Modelling Changing Rural Land Use in New Zealand 1997 to 2008 Using a Multinomial Logit Approach

Dorner, Zack; Hyslop, Dean

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2522746

“…explain these results. My results are similar to those of Dorner and Hyslop (2014), even though we compare different periods and use a different econometric strategy.…”

Section: Māori Freehold Landsupporting

confidence: 66%

“…Specifically, I explore four questions: was Māori freehold land less likely to be used in capital intensive activities in 41 I do not include land sales as a variable in my analysis because Māori freehold land cannot easily be sold. Dorner and Hyslop (2014) included Māori freehold land as a control variable in their analysis, however, the coefficient estimates are not statistically significant. 42 Different studies have explored the potential economic gains from bringing under-utilised and 'unproductive' Māori freehold land into the productive agriculture sector; for more information, see Daigneault, Wright, and Samarasinghe, 2015;Pricewaterhouse Coopers, 2013, 2014a, 2014b, 2014cTe Puni Kōkiri, 2014a, 2014b.…”

Section: Directions For Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Kerr and Olssen (2012) slowly to changes in economic returns. Dorner and Hyslop (2014) found a positive effect of land sales on land-cover changes from pasture into forestry. 41 Timar (2011; estimated the relationship between Māori freehold land status and rural land-use In this chapter, I aim to contribute to the understanding of the drivers of rural landcover choices in Aotearoa New Zealand, by quantifying the relationship between Māori land governance structures and rural land utilisation.…”

Section: Directions For Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Land-cover choices and governance structures: lessons from Māori

Cortes-Acosta¹

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<p>Decisions on land utilisation and management have socio-economic and environmental implications. In this study, I use a mixed-methods approach to explore how Māori land governance structures influence decisions on land utilisation and hence greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with rural activities on Māori freehold land. General land and Māori freehold land are the main land statuses in Aotearoa New Zealand. General land, under private ownership, is not subject to the distinct statutory regime of Māori freehold land and can be owned by any New Zealander. Māori freehold, under collective ‘ownership’, is regulated by the Te Ture Whenua Māori Act 1993 (TTWM) and its ‘ownership’ is based on a customary regime and ancestral connections. The TTWM provides a range of legal entities, including the two Māori land governance structures examined in this thesis – Māori incorporations and Ahu Whenua trusts – to facilitate decision-making and to administer land and assets on behalf of the ‘owners’. First, I explore how Māori land governance structures influence decisions on land utilisation and management. I discuss three case studies of Māori farms administered by different governance structures involved in agribusiness. Their decision-making process structure can be separated into two levels: the governance of the land and the operation of the enterprise. Maori land governance structures help to make ‘successful’ decisions, by balancing landowners’ interests with optimal operation and performance of the agribusiness. This success not only depends on the legal constitution of the governance structure, but also on processes that are highly variable due to cultural and social values, and the capability of the board members to reach decisions. Second, I explore decision-making processes concerning carbon farming, an opportunity to receive carbon credits from reforestation or afforestation. Face-to-face semi-structured interviews with a small group of Māori landowners revealed two central decisions: switching to forestry and joining the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS). Forestry provides an economic opportunity to access long-term capital through timber harvests: but carbon farming is a relatively new experience, which provides additional short-term revenue prior to harvesting. Third, I extend the qualitative analysis by econometrically modelling the relationship between Māori land governance structures and land-cover choices. I use maximum likelihood methods to estimate the probability of allocation of land in 2012 and the probability of land-cover transitions between 1997 and 2012. For Māori freehold land, there is a positive relationship between having a Māori land governance structure in place and the allocation of land in 2012 in forestry and a negative association with pasture. From 1997 to 2012 Māori land governance structures were associated with more transitions to forestry and fewer transitions into scrub. Four, using hypothetical scenarios, I build on the econometric model of land-cover transitions to compare the effects of transitions between forestry, pasture and scrub across the period 1997–2012, and the role of the Māori land governance structures. I examine the implications of these transitions for private land and Māori freehold land in terms of both carbon dioxide equivalent and warming equivalent. Overall, Māori freehold land governance structures in the hypothesised scenarios would lead to an increase of the amount of carbon sequestered, relative to the actual levels of sequestration observed. The current way of counting GHGs leads to a much lower estimate of the contribution in reductions to the impact of warming. Understanding drivers for these decisions can help to identify areas for the development of effective public policies regarding climate change mitigation.</p>

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“…Specifically, I explore four questions: was Māori freehold land less likely to be used in capital intensive activities in 41 I do not include land sales as a variable in my analysis because Māori freehold land cannot easily be sold. Dorner and Hyslop (2014) included Māori freehold land as a control variable in their analysis, however, the coefficient estimates are not statistically significant. 42 Different studies have explored the potential economic gains from bringing under-utilised and 'unproductive' Māori freehold land into the productive agriculture sector; for more information, see Daigneault, Wright, and Samarasinghe, 2015;Pricewaterhouse Coopers, 2013, 2014a, 2014b, 2014cTe Puni Kōkiri, 2014a, 2014b.…”

