Modelling future safe and just operating spaces in regional social-ecological systems

Cooper, Gregory S.; Dearing, John A.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.118

Cited by 34 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…In that case, a recent analysis of coupled regime shifts 37 helps to identify two possible reasons why disproportionately high complexity in large ecosystems may instil resilience against a system reaching a regime shift, but once triggered provides favourable structures for failure: (1) there is a greater probability in larger systems that a 'shared' driver initiates synchronous failure in sub-system 'modules' at more than one location; and (2) there is a greater probability that the weak feedback mechanisms that maintain the stability of large, mature systems will be dominated by the emergence of stronger, 'hidden' feedbacks that progressively raise the probability that the failure of one sub-system will affect the stability of a neighbour. These two points are illustrated, respectively, by current concerns about the effects of disparate fires on the long-term resilience of the Amazon forest to climate change 25 ; and the rapid spread of recent (2019-20) bush fires in SW Australia caused by existing fires igniting further fires 38 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The LC model can be obtained from the following URL: https://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/LanguageChange Lake Chilika fishery (CHL) system dynamics model. The CHL model 25 was built to investigate the future social-ecological sustainability of the Chilika lagoon-Asia's largest brackish water ecosystem-located in Odisha, India. Essentially, the model simulates the coupled effects of various biophysical and socioeconomic pressures on the fish stock.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…lake salinity, which is a proxy for lake sedimentation and tidal outlet closure) to be reversed back past the point that caused the original transition. The model is available on reasonable request from the authors of the original study 25 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We substantiate these real-world relationships with five freely available computational models: Wolf-Sheep Predation (WSP) 21 , Game of Life (GoL) 22 , Language Change (LC) 23,24 , Lake Chilika fishery (CHL) 25 and Spatial Heterogeneity (SH) 2 which show the potential spatial characteristics behind the empirical relationships (Table 1 and Methods). A total of twelve ecological modelling experiments were designed to unravel the hypothesised effects of scale, fluidity, modularity, and the heterogeneity of connections on the duration of regime shifts (Table 1 and Fig.…”

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confidence: 87%

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Regime shifts occur disproportionately faster in larger ecosystems

2020

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Regime shifts can abruptly affect hydrological, climatic and terrestrial systems, leading to degraded ecosystems and impoverished societies. While the frequency of regime shifts is predicted to increase, the fundamental relationships between the spatial-temporal scales of shifts and their underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Here we analyse empirical data from terrestrial (n = 4), marine (n = 25) and freshwater (n = 13) environments and show positive sub-linear empirical relationships between the size and shift duration of systems. Each additional unit area of an ecosystem provides an increasingly smaller unit of time taken for that system to collapse, meaning that large systems tend to shift more slowly than small systems but disproportionately faster. We substantiate these findings with five computational models that reveal the importance of system structure in controlling shift duration. The findings imply that shifts in Earth ecosystems occur over 'human' timescales of years and decades, meaning the collapse of large vulnerable ecosystems, such as the Amazon rainforest and Caribbean coral reefs, may take only a few decades once triggered.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 87%

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Regime shifts occur disproportionately faster in larger ecosystems

2020

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“…These studies depart from the most commonly used indicators of the doughnut framework and express the need for systems models integrating both social and biophysical data (Dearing et al, ). More recently, Copper and Dearing () proposed a modelling approach to compare fish catch scenarios to conditions that are environmentally, socially and economically expected. Although conducted at a local scale, the authors were able to include driver interactions and feedbacks to identify future ‘safe and just operating spaces’.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A complex systems framework for the sustainability doughnut

et al. 2019

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1. Achieving sustainability is challenging as an environmental and socio-economic objective, and as a complex concept whose multiple components and their interactions need to be considered.2. We develop a statistical model to investigate relationships among and between the planetary boundaries and social foundations of the sustainability 'doughnut' model. We find over 35 direct and indirect, positive and negative, influences of varying magnitude among seven boundaries (biodiversity loss, climate change, ocean acidification, land use, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, atmospheric aerosol loading and freshwater use) and eleven foundations (energy, income, health, education, food, water, gender equality, resilience, jobs, voice and social equity).3. We observe that biodiversity loss is driven by other planetary boundaries (landuse change and freshwater use), but also a social foundation (jobs, measured as vulnerable employment). The planetary boundaries of freshwater use and land use are also related: freshwater use is higher in urban centres than in rural areas.The planetary boundary of climate change is also related to land use (the extent of agricultural lands), and the social foundation of income per capita (greater income, higher carbon dioxide emissions). 4. We also find that several social foundations are themselves interrelated. For example gender equality (measured as female participation in the work force) is mainly predicted by vulnerable employment. Also, food deficit increases with poverty level, but is alleviated by access to clean water. Education (literacy rate) and social equity (social insurance) can both lift people out of poverty. These inter-relations suggest that both synergies and trade-offs exist between and within boundaries and foundations. 5. We provide a new conceptual framework that moves us away from the doughnut approach towards one that can begin to address the complex interactions that sustainability scientists and policy makers face when trying to maintain multiple social foundations while not compromising any of the planetary boundaries. We illustrate several hypothesis-based relationships here, to suggest that everything is not related to everything else. It is possible to work out significant pathways within this complex system, which is necessary to implement policies. Re sil ien ce equ ality Jo bs En er gy Re sil ien ce equ ality ty Jo bs En er gy | 499 People and Nature CAPMOURTERES ET Al.

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Bridging the divide between ecological forecasts and environmental decision making

et al. 2021

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The rate of human-induced environmental change continues to accelerate, stimulating the need for rapid and science-based decision making. The recent availability of cyberinfrastructure, open-source data and novel techniques has increased opportunities to use ecological forecasts to predict environmental change. But to effectively inform environmental decision making, forecasts should not only be reliable, but should also be designed to address the needs of decision makers with their assumptions, uncertainties, and results clearly communicated. To help researchers better integrate forecasting into decision making, we outline ten practical guidelines to help navigate the interdisciplinary and collaborative nature of forecasting in social-ecological systems. Some guidelines focus on improving forecasting skills, including how to build better models, account for uncertainties and use technologies to improve their utility, while others are developed to facilitate the integration of forecasts with decision making, including how to form effective partnerships and how to design forecasts relevant to the specific decision being addressed. We hope these guidelines help researchers make forecasts more accurate, precise, transparent, and most pressingly, useful for informing environmental decisions.

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Modelling future safe and just operating spaces in regional social-ecological systems

Cited by 34 publications

References 56 publications

Regime shifts occur disproportionately faster in larger ecosystems

Regime shifts occur disproportionately faster in larger ecosystems

A complex systems framework for the sustainability doughnut

Bridging the divide between ecological forecasts and environmental decision making

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