Modelling how face masks and symptoms-based quarantine synergistically and cost-effectively reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Bangladesh

Ferguson, Elaine A.; Brum, Eric; Chowdhury, Anir; Chowdhury, Shayan; Kundegorski, Mikolaj; Mahmud, Ayesha S.; Purno, Nabila; Sania, Ayesha; Steenson, Rachel; Tasneem, Motahara; Hampson, Katie

doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100592

Cited by 7 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Nevertheless, as Bajiya et al [78] have shown, the lockdown's prolonged implementation is not recommended and might not prove cost effective. Testing and serological surveillance [79], and wearing masks along with quarantining and isolation [12], have proven beneficial when reopening after a lockdown.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lockdowns restricted human mobility [3,4], and, thus, the spread of the virus. The global evidence suggests that strict mobility restrictions reduced COVID-19 cases and COVID-19-related deaths [5][6][7][8] in high-income [9][10][11] as well as low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) [12]. The localized lockdowns were also impactful, especially during the resurgence of the pandemic after July 2020 [13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The length and timing of implementing the lockdowns became critical considerations, and they are often ignored when measuring their cost effectiveness. Studies suggest that the optimal time period for implementing a lockdown could be 4 weeks [15], two months [12], or between 55 and 83 days [20]. Regarding the timing of implementation, researchers argued that the partial, inadequate, and/or delayed implementation of lockdowns was responsible for the continuous surge in COVID-19 cases [21,22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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COVID-19 Pandemic: Did Strict Mobility Restrictions Save Lives and Healthcare Costs in Maharashtra, India?

2023

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Introduction: Maharashtra, India, remained a hotspot during the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial complete lockdown, the state slowly relaxed restrictions. We aim to estimate the lockdown’s impact on COVID-19 cases and associated healthcare costs. Methods: Using daily case data for 84 days (9 March–31 May 2020), we modeled the epidemic’s trajectory and predicted new cases for different phases of lockdown. We fitted log-linear models to estimate the growth rate, basic (R0), daily reproduction number (Re), and case doubling time. Based on pre-restriction and Phase 1 R0, we predicted new cases for the rest of the restriction phases, and we compared them with the actual number of cases during each phase. Furthermore, using the published and gray literature, we estimated the costs and savings of implementing these restrictions for the projected period, and we performed a sensitivity analysis. Results: The estimated median R0 during the different phases was 1.14 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.45) for pre-lockdown, 1.67 (95% CI: 1.50, 1.82) for phase 1 (strict mobility restrictions), 1.24 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.35) for phase 2 (extension of phase 1 with no restrictions on agricultural and essential services), 1.12 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.23) for phase 3 (extension of phase 2 with mobility relaxations in areas with few infections), and 1.05 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.123) for phase 4 (implementation of localized lockdowns in high-case-load areas with fewer restrictions on other areas), respectively. The corresponding doubling time rate for cases (in days) was 17.78 (95% CI: 5.61, −15.19), 3.87 (95% CI: 3.15, 5.00), 10.37 (95% CI: 7.10, 19.30), 20.31 (95% CI: 10.70, 212.50), and 45.56 (95% CI: 20.50, –204.52). For the projected period, the cases could have reached 631,819 without the lockdown, as the actual reported number of cases was 64,975. From a healthcare perspective, the estimated total value of averted cases was INR 194.73 billion (USD 2.60 billion), resulting in net cost savings of 84.05%. The Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) for implementing the lockdown, rather than observing the natural course of the pandemic, was INR 33,812.15 (USD 450.83). Conclusion: Maharashtra’s early public health response delayed the pandemic and averted new cases and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic. However, we recommend that such restrictions be carefully used while considering the local socio-economic realities in countries like India.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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COVID-19 Pandemic: Did Strict Mobility Restrictions Save Lives and Healthcare Costs in Maharashtra, India?

2023

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“…In their investigation, they came to the conclusion that, even if treatment can reduce the spread of COVID-19, lowering the effective contact rate is the best way for people and the government to do so. Additionally, a mathematical model that can evaluate the effect of mask use on the general populace was proposed in [10], and a SIR COVID-19 pandemic model was investigated using statistical methods in [11].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Conceptual analysis of the combined effects of vaccination, therapeutic actions, and human subjection to physical constraint in reducing the prevalence of COVID-19 using the homotopy perturbation method

Kolawole

Olayiwola

Alaje

et al. 2023

Beni-Suef Univ J Basic Appl Sci

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Background The COVID-19 pandemic has put the world's survival in jeopardy. Although the virus has been contained in certain parts of the world after causing so much grief, the risk of it emerging in the future should not be overlooked because its existence cannot be shown to be completely eradicated. Results This study investigates the impact of vaccination, therapeutic actions, and compliance rate of individuals to physical limitations in a newly developed SEIQR mathematical model of COVID-19. A qualitative investigation was conducted on the mathematical model, which included validating its positivity, existence, uniqueness, and boundedness. The disease-free and endemic equilibria were found, and the basic reproduction number was derived and utilized to examine the mathematical model's local and global stability. The mathematical model's sensitivity index was calculated equally, and the homotopy perturbation method was utilized to derive the estimated result of each compartment of the model. Numerical simulation carried out using Maple 18 software reveals that the COVID-19 virus's prevalence might be lowered if the actions proposed in this study are applied. Conclusion It is the collective responsibility of all individuals to fight for the survival of the human race against COVID-19. We urged that all persons, including the government, researchers, and health-care personnel, use the findings of this research to remove the presence of the dangerous COVID-19 virus.

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“…In these papers, though in general the policies were those being considered globally, the timing of these questions and the specifics of the policy were relevant to the specific country at the time the work was conducted. The policies covered include use of facemasks in Bangladesh in 2020 ( Ferguson et al, 2022 ), and particular vaccination policies in Malaysia ( Jayasundara et al, 2021 ). Close collaboration between academia and policy makers can be seen in these papers.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemic SI COVID-19 modeling in LMICs: Accompanying commentary

Pan‐Ngum¹,

Clapham

Dawa

et al. 2022

Epidemics

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Modelling how face masks and symptoms-based quarantine synergistically and cost-effectively reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Bangladesh

Cited by 7 publications

References 52 publications

COVID-19 Pandemic: Did Strict Mobility Restrictions Save Lives and Healthcare Costs in Maharashtra, India?

COVID-19 Pandemic: Did Strict Mobility Restrictions Save Lives and Healthcare Costs in Maharashtra, India?

Conceptual analysis of the combined effects of vaccination, therapeutic actions, and human subjection to physical constraint in reducing the prevalence of COVID-19 using the homotopy perturbation method

Epidemic SI COVID-19 modeling in LMICs: Accompanying commentary

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