Modelling of the Discharge Response to Climate Change under RCP8.5 Scenario in the Alata River Basin (Mersin, SE Turkey)

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response of a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment using a hydrological model. The effect of climate change on the discharge of the Alata River Basin in Mersin province (Turkey) was assessed under the worst-case climate change scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), using the semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). First, the model was evaluated temporally and spatially and has been shown to reproduce the measured discharge consistently. Second, the discharge was predicted under climate projections in three distinct future periods (i.e., 2021–2040, 2046–2065 and 2081–2100, reflecting the beginning, middle and end of the century, respectively). Climate change projections showed that the annual mean temperature in the Alata River Basin rises for the beginning, middle and end of the century, with about 1.35, 2.13 and 4.11 °C, respectively. Besides, the highest discharge timing seems to occur one month earlier (February instead of March) compared to the baseline period (2000–2011) in the beginning and middle of the century. The results show a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature in all future projections, resulting in more snowmelt and higher discharge generation in the beginning and middle of the century scenarios. However, at the end of the century, the discharge significantly decreased due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced snow depth in the upstream area. The findings of this study can help develop efficient climate change adaptation options in the Levant’s coastal areas.

Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

“…Climate change‐driven alterations in precipitation patterns and seasonality, combined with warmer temperatures, stronger evapotranspiration, reduced snow cover in upstream areas, SLR, as well as, increasing water demand, will further limit the access to freshwater resources (Chenoweth et al., 2011; Chowdhury & Al‐Zahrani, 2013; Croke et al., 2000; Fader et al., 2020; Fujihara et al., 2008; Oroud, 2008; Rajsekhar & Gorelick, 2017; Schewe et al., 2014; Shaban, 2008). Surface and groundwater resources in most of the EMME are projected to be further limited under climate change conditions and particularly when considering pathways of strong radiative forcing such as business‐as‐usual scenarios (Al Qatarneh et al., 2018; Chenoweth et al., 2011; Givati et al., 2019; Hartmann et al., 2012; Yıldirim et al., 2021). For example, climate projections for parts of the region suggest an increase in the average seasonality, affecting hydrologic regimes due to shorter wet seasons and earlier snowmelts (Allam et al., 2020).…”

Run-Of-River Small Hydropower Plants as Hydro-Resilience Assets against Climate Change

“…E-HYPE simulates river flow generation from rainfall distribution and temperature by dividing the European territory at 35,408 catchments of mean size of 215 km 2 , and by taking into consideration the topography, the soil and land use characteristics, the irrigation and crop demands on water, the snow coverage, and the evapotranspiration at each catchment [52]. The applicability of the model for present, as well as climate change, conditions is peer reviewed in the literature [53][54][55][56][57]. In the research, simulated historical daily discharges from 1981 to 2010 (https://hypeweb.smhi.se/explore-water/historical-data/europe-time-series/) (accessed on 10 May 2021) and discharges under climate change conditions (https://hypeweb.smhi.…”

Identification of Groundwater Potential Zones Using GIS and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Techniques: A Case Study Upper Coruh River Basin (NE Turkey)

“…Rainfall is the primary water source on the earth, and it controls the surface and groundwater amount [65][66][67]. For this reason, it is widely used in groundwater potential determination studies [11,[68][69][70].…”