Modelling energy transitions for climate targets under landscape and actor inertia

Li, Francis G.N.; Strachan, Neil

doi:10.1016/j.eist.2016.08.002

Cited by 58 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 83 publications

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“…This single pathway relies on a linear programing approach that optimises the total costs of the whole modelled system. Such an approach delivers solutions that are assumed to arise from the action of a benevolent social planning agent maximising the total welfare in the system [60].…”

Section: The State Of the Art In Energy Systems Models And Uncertaintmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050

Trutnevyte

2017

Applied Energy

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Deep decarbonisation of the electricity sector is central to achieving the United Kingdom's (UK) climate policy targets for 2050 and meeting its international commitments under the Paris Agreement. While the overall strategy for decarbonising the energy system has been well established in previous studies, there remain deep uncertainties around the total investment cost requirements for the power system. The future of the power system is of critical importance because low carbon electricity may create significant opportunities for emissions reduction in buildings and transport. A key policy application of quantitative analysis using models is to explore how much investment needs to be mobilised for the energy transition. However, past estimates of energy transition costs for the UK power sector have focused only on 2030 rather than 2050 and consider a relatively narrow range of uncertainties. This paper addresses this important research gap. The UK government's main whole system energy economy model is linked to a power system model that employs an advanced approach to uncertainty analysis, combining Monte Carlo simulation with Modelling-to-Generate Alternatives (MGA), producing 800 different scenario pathways. These pathways simultaneously consider uncertainties in policy, technology and costs. The results show that with No Climate Policy, installed generation capacities in 2050 are found in the range 60-75GW, while under an 80% Reduction in GHG Emissions, between 100GW and 130GW of plant are required. Meeting climate targets for 2050 is also found to increase the investment requirements for new electricity generation. The interquartile range for cumulative investments in new generation under the No Climate Policy scenario ranges from £60bn to £75bn, while under an 80% Reduction in GHG Emissions, investment requirements approximately double to £110bn -£140bn. The exercise demonstrates the importance of uncertainty analysis to policy evaluation, yielding insights for future research practice both in the UK and internationally.

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Section: The State Of the Art In Energy Systems Models And Uncertaintmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050

Trutnevyte

2017

Applied Energy

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“…Socio-technical analysis is sometimes combined with political analysis ( [59,32,60,61]) or with energy-economy modelling for future scenario building [62][63][64][65][66]. However, only a few studies offer general blueprints for interdisciplinary integration.…”

Section: 2mentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating techno-economic, socio-technical and political perspectives on national energy transitions: A meta-theoretical framework

Cherp

Vinichenko²,

Jewell

et al. 2018

Energy Research & Social Science

425

216

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A B S T R A C TEconomic development, technological innovation, and policy change are especially prominent factors shaping energy transitions. Therefore explaining energy transitions requires combining insights from disciplines investigating these factors. The existing literature is not consistent in identifying these disciplines nor proposing how they can be combined. We conceptualize national energy transitions as a co-evolution of three types of systems: energy flows and markets, energy technologies, and energy-related policies. The focus on the three types of systems gives rise to three perspectives on national energy transitions: techno-economic with its roots in energy systems analysis and various domains of economics; socio-technical with its roots in sociology of technology, STS, and evolutionary economics; and political with its roots in political science. We use the three perspectives as an organizing principle to propose a meta-theoretical framework for analyzing national energy transitions. Following Elinor Ostrom's approach, the proposed framework explains national energy transitions through a nested conceptual map of variables and theories. In comparison with the existing meta-theoretical literature, the three perspectives framework elevates the role of political science since policies are likely to be increasingly prominent in shaping 21st century energy transitions.

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“…Cambridge Econometrics, 2013Econometrics, , 2015Carbon Trust, 2005;Edenhofer et al, 2010). This is an issue that has been debated for many years (Grubb, Carraro, & Schellnhuber, 2006;Grubb, Edmonds, Ten Brink, & Morrison, 1993;Grubb, Köhler, & Anderson, 2002) While there is an ongoing debate on how to improve the realism of technological change and agent behaviour by using model experiments (Holtz et al, 2015;Li & Strachan, 2017;Li, Trutnevyte, & Strachan, 2015;McCollum et al, 2017;McCollum et al, 2018a;Pettifor, Wilson, McCollum, & Edelenbosch, 2017;Trutnevyte, 2016), none of these experiments challenge representations of investment, money and finance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory, perspectives and practical use

et al. 2019

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Energy and climate policies may have significant economy-wide impacts, which are regularly assessed based on quantitative energy-environment-economy models. These tend to vary in their conclusions on the scale and direction of the likely macroeconomic impacts of a low-carbon transition. This paper traces the characteristic discrepancies in models' outcomes to their origins in different macroeconomic theories, most importantly their treatment of technological innovation and finance. We comprehensively analyse the relevant branches of macroinnovation theory and group them into two classes: 'Equilibrium' and 'Nonequilibrium'. While both approaches are rigorous and self-consistent, they frequently yield opposite conclusions for the economic impacts of low-carbon policies. We show that model outcomes are mainly determined by their representations of monetary and finance dimensions, and their interactions with investment, innovation and technological change. Improving these in all modelling approaches is crucial for strengthening the evidence base for policy making and gaining a more consistent picture of the macroeconomic impacts of achieving emissions reductions objectives. The paper contributes towards the ongoing effort of enhancing the transparency and understanding of sophisticated model mechanisms applied to energy and climate policy analysis. It helps tackle the overall 'black box' critique, much-cited in policy circles and elsewhere.Key policy insights . Quantitative models commissioned by policy-makers to assess the macroeconomic impacts of climate policy generate contradictory outcomes and interpretations. . The source of the differences in model outcomes originates primarily from assumptions on the workings of the financial sector and the nature of money, and of how these interact with processes of low-carbon energy innovation and technological change. . Representations of innovation and technological change are incomplete in energyeconomy-environment models, leading to limitations in the assessment of the impacts of climate-related policies. . All modelling studies should state clearly their underpinning theoretical school and their treatment of finance and innovation. . A strong recommendation is given for modellers of energy-economy systems to improve their representations of money and finance. ARTICLE HISTORY

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Modelling energy transitions for climate targets under landscape and actor inertia

Cited by 58 publications

References 83 publications

Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050

Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050

Integrating techno-economic, socio-technical and political perspectives on national energy transitions: A meta-theoretical framework

Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory, perspectives and practical use

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