Modelling Land Use, Deforestation, and Policy: A Hybrid Optimisation-Heterogeneous Agent Model with Application to the Bolivian Amazon

Andersen, Lykke E.; Groom, Ben; Killick, Evan; Ledezma, Juan Carlos; Palmer, Charles; Weinhold, Diana

doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.12.033

Cited by 17 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…In addition, our analysis shows that PAs play an important role in the sustainability of the forest ecosystem in the BLA and are a powerful weapon in the fight to reduce deforestation and forest degradation -a conclusion that matches those of a number of authors (Bebber & Butt, 2017;Lee et al, 2007;Nicolle and Leroy, 2017;Soares-Filho et al, 2010). However, care is needed to ensure that local people are not adversely affected by the implementation of conservative measures (Andersen et al, 2017). The real challenge is to achieve two simultaneous compromises: between conservation measures and anti-poverty programs that enable families to increase their incomes; and between a reduction in poverty and the preservation of the forest and respect for the right of Amerindians to use their territory.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 59%

Deforestation pattern dynamics in protected areas of the Brazilian Legal Amazon using remote sensing data

et al. 2018

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Forest fragmentation and deforestation are subjects of great concern in tropical regions, namely in South America and Africa, contributing to a rapid loss of tropical forest area and with serious implications for ecosystem functioning and biodiversity conservation. Despite the decrease in deforestation rates in recent years, the Brazilian Amazon, with the largest continuous region of tropical forest in the world, has suffered the greatest recorded losses, which have been contributing to continuous habitat fragmentation and a reduction in the territory occupied by Amerindian populations. In an attempt to preserve the remaining habitats and forests, Brazil has been adopting land conservation policies, including the implementation of protected areas. Protected areas (PAs) possess the potential to significantly reduce habitat fragmentation by conserving large, contiguous areas of land. In order to examine how effective PAs are at conserving forest area in the Brazilian Legal Amazon, patterns of deforestation are analyzed and compared, inside and outside the PAs, through landscape metrics calculated using the Patch Analyst and V-LATE extensions of a Geographic Information System. Two different sources (the Hansen Global Forest Change Dataset and the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research's (INPE) PRODES project) of annual forest cover-loss data derived from satellite imagery at medium-to-high spatial and temporal resolutions are compared at two-yearly intervals across 2002-2016. Additionally, fragmentation levels associated with deforestation patterns are assessed through an index modeled using a set of uncorrelated landscape metrics, and the associated change factors and trend are discussed. Results show that there is greater fragmentation in some PAs located in Mato Grosso and Pará States, especially those near the "arc of deforestation", and that Yanomami Indigenous Lands (YIL) are tending towards more fragmentation. Although some PAs are in a critical condition, findings show they all actively contribute to improved conservation of the native ecosystem and, in conjunction with sustainable management policies, will continue to help reduce or avoid forest fragmentation and degradation processes.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 59%

Deforestation pattern dynamics in protected areas of the Brazilian Legal Amazon using remote sensing data

et al. 2018

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“…Brasil, la región más grande del mundo con selva tropical continua, es uno de los países con las tasas más altas de pérdida de bosques (Cabral et al 2018). La deforestación en la Amazonia brasileña está estrechamente relacionada con las políticas de colonización promovidas a principios de la década de 1960, el programa de inversión en infraestructura que propicio la construcción intensiva de carreteras, de los años 1999-2004 (a), 2004-2009 (b), 2009-2014 (c), 2014-2018 (d), y 1999-2018 (e) Por otro lado, la perdida de bosques en la Amazonia boliviana en los últimos 18 años corresponde a un área aproximada a España, a una tasa promedio de 2000 km 2 /año (Andersen et al 2017).…”

Section: Discussionunclassified

Dynamics of forest loss in the southeast of the Peruvian Amazon: a case study in Madre de Dios

