Modelling of Medium-Term (Decadal) Coastal Foredune Morphodynamics- Historical Hindcast and Future Scenarios of the Świna Gate Barrier Coast (Southern Baltic Sea)

Zhang, Wenyan; Schneider, R.; Harff, Jan; Hünicke, Birgit; Fröhle, Peter

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-49894-2_7

Cited by 7 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Different sources of remote sensing data include satellite images (e.g., Tiepold and Schuhmacher, 1999), aerial photographs (e.g., Furmanczyk et al, 2011;Dudzinska-Nowak, 2017), air-born laser scanning data (e.g. Hartleib and Bobertz, 2017), and orthophoto maps (e.g., Zhang et al, 2017;Dudzinska-Nowak, 2017). Such data were used, for example, to quantify the rates of coastline change over the past decades along the sandy southern Baltic Sea coast and more recently for the Russian waters (Ryabchuk et al, 2020).…”

Section: Sources Of Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Level Dynamics and Coastal Erosion in the Baltic Sea Region

Weisse¹,

Dailidienė²,

Hünicke³

et al. 2021

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Abstract. There are a large number of geophysical processes affecting sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region. These processes operate on a large range of spatial and temporal scales and are observed in many other coastal regions worldwide. Together with the outstanding number of long data records, this makes the Baltic Sea a unique laboratory for advancing our knowledge on interactions between processes steering sea level and erosion in a climate change context. Processes contributing to sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea include the still ongoing visco-elastic response of the Earth to the last deglaciation, contributions from global and North Atlantic mean sea level changes, or from wind waves affecting erosion and sediment transport along the subsiding southern Baltic Sea coast. Other examples are storm surges, seiches, or meteotsunamis contributing primarily to sea level extremes. All such processes have undergone considerable variations and changes in the past. For example, over the past about 50 years, the Baltic absolute (geocentric) mean sea level rose at a rate slightly larger than the global average. In the northern parts, due to vertical land movements, relative sea level decreased. Sea level extremes are strongly linked to variability and changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Patterns and mechanisms contributing to erosion and accretion strongly depend on hydrodynamic conditions and their variability. For large parts of the sedimentary shores of the Baltic Sea, the wave climate and the angle at which the waves approach the nearshore are the dominant factors, and coastline changes are highly sensitive to even small variations in these driving forces. Consequently, processes contributing to Baltic sea level dynamics and coastline change are expected to vary and to change in the future leaving their imprint on future Baltic sea level and coastline change and variability. Because of the large number of contributing processes, their relevance for understanding global figures, and the outstanding data availability, we argue that global sea level research and research on coastline changes may greatly benefit from research undertaken in the Baltic Sea.

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Section: Sources Of Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Level Dynamics and Coastal Erosion in the Baltic Sea Region

Weisse¹,

Dailidienė²,

Hünicke³

et al. 2021

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“…Projecting the future rate of coastal erosion or accretion in the Baltic Sea is highly uncertain because of a lack of consensus in the prediction of future storms. Neglecting potential change in future storms and assuming an intermediate sea level rise scenario (RCP4.5), an increment of 0.1-0.3 m year -1 in coastline erosion has been projected for some parts of the southern Baltic Sea coast (Zhang et al, 2017;Deng et al, 2015).…”

Section: Sedimentation and Coastal Erosionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If the wind-wave climate is stable, the height of coastal foredunes on a prograding coast remains stable or increases linearly with a low to intermediate rate (<1.5 mm year -1 ) of sea level rise. An accelerating rate of sea level rise and/or changing storm frequency will lead to a nonlinear growth in height (following a quadratic or a higher power law; Zhang et al, 2017;Lampe and Lampe, 2018). The critical threshold that separates linear and non-linear foredune growth in response to sea level rise is likely to be reached before 2050 in the RCP8.5 scenario (Zhang et al, 2017).…”

Section: Sedimentation and Coastal Erosionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An accelerating rate of sea level rise and/or changing storm frequency will lead to a nonlinear growth in height (following a quadratic or a higher power law; Zhang et al, 2017;Lampe and Lampe, 2018). The critical threshold that separates linear and non-linear foredune growth in response to sea level rise is likely to be reached before 2050 in the RCP8.5 scenario (Zhang et al, 2017).…”

Section: Sedimentation and Coastal Erosionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Water level plays a key role in dune toe erosion and also limits aeolian sand transport on the beach. The relationship between the intensity of the forcing (wave energy, run-up) and the morphological response (erosion at the beach and dunes) during storms is not straightforward Zhang et al, 2017). At some sites (e.g.…”

Section: Sedimentation and Coastal Erosionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary

Meier

Kniebusch

Dieterich

et al. 2021

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Abstract. Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarized and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focusses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in paleo-, historical and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments remain still valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, e.g. for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution and new scenario simulations with improved models, e.g. for glaciers, lake ice and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before, because more models can be included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth System have been studied and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication and climate change. New data sets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal time scales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first paleoclimate simulations regionalized for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics is dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterized by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern sub-basins and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern sub-basins.

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