Modelling climate suitability for Striga asiatica, a potential invasive weed of cereal crops

Araújo, Fausto Henrique Vieira; Silva, Alexandre Ferreira da; Ramos, Rodrigo Soares; Ferreira, Samuel Viana; Santos, José Barbosa dos; Silva, Ricardo Siqueira da; Shabani, Farzin

doi:10.1016/j.cropro.2022.106050

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Particularly, under the SSP 5–8.5 scenario, the highly suitable area decreased by 19%, which will likely have a detrimental impact on the crop's productivity as a result of changes in temperature and rainfall patterns. The present study explores the assessment of suitable land for turmeric cultivation in Kerala, both in the present context of 2020 and in the anticipated conditions for 2050, leveraging the CMIP6 MIROC6 model climate data 49,50 . A pivotal observation emerges, underscoring a discernible shift in the characteristics of currently suitable lands, predominantly transitioning towards moderately or marginally suitable categories 51 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…The present study explores the assessment of suitable land for turmeric cultivation in Kerala, both in the present context of 2020 and in the anticipated conditions for 2050, leveraging the CMIP6 MIROC6 model climate data. 49,50 A pivotal observation emerges, underscoring a discernible shift in the characteristics of currently suitable lands, predominantly www.soci.org M Banu et al…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Land suitability analysis for turmeric crop for humid tropical Kerala, India, under current and future climate scenarios using advanced geospatial techniques

Banu,

Krishnamurthy,

Srinivasan

et al. 2024

J Sci Food Agric

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BACKGROUNDTurmeric cultivation primarily thrives in India, followed by Bangladesh, Cambodia, Thailand, China, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. India leads globally in both area and production of turmeric. Despite this, there is a recognized gap in research regarding the impact of climate change on site suitability of turmeric. The primary objective of the present study was to evaluate both the present and future suitability of turmeric cultivation within the humid tropical region of Kerala, India, by employing advanced geospatial techniques. The research utilized meteorological data from the Indian Meteorological Department for the period of 1986–2020 as historical data and projected future data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Four climatic scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 model of MIROC6 for the year 2050 (SSP 1–2.6, SSP 2–4.5, SSP 3–7.0 and SSP 5–8.5) were used.RESULTSThe results showed that suitable area for turmeric cultivation is declining in future scenario and this decline can be primarily attributed to fluctuations in temperature and an anticipated increase in rainfall in the year 2050. Notable changes in the spatial distribution of suitable areas over time were observed through the application of geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Importantly, as per the suitability criteria provided by ICAR‐National Bureau of Soil Survey and Land Use Planning (ICAR‐NBSS & LUP), all the districts in Kerala exhibited moderately suitable conditions for turmeric cultivation. With the GIS tools, the study identified highly suitable, moderately suitable, marginally suitable and not suitable areas of turmeric cultivation in Kerala. Presently 28% of area falls under highly suitable, 41% of area falls under moderately suitable and 11% falls under not suitable for turmeric cultivation. However, considering the projected scenarios for 2050 under the SSP framework, there will be a significant decrease in highly suitable area by 19% under SSP 5–8.5. This reduction in area will have an impact on the productivity of the crop as a result of changes in temperature and rainfall patterns.CONCLUSIONThe outcome of the present research suggests that the state of Kerala needs to implement suitable climate change adaptation and management strategies for sustaining the turmeric cultivation. Additionally, the present study includes a discussion on potential management strategies to address the challenges posed by changing climatic conditions for optimizing turmeric production in the region. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land suitability analysis for turmeric crop for humid tropical Kerala, India, under current and future climate scenarios using advanced geospatial techniques

Banu,

Krishnamurthy,

Srinivasan

et al. 2024

J Sci Food Agric

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“…The CLIMEX software generates SDMs from the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) based on the growth and stress parameters of the species under study [38]. This methodology has been widely used for modeling the ecological niche of invasive species and weeds [39][40][41][42][43].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological Niche Modeling of Invasive Macrophyte (Urochloa subquadripara) and Co-Occurrence with South American Natives

Duque,

Souza,

Mendes

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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Invasive macrophytes are considered problematic in natural environments and hydroelectric reservoirs. Climate changes, the occurrences of watercourses, and biotic interactions influence biological invasions of macrophytes. The abundance of native species can be positively or negatively correlated with the occurrences of invasives. Urochloa subquadripara is an invasive in natural or disturbed habitats co-occurring with the natives Eichhornia crassipes and Salvinia minima in South America. Aquatic plant communities can be altered by climate change, so species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools for predicting invaded areas. This study aimed to apply an SDM to study correlations of U. subquadripara with the potential distributions of native species E. crassipes and S. minima. Occurrence data for U. subquadripara, E. crassipes, and S. minima were collected from databases and in consultation with the published literature. Parameters encompassing biological information of the species were entered into the CLIMEX software and used to generate the Ecoclimatic Index (EI). The species co-occurrence was performed based on multicriteria decision-making (MCDM), and weights were assigned using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). It was observed that U. subquadripara, E. crassipes, and S. minima had a higher occurrence in tropical and subtropical regions. However, it is predicted that these species may move to high latitudes from climatic changes. Considering climate changes, such as the increase in temperature and CO2, the risk of invasion by U. subquadripara in the northern hemisphere is mainly in lakes, whereas the areas conducive to invasions are rivers and reservoirs in the southern hemisphere. In general, emerging and floating macrophyte species such as U. subquadripara, E. crassipes, and S. minima will be favored, causing suppression of submerged species. Therefore, identifying the potential distribution of these species allows the creation of pre-invasion intervention strategies.

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Tamarixia radiata global distribution to current and future climate using the climate change experiment (CLIMEX) model

Souza

Aidoo²,

Farnezi

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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The phloem-limited bacteria, “Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus” and “Ca. L. americanus”, are the causal pathogens responsible for Huanglongbing (HLB). The Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae) is the principal vector of these “Ca. Liberibacter” species. Though Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) has been useful in biological control programmes against D. citri, information on its global distribution remains vague. Using the Climate Change Experiment (CLIMEX) model, the potential global distribution of T. radiata under the 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B and A2 was defined globally. The results showed that habitat suitability for T. radiata covered Africa, Asia, Europe, Oceania, and the Americas. The model predicted climate suitable areas for T. radiata beyond its presently known native and non-native areas. The new locations predicted to have habitat suitability for T. radiata included parts of Europe and Oceania. Under the different climate change scenarios, the model predicted contraction of high habitat suitability (EI > 30) for T. radiata from the 2050s to the 2090s. Nevertheless, the distribution maps created using the CLIMEX model may be helpful in the search for and release of T. radiata in new regions.

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Modelling climate suitability for Striga asiatica, a potential invasive weed of cereal crops

Cited by 5 publications

References 47 publications

Land suitability analysis for turmeric crop for humid tropical Kerala, India, under current and future climate scenarios using advanced geospatial techniques

Land suitability analysis for turmeric crop for humid tropical Kerala, India, under current and future climate scenarios using advanced geospatial techniques

Ecological Niche Modeling of Invasive Macrophyte (Urochloa subquadripara) and Co-Occurrence with South American Natives

Tamarixia radiata global distribution to current and future climate using the climate change experiment (CLIMEX) model

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