Section: Directions For Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Kerr and Olssen (2012) slowly to changes in economic returns. Dorner and Hyslop (2014) found a positive effect of land sales on land-cover changes from pasture into forestry. 41 Timar (2011; estimated the relationship between Māori freehold land status and rural land-use In this chapter, I aim to contribute to the understanding of the drivers of rural landcover choices in Aotearoa New Zealand, by quantifying the relationship between Māori land governance structures and rural land utilisation.…”

Section: Directions For Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 98%

Land-cover choices and governance structures: lessons from Māori

Cortes-Acosta¹

0

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

<p>Decisions on land utilisation and management have socio-economic and environmental implications. In this study, I use a mixed-methods approach to explore how Māori land governance structures influence decisions on land utilisation and hence greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with rural activities on Māori freehold land. General land and Māori freehold land are the main land statuses in Aotearoa New Zealand. General land, under private ownership, is not subject to the distinct statutory regime of Māori freehold land and can be owned by any New Zealander. Māori freehold, under collective ‘ownership’, is regulated by the Te Ture Whenua Māori Act 1993 (TTWM) and its ‘ownership’ is based on a customary regime and ancestral connections. The TTWM provides a range of legal entities, including the two Māori land governance structures examined in this thesis – Māori incorporations and Ahu Whenua trusts – to facilitate decision-making and to administer land and assets on behalf of the ‘owners’. First, I explore how Māori land governance structures influence decisions on land utilisation and management. I discuss three case studies of Māori farms administered by different governance structures involved in agribusiness. Their decision-making process structure can be separated into two levels: the governance of the land and the operation of the enterprise. Maori land governance structures help to make ‘successful’ decisions, by balancing landowners’ interests with optimal operation and performance of the agribusiness. This success not only depends on the legal constitution of the governance structure, but also on processes that are highly variable due to cultural and social values, and the capability of the board members to reach decisions. Second, I explore decision-making processes concerning carbon farming, an opportunity to receive carbon credits from reforestation or afforestation. Face-to-face semi-structured interviews with a small group of Māori landowners revealed two central decisions: switching to forestry and joining the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS). Forestry provides an economic opportunity to access long-term capital through timber harvests: but carbon farming is a relatively new experience, which provides additional short-term revenue prior to harvesting. Third, I extend the qualitative analysis by econometrically modelling the relationship between Māori land governance structures and land-cover choices. I use maximum likelihood methods to estimate the probability of allocation of land in 2012 and the probability of land-cover transitions between 1997 and 2012. For Māori freehold land, there is a positive relationship between having a Māori land governance structure in place and the allocation of land in 2012 in forestry and a negative association with pasture. From 1997 to 2012 Māori land governance structures were associated with more transitions to forestry and fewer transitions into scrub. Four, using hypothetical scenarios, I build on the econometric model of land-cover transitions to compare the effects of transitions between forestry, pasture and scrub across the period 1997–2012, and the role of the Māori land governance structures. I examine the implications of these transitions for private land and Māori freehold land in terms of both carbon dioxide equivalent and warming equivalent. Overall, Māori freehold land governance structures in the hypothesised scenarios would lead to an increase of the amount of carbon sequestered, relative to the actual levels of sequestration observed. The current way of counting GHGs leads to a much lower estimate of the contribution in reductions to the impact of warming. Understanding drivers for these decisions can help to identify areas for the development of effective public policies regarding climate change mitigation.</p>

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That Sinking Feeling: The Changing Price of Disaster Risk Following an Earthquake

Tímár

¹

,

Grimes

²

,

Fabling

³

2014

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We treat the Canterbury (Christchurch) earthquake sequence as a potential source of new risk information to home buyers in New Zealand. We compare pre-and post-earthquake sales of properties in two other urban areas of the country (one with high and one with low seismicity) to estimate how the pricing of earthquake-related risks changed following the Canterbury earthquakes. Specifically, we test for changes in risk premia associated with soil liquefaction potential, previously a largely ignored hazard, and changes in premia for house construction types (such as brick) that previously were well-known to be less safe in an earthquake. By exploiting two types of risk (one previously ignored and one well-recognised by households) across two areas with differing seismic risks, pre-and post-earthquake, we use a difference-indifference indifference approach to test hypotheses about how people respond to a new clearly defined risk that is important only in certain circumstances. We find no evidence that the price of known construction risk changed in either seismic area and no evidence of a change in the price of liquefaction risk in the low seismic area following the Canterbury earthquakes. However, we do find strong evidence that a liquefaction risk discount emerged in the high seismic area immediately after the Canterbury earthquakes. These findings are all in accord with rational responses to risk following the earthquakes. However, the liquefaction risk discount in the high seismic area dissipated after two years and had disappeared entirely within three years of the earthquakes. This finding is similar to those identified in a limited number of previous empirical studies on responses to natural hazard events. While we cannot rule out entirely that this time-varying risk premium is a rational response to risk (e.g. because of changing expectations around insurable versus noninsurable risks), we find it more plausible that these changing risk discounts reflect behavioural responses to risk as indicated in the cognitive dissonance literature.

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Modelling Changing Rural Land Use in New Zealand 1997 to 2008 Using a Multinomial Logit Approach

Cited by 16 publications

References 22 publications

Land-cover choices and governance structures: lessons from Māori

Land-cover choices and governance structures: lessons from Māori

Land-cover choices and governance structures: lessons from Māori

That Sinking Feeling: The Changing Price of Disaster Risk Following an Earthquake

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