Aguirre

Canahuire-Robles

Duarez

et al. 2021

ECOS

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: La Amazonia occidental, puntualmente la región de Madre de Dios, es conocida como la capital de la biodiversidad del Perú y es reconocida mundialmente como uno de los lugares con mayor biodiversidad de la Tierra. Sin embargo, se ha visto amenazada por un grave problema de pérdida de bosques. Las principales amenazas ambientales se deben a una mala gestión del territorio que ocasionan la concentración de tierras, expansión agrícola, ganadería, minería de oro y la explotación económica descontrolada. El presente estudio analiza la dinámica de pérdida de bosques y los cambios de uso de suelo entre 1999-2018. Para la cuantificación de la pérdida de bosque se utilizaron técnicas de sensoramiento remoto, imágenes Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) y 8 Operational Land Imagery (OLI). Las imágenes fueron procesadas utilizando una clasificación supervisada denominada Neural Net. La metodología incluye procedimientos de validación utilizando puntos de verificación de campo e imágenes de teledetección de media y alta resolución de diferentes sensores (SPOT-5, PlanetScope, WorldView y Drone). Los resultados mostraron una pérdida de bosque durante 1999-2018 de 1698.63 km2 , con una tasa anual de -0.21% y una pérdida promedio de 59.28 km2 /año. Para los cambios de bosques a otros usos de la tierra, encontramos la conversión 841.41 km2 durante 2014-2018. Nuestros resultados indican que la agricultura es la mayor responsable del avance de la deforestación (72.90%), mientras que la minería de oro tiene una mayor incidencia en los sectores focalizados.

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“…Such interdisciplinary approaches could, for instance, allow integration across the individual, societal and even political levels, using different or flexible modelling approaches at each level to improve their representation (e.g. Andersen et al 2017). Technically, integration of this kind can utilise powerful forms of 'hybrid' modelling that allows model design and complexity to be tailored to requirements (Parrott 2011;Lippe et al 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How model paradigms affect our representation of future land-use change

Brown

Holman

Rounsevell

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Land use models operating at regional to global scales are almost exclusively based on the single paradigm of economic optimisation. Models based on different paradigms are known to produce very different results, but these are not always equivalent or attributable to particular assumptions. In this study, we compare two pan-European land use models that are based on the same integrated modelling framework and utilise the same climatic and socio-economic scenarios, but which adopt fundamentally different model paradigms. One of these is a constrained optimising economic-equilibrium model and the other is a stochastic agent-based model. We run both models for a range of scenario combinations and compare their projections of spatial and aggregate land use change and ecosystem service supply. We find that the agent-based model projects more multifunctional and heterogeneous landscapes in most scenarios, providing a wider range of ecosystem services at landscape scales, as agents make individual, time-dependent decisions that reflect economic and non-economic motivations. This tendency also results in food shortages under certain scenario conditions. The optimisation model, in contrast, maintains food supply through intensification of agricultural production in the most profitable areas, sometimes at the expense of active management in large, contiguous parts of Europe. We relate the principal differences observed to underlying model assumptions, and hypothesise that optimisation may be appropriate in scenarios that allow for coherent political and economic control of land systems, but not in scenarios where economic and other scenario conditions prevent the normal functioning of price signals and responses. In these circumstances, agent-based modelling allows explicit consideration of behavioural processes, but in doing so provides a highly flexible account of land system development that is harder to link to underlying assumptions. We suggest that structured comparisons of parallel, transparent but paradigmatically distinct models are an important method for better understanding the potential scope and uncertainties of future land use change.

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Modelling Land Use, Deforestation, and Policy: A Hybrid Optimisation-Heterogeneous Agent Model with Application to the Bolivian Amazon

Cited by 17 publications

References 23 publications

Deforestation pattern dynamics in protected areas of the Brazilian Legal Amazon using remote sensing data

Deforestation pattern dynamics in protected areas of the Brazilian Legal Amazon using remote sensing data

Dynamics of forest loss in the southeast of the Peruvian Amazon: a case study in Madre de Dios

How model paradigms affect our representation of future land-use change

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