Modelling of Time, Cost and Risk of Construction With Using Fuzzy Logic

Plebankiewicz, Edyta; Zima, Krzysztof; Wieczorek, Damian

doi:10.3846/jcem.2021.15255

Cited by 25 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…The end result of the research is the development of results in the form of a checklist knowledge base, which contains information on the potential impact of the identified risk factors in the life cycle of buildings on the size of the corresponding life cycle cost components (Table 6). The results obtained will provide information on one of the two input variables: the effect of the occurrence of a given adverse event (in addition to the probability of its occurrence), which is necessary as an input to the fuzzy inference model on the impact of risk on the size of the life cycle costs of a building, described in the authors' publications [19][20][21].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Expert studies on the impact of risk on the life cycle costs of buildings

2023

Archives of Civil Engineering

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The main goal of the studies was to collect information on the impact of the identified risk factors on the amount of costs incurred in the life cycle of buildings. The own studies were focused especially on residential and non-residential buildings. The studies consisted in obtaining expert opinions on the subject of the research involves in the non-random (arbitrary) selection of a sample of respondents from among specialists corresponding to the industry purpose of the studies and the research material. The research used the expert questionnaire method. The studies were divided into three stages. In the first stage, the identification and division of risk factors in the life cycle of buildings was performed. Then, experts assessed 45 selected risk factors that may affect the amount of costs incurred in the life cycle of buildings. In the last step, the research results were developed in the form of a checklist knowledge base, containing information about the potential impact of the identified risk factors in the life cycle of buildings on the amount of the corresponding components of life cycle costs.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Methods commonly used to quantify the risk of construction projects (own study based on[19][20][21][22][23][24][25])…”

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confidence: 99%

Expert studies on the impact of risk on the life cycle costs of buildings

2023

Archives of Civil Engineering

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“…Some optimize the execution schedule in terms of time risk [8][9][10][11], others optimize the schedule taking into account the limitation of resource availability [12]. Noteworthy is also the cost approach, where the cost risk of the project is also analyzed [13][14][15][16][17]. In this respect, a developed mathematical tool in the field of probability theory, fuzzy sets theory [17,18] and multi-criteria decision making are used [19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Noteworthy is also the cost approach, where the cost risk of the project is also analyzed [13][14][15][16][17]. In this respect, a developed mathematical tool in the field of probability theory, fuzzy sets theory [17,18] and multi-criteria decision making are used [19]. Meanwhile, it should be emphasized that the basis of any optimization is a specific technological and organizational solution (TOS).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Selection of technological and organizational solutions for construction works with the use of a fuzzy relation of preferences

2023

Archives of Civil Engineering

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The main idea of this article is the necessity to take into account the multi-variant technological and organizational solutions of individual construction works in order to ensure rational planning for the implementation of construction projects. In practice, selection of construction works most often limited to the evaluation of technological and organizational solutions on the basis of time and cost criteria. However, it should be remembered that construction projects usually have a complex technological and organizational structure. This fact may increase the durations and costs of individual works in relation to their planned durations and costs. Therefore, the authors propose to take into account the criterion of technological and organizational complexity of the assessed construction work. The article describes the procedure for the technological and organizational optimization of construction works. A numerical example of the method of selecting technological and organizational solutions with the use of a fuzzy relation of preferences is also presented. The article also proposes to combine the computational selection model with the network planning model in a graphic form. This approach expands the computational and decision-making possibilities of network models in the practice of planning construction projects.

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“…When forecasting the course of investment projects, a construction manager makes decisions regarding their future state [1]. These decisions can be made hypothetically (using a heuristic search) [2], or can be modelled on the basis of previously acquired knowledge (using empirical distributions of variables that are relevant to the actual state) [3,4]. The manager always has a certain level of probability as regards the accuracy of decisions [5,6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Course of Cumulative Cost Curves for Different Construction Projects

SZÓSTAK

2023

Civil and Environmental Engineering Reports

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Planning the course of cumulative cost curves and effectively monitoring the implementation process and the incurred financial outlays are still significant problems in the management of construction projects. This is particularly noticeable during the execution phase of construction works. Therefore, it is worthwhile to correctly determine the shape of the cost curve before starting this stage and to periodically examine its fitting to the scheduled course of the budgeted cost curve, the envelope of cost curves characterised by the best-fit curve. There are many methods of forecasting and estimating the costs of construction works, but they are very often complicated and require the decision-maker to use and elaborate mathematical tools. The aim of the research was to determine the shape and course of the cost curves for selected construction projects. Based on the analysis of the collected data on investment projects in 3 facilities research groups (collective housing, hotels and retail service facilities), an original attempt was made to determine the best fit curve and the area of the curve, which in turn indicates the limits of the correct planning of the cumulative costs of construction projects. The Three Sigma rule was applied, correlations and determinants were determined, and the area of the cost curves was described with a third degree polynomial. The conducted research showed that: 1. the optimal formula for determining the best-fit curve, which allow to determine the cost and time of construction works, is a 3-degree polynomial; 2. cost curves, within a certain bounding box, determine the area of the most likely cash flow; 3. when planning the course of a cost curve, it is advisable to use the bounding box of cost curves rather than a single, model, theoretical, or empirical mathematical expression describing the cost curve.

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Modelling of Time, Cost and Risk of Construction With Using Fuzzy Logic

Cited by 25 publications

References 46 publications

Expert studies on the impact of risk on the life cycle costs of buildings

Expert studies on the impact of risk on the life cycle costs of buildings

Selection of technological and organizational solutions for construction works with the use of a fuzzy relation of preferences

Forecasting the Course of Cumulative Cost Curves for Different Construction Projects

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