Modelling direct and herd protection effects of vaccination against the SARS‐CoV‐2 Delta variant in Australia

McBryde, Emma S.; Meehan, Michael T.; Caldwell, Jamie M.; Adekunle, Adeshina I.; Ogunlade, Samson; Kuddus, Md Abdul; Ragonnet, Romain; Jayasundara, Pavithra; Trauer, James M.; Cope, Robert C.

doi:10.5694/mja2.51263

Cited by 25 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 16 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The emergence of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant in Southeast Asia changed the epidemiology of COVID-19 disease. This variant is transmitted more easily and thus requires a higher threshold for herd immunity [ 21 ]. According to Our World in Data, as of 31 August 2021, the share of the Delta variant has reached almost 100% in many countries [ 13 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seropositivity of SARS-CoV-2 in the Population of Kazakhstan: A Nationwide Laboratory-Based Surveillance

Semenova

Kalmatayeva

Oshibayeva

et al. 2022

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The data on seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Kazakhstani population are non-existent, but are needed for planning of public health interventions targeted to COVID-19 containment. The aim of the study was to estimate the seropositivity of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Kazakhstani population from 2020 to 2021. We relied on the data obtained from the results from “IN VITRO” laboratories of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for class G immunoglobulins (IgG) and class M (IgM) to SARS-CoV-2. The association of COVID-19 seropositivity was assessed in relation to age, gender, and region of residence. Additionally, we related the monitoring of longitudinal seropositivity with COVID-19 statistics obtained from Our World in Data. The total numbers of tests were 68,732 for SARS-CoV-2 IgM and 85,346 for IgG, of which 22% and 63% were positive, respectively. The highest rates of positive anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM results were seen during July/August 2020. The rate of IgM seropositivity was the lowest on 25 October 2020 (2%). The lowest daily rate of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG was 17% (13 December 2020), while the peak of IgG seropositivity was seen on 6 June 2021 (84%). A longitudinal serological study should be envisaged to facilitate understanding of the dynamics of the epidemiological situation and to forecast future scenarios.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seropositivity of SARS-CoV-2 in the Population of Kazakhstan: A Nationwide Laboratory-Based Surveillance

Semenova

Kalmatayeva

Oshibayeva

et al. 2022

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, when the value of the effective reproduction number is 3, the mixed program can achieve herd immunity at 60-70% coverage without vaccinating 5-15 years of age. The general finding of this study was that vaccination can prevent 85% of death compared to without vaccination [66].…”

Section: Models With Age Structure and Vaccinationmentioning

confidence: 62%

“…Table 2 presents a tabulated summary of the current models that include the vaccination strategies specifically focused on China, the UK, and Australia. For instance, McBryde et al ( 2021) developed a COVID-19 model with a vaccination to explore the direct and indirect effects of vaccination by vaccine type, age strategy, and coverage in Australia [66]. The model incorporated some crucial factors, including age-specific mixing, infectiousness, susceptibility and severity, to examine the epidemic under different intervention scenarios.…”

Section: Models With Age Structure and Vaccinationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of COVID-19 Modelling Strategies in Three Countries to Develop a Research Framework for Regional Areas

Rahman

Kuddus

et al. 2021

Viruses

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

At the end of December 2019, an outbreak of COVID-19 occurred in Wuhan city, China. Modelling plays a crucial role in developing a strategy to prevent a disease outbreak from spreading around the globe. Models have contributed to the perspicacity of epidemiological variations between and within nations and the planning of desired control strategies. In this paper, a literature review was conducted to summarise knowledge about COVID-19 disease modelling in three countries—China, the UK and Australia—to develop a robust research framework for the regional areas that are urban and rural health districts of New South Wales, Australia. In different aspects of modelling, summarising disease and intervention strategies can help policymakers control the outbreak of COVID-19 and may motivate modelling disease-related research at a finer level of regional geospatial scales in the future.

show abstract

“…Unfortunately, many viruses tend to develop new variants, with a possible significant change in the contagiousness C and C 3 of the virus. Recently, searchers estimated a (pre-vaccination) R 0 value around 5 with the delta variant of SARS-Cov-2 [26, 27] such that contagiousness is roughly doubled compared to our baseline scenario. In such condition, vaccinating 78% of the whole population would be necessary to stop the epidemics (R=0.97, Scenario S).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lessons from a pandemic

Eggli

Rousson

2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Objectives : Several interventions have been used around the world trying to contain the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic, such as quarantine, prohibition of mass demonstrations, isolation of sick people, tracing of virus carriers, semi-containment, promotion of barrier gestures, development of rapid auto-tests and vaccines among others. We propose a simple model to evaluate the potential impact of such interventions. Methods : A model for the reproduction number of an infectious disease including three main contexts of infection (indoor mass events, public indoor activities and household) and seven parameters is considered. We illustrate how these parameters could be obtained from the literature or from expert assumptions, and we apply the model to describe 20 scenarios that can typically occur during the different phases of a pandemic. Results : This model provides a useful framework for better understanding and communicating the effects of different (combinations of) possible interventions, while encouraging constant updating of expert assumptions to better match reality. Conclusion : This simple approach will bring more transparency and public support to help governments to think, decide, evaluate and adjust what to do during a pandemic.

show abstract

Modelling direct and herd protection effects of vaccination against the SARS‐CoV‐2 Delta variant in Australia

Cited by 25 publications

References 16 publications

Seropositivity of SARS-CoV-2 in the Population of Kazakhstan: A Nationwide Laboratory-Based Surveillance

Seropositivity of SARS-CoV-2 in the Population of Kazakhstan: A Nationwide Laboratory-Based Surveillance

A Review of COVID-19 Modelling Strategies in Three Countries to Develop a Research Framework for Regional Areas

Lessons from a pandemic

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About