Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden

Kemp, Françoise; Proverbio, Daniele; Aalto, Atte; Mombaerts, Laurent; d’Hérouël, Aymeric Fouquier; Husch, Andreas; Ley, Christophe; Skupin, Alexander; Magni, Stefano

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110874

Cited by 29 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Nevertheless, a modeling study done at the American University of Beirut predicts a slight decrease in daily infections as the percentage of vaccinations significantly increases [33]. Another study from Austria, Luxemburg, and Sweden demonstrates that vaccination will considerably, but not immediately, help to limit the infection [34], thus, vaccination plays a minor role in the decline of cases observed in our data and may be majorly linked to the other two aforementioned factors.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 61%

Risk Markers of COVID-19, a Study from South-Lebanon

Chakkour

Salami

Kamal

et al. 2022

COVID

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Background: COVID-19, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, was declared by WHO in early 2020 as a worldwide pandemic. Several known risk markers are associated with COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, including age, gender, and diseases, such as hypertension, diabetes, and chronic cardiovascular diseases. Recent studies have shown an association between COVID-19 infection and the ABO blood groups. Objective: To assess the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among suspected COVID-19 patients as well as the risk markers for COVID-19 associated with ABO blood group, Rhesus factor, and patient’s address during the past year. Methods: 69,019 nasopharyngeal swab samples were collected and analyzed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction technique for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in patients attending a tertiary health care center in South Lebanon during the period between August 2020 and July 2021. Results: Among all tested subjects, the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was 19.2% (95% CI: 18.9% to 19.5%). Among those with known blood group (N = 17,462), odds of SARS-CoV-2 were higher in group A (Odds Ratio = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.23) and group AB (OR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.41) relative to the reference group O (OR = 1). Odds of SARS-CoV-2 in the Rh-negative group (OR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.89 to 1.16) were not significantly different from the Rh-positive group. Among those with known address (N = 30,060), odds of SARS-CoV-2 were lower in residents of remote areas (OR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80 to 0.99) relative to central cities. Conclusion: There is a modestly higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection associated with blood groups A and AB, and a lower risk associated with living in remote, less crowded regions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 61%

Risk Markers of COVID-19, a Study from South-Lebanon

Chakkour

Salami

Kamal

et al. 2022

COVID

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“…In general, a slowly forced system with variables x and control parameter q is [ 33 ]: with 0 < ϵ ≪ 1. Typical models of epidemic dynamics, such as SIR based models [ 26 , 34 ], can be expressed as a slowly forced system like Eq 1 when the control parameter R slowly approaches its critical value 1.…”

Section: Methods and Mathematical Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance of early warning signals for disease re-emergence: A case study on COVID-19 data

2022

Self Cite

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Developing measures for rapid and early detection of disease re-emergence is important to perform science-based risk assessment of epidemic threats. In the past few years, several early warning signals (EWS) from complex systems theory have been introduced to detect impending critical transitions and extend the set of indicators. However, it is still debated whether they are generically applicable or potentially sensitive to some dynamical characteristics such as system noise and rates of approach to critical parameter values. Moreover, testing on empirical data has, so far, been limited. Hence, verifying EWS performance remains a challenge. In this study, we tackle this question by analyzing the performance of common EWS, such as increasing variance and autocorrelation, in detecting the emergence of COVID-19 outbreaks in various countries. Our work illustrates that these EWS might be successful in detecting disease emergence when some basic assumptions are satisfied: a slow forcing through the transitions and not-fat-tailed noise. In uncertain cases, we observe that noise properties or commensurable time scales may obscure the expected early warning signals. Overall, our results suggest that EWS can be useful for active monitoring of epidemic dynamics, but that their performance is sensitive to certain features of the underlying dynamics. Our findings thus pave a connection between theoretical and empirical studies, constituting a further step towards the application of EWS indicators for informing public health policies.

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“…Based on meta-analyses, COVID-19 vaccines have been shown to be highly effective in reducing infection and preventing severe disease progression (8,9), additionally recent evidence suggests that transmission probability is reduced in vaccinated individuals (10). However, effective the vaccines may be, the desired consequence of this measures will only be achieved if there is an appropriate vaccination rate (11) and necessary amount of willingness in the population to get vaccinated. To achieve herd immunity, at least theoretically, recent estimates (based on data from Spain) suggest a good upper threshold of 70% for the ancestral variant, while the value for the delta variant is around 90% (12).…”

Section: Aimmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ready for Vaccination? COVID-19 Vaccination Willingness of Older People in Austria

Richter

Schreml²,

Heidinger³

2022

Front. Public Health

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In spite of findings highlighting higher health risk from infection compared to younger people, a certain percentage of older people in Austria still lack a valid vaccination certificate. The current gaps in vaccination coverage in countries such as Austria are likely to be in large part due to vaccination refusal and pose or will pose problems for the health system and consequently for all of society should the initial findings on Omicron coronavirus infectivity prove true. Surprisingly, only a few studies around the globe explicitly address older people's COVID-19 vaccination willingness. The present work therefore intends to contribute to this field by identifying factors associated with the decision for or against a vaccination among the older population in Austria. Data collected between late 2020 and early 2021 via the cross-national panel study Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) are used to perform multinomial logistic regression to analyse differences between COVID-19 vaccination supporters, undecided persons and rejectors. The results show that persons exhibiting a low risk assessment toward COVID-19, less health protection behaviors, lower education and belonging to households with financial burdens are significantly more likely to refuse vaccination or be ambivalent. Although multimorbidity reduces risk of vaccination refusal, poor subjective health was significantly related to a higher risk of refusing vaccination. The results point to the importance of addressing the factors related to refusal. Only by understanding these factors will it be possible to increase vaccination rates and thus minimize other restrictive measures.

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Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden

Cited by 29 publications

References 58 publications

Risk Markers of COVID-19, a Study from South-Lebanon

Risk Markers of COVID-19, a Study from South-Lebanon

Performance of early warning signals for disease re-emergence: A case study on COVID-19 data

Ready for Vaccination? COVID-19 Vaccination Willingness of Older People in Austria

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