Modelling cropping periods of grain crops at the global scale

Minoli, Sara; Egli, D. B.; Rolinski, Susanne; Müller, Christoph

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.12.013

Cited by 47 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 230 publications

(490 reference statements)

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“…Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO 2 ]) on the other hand are expected to increase cotton yields as cotton is a C 3 crop (Kimball, 2016). Numerous free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) studies demonstrated a strong reaction of cotton yield and growth to an increased CO 2 concentration (Kimball, 1983; Cure and Acock, 1986;Hileman et al, 1994;Hendrix et al, 1994;Reddy et al, 1997;Mauney et al, 1994;Bhattacharya et al, 1994). Likewise, wateruse efficiency can be improved by CO 2 enrichment because it increases biomass and causes partial stomatal closure at the same time, consequently reducing transpiration (Mauney et al, 1994;Hileman et al, 1994;Broughton, 2015; Ko and Piccinni, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Numerous free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) studies demonstrated a strong reaction of cotton yield and growth to an increased CO 2 concentration (Kimball, 1983; Cure and Acock, 1986;Hileman et al, 1994;Hendrix et al, 1994;Reddy et al, 1997;Mauney et al, 1994;Bhattacharya et al, 1994). Likewise, wateruse efficiency can be improved by CO 2 enrichment because it increases biomass and causes partial stomatal closure at the same time, consequently reducing transpiration (Mauney et al, 1994;Hileman et al, 1994;Broughton, 2015; Ko and Piccinni, 2009). Crop models have been used to assess the effect of changing climate conditions on crop productivity, but the main focus has been on major staple crops -such as maize, wheat, rice, and soybean (e.g., Challinor et al, 2014;Rosenzweig et al, 2014;Müller et al, 2015;Pugh et al, 2016;Schleussner et al, 2018) -that provide the majority of calories to human nutrition (Yahia et al, 2019;Welch and Graham, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption

Jans

Bloh

Schaphoff

et al. 2021

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Being an extensively produced natural fiber on earth, cotton is of importance for economies. Although the plant is broadly adapted to varying environments, the growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To study the impacts of climate change on cotton productivity in different regions across the world and the irrigation water requirements related to it, we use the process-based, spatially detailed biosphere and hydrology model LPJmL (Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed land). We find our modeled cotton yield levels in good agreement with reported values and simulated water consumption of cotton production similar to published estimates. Following the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) protocol, we employ an ensemble of five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2011–2099 period to simulate future cotton yields. We find that irrigated cotton production does not suffer from climate change if CO2 effects are considered, whereas rainfed production is more sensitive to varying climate conditions. Considering the overall effect of a changing climate and CO2 fertilization, cotton production on current cropland steadily increases for most of the RCPs. Starting from ∼65 million tonnes in 2010, cotton production for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 equates to 83 and 92 million tonnes at the end of the century, respectively. Under RCP8.5, simulated global cotton production rises by more than 50 % by 2099. Taking only climate change into account, projected cotton production considerably shrinks in most scenarios, by up to one-third or 43 million tonnes under RCP8.5. The simulation of future virtual water content (VWC) of cotton grown under elevated CO2 results for all scenarios in less VWC compared to ambient CO2 conditions. Under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, VWC is notably decreased by more than 2000 m3 t−1 in areas where cotton is produced under purely rainfed conditions. By 2040, the average global VWC for cotton declines in all scenarios from currently 3300 to 3000 m3 t−1, and reduction continues by up to 30 % in 2100 under RCP8.5. While the VWC decreases by the CO2 effect, elevated temperature acts in the opposite direction. Ignoring beneficial CO2 effects, global VWC of cotton would increase for all RCPs except RCP2.6, reaching more than 5000 m3 t−1 by the end of the simulation period under RCP8.5. Given the economic relevance of cotton production, climate change poses an additional stress and deserves special attention. Changes in VWC and water demands for cotton production are of special importance, as cotton production is known for its intense water consumption. The implications of climate impacts on cotton production on the one hand and the impact of cotton production on water resources on the other hand illustrate the need to assess how future climate change may affect cotton production and its resource requirements. Our results should be regarded as optimistic, because of high uncertainty with respect to CO2 fertilization and the lack of implementing processes of boll abscission under heat stress. Still, the inclusion of cotton in LPJmL allows for various large-scale studies to assess impacts of climate change on hydrological factors and the implications for agricultural production and carbon sequestration.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption

Jans

Bloh

Schaphoff

et al. 2021

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

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show abstract

“…Although forecasts of future yields reductions can be made with simple statistical models based on regressions in historical weather data, processbased models, which simulate the effect of temperature, water and nutrient availability, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on the process of photosynthesis and the biology and phenology of individual crops, play a critical role in assessing the impacts 20 of climate change.Process-based models are necessary for understanding crop yields in novel conditions not included in historical data, including higher CO 2 levels, out-of-sample combinations of rainfall and temperature, cultivation in areas where crops are not currently grown, and differing management practices (e.g. Pugh et al, 2016;Roberts et al, 2017;Minoli et al, 2019). Processbased models have therefore been widely used in studies on future food security (Wheeler and Von Braun, 2013; Elliott et al, 25…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Process-based models are necessary for understanding crop yields in novel conditions not included in historical data, including higher CO 2 levels, out-of-sample combinations of rainfall and temperature, cultivation in areas where crops are not currently grown, and differing management practices (e.g. Pugh et al, 2016;Roberts et al, 2017;Minoli et al, 2019). Processbased models have therefore been widely used in studies on future food security (Wheeler and Von Braun, 2013; Elliott et al, 25…”

