Modelling livestock evacuation following a volcanic eruption: An example from Taranaki volcano, New Zealand

Abstract

Livestock evacuation from farms affected by volcanic ashfall during or following a moderate to large volcanic eruption of Taranaki volcano would pose serious logistical challenges for emergency organisations. The volcanic hazards present during the eruption (such as volcanic ashfall) have the potential to significantly disrupt farming and transport operations in widespread areas both near to and far from the volcano. This paper presents a simplistic model that estimates the time and resources required to evacuate dairy cows from a large eruption from Taranaki volcano in New Zealand. Whilst intended to highlight the scale of time, money and logistics required for a large livestock evacuation, the model also provides a first step towards a model which can be run during periods of volcanic crisis to aid decision making. The model estimates that for a total evacuation of cows from dairy farms impacted by 100 mm of ashfall 208 000 cows would need to be evacuated and it would take at least 43 600 man-hours and cost >NZ$2,000,000. It would take 264 livestock truck and trailer units to evacuate this number of cows in 7 days, or 88 units in 21 days. It is therefore recommended that largescale livestock evacuation and relocation should not be considered in future volcanic crisis planning, due to the large logistical requirements a large livestock evacuation would require in terms of time, livestock evacuation transport units, and lack of capacity of A08004; Online publication date 4 February 2009 Received 5 January 2008 accepted 5 October 2008 farms in surrounding regions to support the massive influx of additional livestock.

Uncertainty Analysis of the Prediction of Massive Ash Fallout From a Large Explosive Eruption at Sakurajima Volcano

“…Therefore, our assessment will focus solely on evaluating how the ashfall prediction results can accurately represent the correct hazard zones to issue an early warning and be able to trigger the evacuation, that is, evacuation zones. In general, evacuation zones for volcanic ash hazards can be defined by the risk of building collapse or loss of infrastructure services, according to specific damage thresholds based on the thickness of ash deposits (Blake et al, 2017;Deligne et al, 2017;Wild et al, 2019;Wilson et al, 2009). The current policy in Sakurajima volcano uses prior 24 hr ashfall forecast results with roof collapse risk (Areas with 30 cm or more deposit) baseline as one of the inputs for evacuation decision-making (Iguchi, 2020(Iguchi, , 2021Kagoshima City, 2021).…”

Livestock farming sustainability and forage production in volcanic-hazard prone areas of Indonesia’s active volcano

“…Several studies have reported that evacuation efforts of livestock from the volcanic eruption-impacted area are impractical and not economically justifiable. It was because of poor access to impacted areas (Wilson et al, 2009;Wilson et al, 2012;Wild et al, 2019;FAO, 2020). Efficient livestock evacuation during eruptions in Indonesia requires significant planning and standard operational procedure because of scattered small farm locations, limited transport infrastructure and detailed data on livestock populations and locations.…”

“…Efficient livestock evacuation during eruptions in Indonesia requires significant planning and standard operational procedure because of scattered small farm locations, limited transport infrastructure and detailed data on livestock populations and locations. Evacuation decisions also require farmers' understanding of how volcanic disasters may impact their farms, as most farmers have a close bond with their livestock and are unlikely to want to lose them (Wilson et al, 2009). Instead of impractical evacuation, livestock farmers in the high-risk volcanic zones could also be directed to keep their animals in a semi-intensive rearing system, like in the Gamalama or Lokon mountains, to allow livestock freely to find their own way to survive during moderate or heavy eruptions.…”

Livestock Evacuation Planning for Natural and Man-made Emergencies

“…Even though the authors of the document have strongly stated the importance of establishing a concrete evacuation plan for livestock in the area around a nuclear power plant, they have not discussed a mathematical and statistical formulation for such a plan. Development of a rigorous and mathematical formulation of an evacuation plan for livestock around a nuclear power plant is essential for producers to lessen the financial and emotional impacts related to losing their animals (Carroll et al 2006;Wilson et al 2009).…”