Modelling Diffusion of Wind Power Across Countries

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse the diffusion mechanism of wind power over the last two decades in the leading countries, namely China, the United States, Germany, India and Spain. For each country, three prominent models of technology diffusion (Logistic, Bass and Gompertz) were fitted and the best model is identified based on AIC, BIC and adjusted R 2 criteria. The selected diffusion model in each case is then characterised with respect to the policy mechanisms. Often, research follows the "one size fits all" approach and tends to propose one model to define diffusion for all. Here we find that it is not necessarily true. The study then proposes the causal relationship between parameters of the selected model and corresponding policies along with the socioeconomic structure for a country to corroborate our findings. Further, forecasts were generated to predict the saturation point of the diffusion path and solutions are proposed to expand the diffusion curve.

Impact of Local Factors on Decision Making – A Multi Criteria Modelling Framework in Wind Energy Investment

“…Infrastructure has more weight than raw material characteristics due to inability to use raw material owing to infrastructure issues. Countries including India and China are facing issues related to load management in terms of managing reserve capacity and underutilization of networks which has resulted in utilities refusing to accept wind power by the grid 3 . Germany was able to increase its wind energy share in total energy by addressing some factors pertaining to infrastructural issues related to locallevel distribution systems 25 .…”

“…Studies have shown that the decision to install wind power plants is influenced by national 3 , state 4 and local factors 5 . Here we focus on local factors as they are more closely associated with on-field characteristics.…”