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confidence: 99%

The GGCMI Phase II experiment: global gridded crop model simulations under uniform changes in CO<sub>2</sub>, temperature, water, and nitrogen levels (protocol version 1.0)

Franke¹,

Müller²,

Elliott³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Process-based crop models, which represent plant physiological and soil processes, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate and management conditions not sampled in the historical record and new locations to which cultivation may shift. However, process-based crop models differ in many critical details, and their responses to different interacting factors remain only poorly understood. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase II experiment, an activity of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to provide a systematic parameter sweep focused on climate change factors and their interaction with overall soil fertility, to allow both evaluating model behavior and emulating model responses in impact assessment tools. In this paper we describe the GGCMI Phase II experimental protocol and its simulation data archive. Twelve crop models simulate five crops with systematic uniform perturbations of historical climate, varying CO2, temperature, water supply, and applied nitrogen (``CTWN'') for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, and a second set of simulations represents a type of adaptation by allowing the adjustment of growing season length. We present some crop yield results to illustrate general characteristics of the simulations and potential uses of the GGCMI Phase II archive. For example, modeled yields show robust decreases to warmer temperatures in almost all regions, with a nonlinear dependence that indicates yields in warmer baseline locations have greater temperature sensitivity. Inter-model uncertainty is qualitatively similar across all the four input dimensions, but is largest in high-latitude regions where crops may be grown in the future.

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“…Cotton is a perennial, indeterminate crop and cultivated species are generally photoperiodic insensitive. Consequently, warmer temperatures will increase the length of growing season if temperature seasonality is the limiting factor (Waha et al, 2012;Minoli et al, 2019) and sufficient water and nutrients are available (Bange and Milroy, 2004;Wang et al, 2008). Hence, one major effect that reduces crop yields in annual crops (Ottman et al, 2012;Asseng et al, 2015) is not as relevant for cotton.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption

Jans¹,

Bloh²,

Schaphoff³

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Being an extensively produced natural fiber on earth, cotton is of importance for economies. Although the plant is broadly adapted to varying environments, growth and irrigation water demand of cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To study the impacts of climate change on cotton productivity in different regions across the world and the irrigation water requirements related to it, we use the process-based, spatially detailed biosphere and hydrology model LPJmL. We find our modelled cotton yield levels in good agreement with reported values and simulated water consumption of cotton production similar to published estimates. Following the ISIMIP protocol, we employ an ensemble of five General Circulation Models under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the 2011–2099 period to simulate future cotton yields. We find that irrigated cotton production does not suffer from climate change if CO2 effects are considered, whereas rainfed production is more sensitive to varying climate conditions. Considering the overall effect of a changing climate and CO2 fertilization, cotton production on current cropland steadily increases for most of the RCPs. Starting from ~ 65 million tonnes in 2010, cotton production for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 equates to 83 and 92 million tonnes at the end of the century, respectively. Under RCP8.5, simulated global cotton production raises by more than 50 % by 2099. Taking only climate change into account, projected cotton production considerably shrinks in most scenarios, by up to one-third or 43 million tonnes under RCP8.5. The simulation of future virtual water content (VWC) of cotton grown under elevated CO2 results for all scenarios in less VWC compared to ambient CO2 conditions. Under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, VWC is notably decreased by more than 2000 m3 t−1 in areas where cotton is produced under purely rainfed conditions. By 2040, the average global VWC for cotton declines in all scenarios from currently 3300 to 3000 m3 t−1 and reduction continues by up to 30 % in 2100 under RCP8.5. While the VWC decreases by the CO2 effect, elevated temperature (and thus water stress) reverse the picture. Except for RCP2.6, the global VWC of cotton increase slightly but steadily under the other RCPs until mid century. RCP8.5 results in an average global VWC of more than 5000 m3 t−1 by end of the simulation period. Given the economic relevance of cotton production, climate change poses an additional stress and deserves special attention. Changes in VWC and water demands for cotton production are of special importance, as cotton production is known for its intense water consumption that led, e.g., to the loss of most of the Aral sea. The implications of climate impacts on cotton production on the one hand, and the impact of cotton production on water resources on the other hand illustrate the need to assess how future climate change may affect cotton production and its resource requirements. The inclusion of cotton in LPJmL allows for various large-scale studies to assess impacts of climate change on hydrological factors and the implications for agricultural production and carbon sequestration.

show abstract

Modelling cropping periods of grain crops at the global scale

Cited by 47 publications

References 230 publications

Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption

Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption

The GGCMI Phase II experiment: global gridded crop model simulations under uniform changes in CO<sub>2</sub>, temperature, water, and nitrogen levels (protocol version 1.0)

Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption

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Modelling cropping periods of grain crops at the global scale

Cited by 47 publications

References 230 publications

Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption

Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption

The GGCMI Phase II experiment: global gridded crop model simulations under uniform changes in CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;, temperature, water, and nitrogen levels (protocol version 1.0)

Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption

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The GGCMI Phase II experiment: global gridded crop model simulations under uniform changes in CO<sub>2</sub>, temperature, water, and nitrogen levels (protocol version 1.0)