Modelling chaotic behaviour in agricultural prices using a discrete deterministic nonlinear price model

Bacsi, Zsuzsanna

doi:10.1016/s0308-521x(97)00003-6

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Iterative Algorithm Based on Adaptive Expectation: In this case, an entity in the market adapts its strategies based on the previous and the current information (e.g., information on bandwidth demand) [58]. The previous information is used since the current information may be noisy, and therefore, may not represent the actual demand.…”

Section: Iterative Negotiation Algorithmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Network Economics

2016

Advanced Wireless Networks

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Section: Iterative Negotiation Algorithmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Network Economics

2016

Advanced Wireless Networks

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“…The problem emerging frequently in economic modelling is the use of deterministic equilibrium models observed mostly in irregular movements of time series and random looking fluctuations. Superiority of nonlinear chaotic models is that they enable us to drive this kind of irregular moments without stochastic variables (Bacsi, 1997).…”

Section: Chaotic Approach To Economic Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Agricultural Production: A Chaotic Dynamic Approach

et al. 2015

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The aim of this study is to examine the existence of chaotic structure in agricultural production in Turkey by using "Chaotic Dynamic Analysis (CDA)" and to provide an accurate forecast of agricultural production. The data of wheat, barley and rice production in Turkey obtained from Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) covers the period of 1991 to 2009. Our analysis shows that the supply of the selected agricultural products has a chaotic structure. The dynamic system constructed in this study predicted the supply of the year 2010 with a margin error of 0.5, 5, and 2.5 percentages for wheat, barley, and rice respectively. This study is the first attempt using CDA to forecast future agricultural product supply in Turkey. The findings of this study will help to produce effective policies to prevent supply disequilibrium, and excess price fluctuations.

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“…Based upon expected price pattern by Bacsi and Vizvári [1], Extrapolative Model is employed to evaluate the expected price for farmers. We elect:…”

Section: Micro-scopic Model Of Agricultural Crops Marketmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In modern economic market with more sources of information, the farmers have stronger capability of judging information and predicting the future price, thus reducing near-sighted behavior and market fluctuation(Bacsi and Vizvári [1]). According to the latest data of potatoes offered by the Council of Agriculture, the market price still fluctuated greatly to the prejudice of reliable income of farmers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agent-Based Simulation of Agricultural Prices Volatility Using Cellular Automata

Chen

Wang²

2007

Second International Conference on Innovative Computing, Informatio and Control (ICICIC 2007)

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This paper tries to re-explore the reasons why the prices fluctuate, in microscopic and emergent perspectives, more than expected in an agricultural market, using complex system modeling and agent-based simulation. The model mimic a real world agriculture market by establishing a price determination mechanism. Resorting to the chaotic analysis, averting from accurate price prediction, we find that, even for the simple case where farmers can only choose between two different predictors, with initial equal distribution, smaller entropy, i.e., more aggregative cultivation, usually gives rise to larger price fluctuation.

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Modelling chaotic behaviour in agricultural prices using a discrete deterministic nonlinear price model

Cited by 10 publications

References 16 publications

Network Economics

Network Economics

Forecasting Agricultural Production: A Chaotic Dynamic Approach

Agent-Based Simulation of Agricultural Prices Volatility Using Cellular Automata

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