Modelling distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus using climate, host density and interspecies competition

Abstract

Florida faces the challenge of repeated introduction and autochthonous transmission of arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Empirically-based predictive models of the spatial distribution of these species would aid surveillance and vector control efforts. To predict the occurrence and abundance of these species, we fit a mixed-effects zero-inflated negative binomial regression to a mosquito surveillance dataset with records from more than 200,000 trap days, representative of 53% of the land area and ranging from 2004 to 2018 in Florida. We found an asymmetrical competitive interaction between adult populations of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus for the sampled sites. Wind speed was negatively associated with the occurrence and abundance of both vectors. Our model predictions show high accuracy (72.9% to 94.5%) in validation tests leaving out a random 10% subset of sites and data since 2017, suggesting a potential for predicting the distribution of the two Aedes vectors.

The association between dengue case and climate: A systematic review and meta-analysis

“…albopictus [ 28 , 29 ], and the abundance of eggs and adults of Ae. aegypti [ 30 , 31 ]. It is attributable to eggs hatching inside containers after flooding and vegetation growth after rains [ 32 ].…”

Species-specific climate Suitable Conditions Index and dengue transmission in Guangdong, China

“…aegypti have been reported because of the superiority of Ae. albopictus in the competition for resources at the larval stage and asymmetric sterilisation at the adult stage following interspecific mating [ 52 ]. It has also been supposed that Ae.…”

Digital and technological innovation in vector-borne disease surveillance to predict, detect, and control climate-driven outbreaks

“…Many studies use data that is provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration or national databases and apply an inverse weighting method to interpolate local weather conditions. 17 Other studies use data that are collected from a network of weather stations, some of which can be located some way outside of urban areas. 18 Data that are collected in this way might not detect the effects of urban heat islands that some cities have, a factor that In addition to mean temperature, the amount of temperature fluctuation is also influential in larval development time, larval survival, and adult reproduction of A aegypti.…”