Modelling future patterns of urbanization, residential energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Dar es Salaam with the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways

Luo, Chibulu; Posen, I. Daniel; Hoornweg, Daniel; MacLean, Heather L.

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.119998

Cited by 24 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Currently, because of the rapid urbanization, 55% of the world population lives in urban areas and it is projected that in 2050 this will be 68% (Sampson et al, 2020). This urbanization consumes a considerable amount of electricity while most of the country depends on the imported fossil fuel energy sources to generate that electricity (Foster et al, 2020;Luo et al, 2020;Su, 2019;Xie et al, 2020). Also, the economic growth of a nation increases with urbanization (Gasimli et al, 2019).…”

Section: Environmental Economic and Societal Viability Of Bipv/bapvmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential of building integrated and attached/applied photovoltaic (BIPV/BAPV) for adaptive less energy-hungry building’s skin: A comprehensive review

Ghosh

2020

Journal of Cleaner Production

223

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Section: Environmental Economic and Societal Viability Of Bipv/bapvmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential of building integrated and attached/applied photovoltaic (BIPV/BAPV) for adaptive less energy-hungry building’s skin: A comprehensive review

Ghosh

2020

Journal of Cleaner Production

223

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“…The gridded population projections for all SSPs during 2021–2100 at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km are available from the Spatial Population Scenario database . This demographic projection dataset has been previously verified and has been used to project heat-related excess mortality , and to model future patterns of urbanization …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global PM_2.5 Prediction and Associated Mortality to 2100 under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Chen

Yuan

et al. 2023

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) has severe adverse health impacts, making it crucial to reduce PM 2.5 exposure for public health. Meteorological and emissions factors, which considerably affect the PM 2.5 concentrations in the atmosphere, vary substantially under different climate change scenarios. In this work, global PM 2.5 concentrations from 2021 to 2100 were generated by combining the deep learning technique, reanalysis data, emission data, and bias-corrected CMIP6 future climate scenario data. Based on the estimated PM 2.5 concentrations, the future premature mortality burden was assessed using the Global Exposure Mortality Model. Our results reveal that SSP3-7.0 scenario is associated with the highest PM 2.5 exposure, with a global concentration of 34.5 μg/m 3 in 2100, while SSP1-2.6 scenario has the lowest exposure, with an estimated of 15.7 μg/m 3 in 2100. PM 2.5 -related deaths for individuals under 75 years will decrease by 16.3 and 10.5% under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, from 2030s to 2090s. However, premature mortality for elderly individuals (>75 years) will increase, causing the contrary trends of improved air quality and increased total PM 2.5 -related deaths in the four SSPs. Our results emphasize the need for stronger air pollution mitigation measures to offset the future burden posed by population age.

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“…Urban transport, a key component of cities’ economic development, emits around 14% of urban GHG emissions, mostly from passenger land-based systems . While the majority of these GHG emissions come from higher-income countries, important growth is expected in countries with increasing urbanization rates that are in Asia and in Africa . It is therefore critical to mitigating GHG emissions from urban passenger land transport to achieve ambitious climate targets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…4 While the majority of these GHG emissions come from higherincome countries, important growth is expected in countries with increasing urbanization rates that are in Asia 5 and in Africa. 6 It is therefore critical to mitigating GHG emissions from urban passenger land transport to achieve ambitious climate targets.…”

Section: ■ Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Pathways for Urban Passenger Land Transport under Ambitious Climate Targets

Milovanoff

Minet

Cheah

et al. 2021

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Urban passenger land transport is an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally, but it is challenging to mitigate these emissions as this sector interacts with many other economic sectors. We develop the Climate change constrained Urban passenger Transport Integrated Life cycle assessment (CURTAIL) model to outline mitigation pathways of urban passenger land transport that are consistent with ambitious climate targets. CURTAIL uses the transport activity of exogenously defined modal shares to simulate the associated annual vehicle stocks, sales, and life cycle GHG emissions. It estimates GHG emission budgets that are consistent with global warming below 2 and 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and seeks mitigation strategies to remain within the budgets. We apply it to a case study of Singapore, a city-state. Meeting a 1.5 °C target requires strong commitments in the transport and electricity sectors, such as reducing the motorized passenger activity, accelerating the deployment of public transit and of electrification, and decarbonizing the power generation system. Focusing on one mitigation technology or one mode of transport alone will not be sufficient to meet the target. Our novel model could be applied to any city to provide insights relevant to the design of urban climate change mitigation targets and policies.

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Modelling future patterns of urbanization, residential energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Dar es Salaam with the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways

Cited by 24 publications

References 47 publications

Potential of building integrated and attached/applied photovoltaic (BIPV/BAPV) for adaptive less energy-hungry building’s skin: A comprehensive review

Potential of building integrated and attached/applied photovoltaic (BIPV/BAPV) for adaptive less energy-hungry building’s skin: A comprehensive review

Global PM_2.5 Prediction and Associated Mortality to 2100 under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Pathways for Urban Passenger Land Transport under Ambitious Climate Targets

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Modelling future patterns of urbanization, residential energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Dar es Salaam with the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways

Cited by 24 publications

References 47 publications

Potential of building integrated and attached/applied photovoltaic (BIPV/BAPV) for adaptive less energy-hungry building’s skin: A comprehensive review

Potential of building integrated and attached/applied photovoltaic (BIPV/BAPV) for adaptive less energy-hungry building’s skin: A comprehensive review

Global PM2.5 Prediction and Associated Mortality to 2100 under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Pathways for Urban Passenger Land Transport under Ambitious Climate Targets

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Global PM_2.5 Prediction and Associated Mortality to 2100 under Different Climate Change Scenarios