Cited by 68 publications

References 13 publications

Application of Optimal Control Theory to Newcastle Disease Dynamics in Village Chicken by Considering Wild Birds as Reservoir of Disease Virus

Application of Optimal Control Theory to Newcastle Disease Dynamics in Village Chicken by Considering Wild Birds as Reservoir of Disease Virus

Design of nonstandard computational method for stochastic susceptible–infected–treated–recovered dynamics of coronavirus model

Early Economic Evaluation to Identify the Necessary Test Characteristics of a New Typhoid Test to be Cost Effective in Ghana

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