Modelling pyro-convection phenomenon during a mega-fire event in Portugal

Campos, Cátia; Couto, Flavio T.; Filippi, Jean-Baptiste; Baggio, Roberta; Salgado, Rui

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106776

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Moreover, high-resolution simulations enhance the accuracy of such predictions by considering factors such as wind patterns, terrain, and fuel types [23]. The Meso-NH-ForeFire model is one of the numerical modeling tools able to represent the complex fire-atmosphere system and has been successfully used in the last decade [24][25][26][27][28]. Meso-NH is an open area, research Numerical Weather Prediction model which can be used to forecast atmospheric motions on a large range of scales [29], spanning from thousands of kilometers to a few meters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Triggering Pyro-Convection in a High-Resolution Coupled Fire–Atmosphere Simulation

Couto,

Filippi,

Baggio

et al. 2024

Fire

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This study aimed to assess fire–atmosphere interactions using the fully coupled Meso-NH–ForeFire system. We focused on the Pedrógão Grande wildfire (28,914 ha), which occurred in June 2017 and was one of the deadliest and most damaging fires in Portugal’s history. Two simulations (control and fully coupled fire–atmosphere) were performed for three two-way nested domains configured with horizontal resolutions of 2 km, 0.4 km, and 0.08 km, respectively, in the atmospheric model Meso-NH. Fire propagation was modeled within the innermost domain with ForeFire, which solves the fire front with a 20 m resolution, producing the heat and vapor fluxes which are then injected into the atmospheric model. A simplified homogeneous fuel distribution was used in this case study. The fully coupled experiment helped us to characterize the smoke plume structure and identify two different regimes: (1) a wind-driven regime, with the smoke plume transported horizontally southward and in the lower troposphere, and (2) a plume-dominated regime, in which the simulated smoke plume extended vertically up to upper levels, favoring the formation of a pyro-cloud. The simulations were compared, and the results suggest that the change in the fire regime was caused by an outflow that affected the main fire front. Furthermore, the fully coupled simulation allowed us to explore the change in meteorology caused by an extreme fire, namely through the development of a pyro-cloud that also induced outflows that reached the surface. We show that the Meso-NH–ForeFire system may strongly contribute to an improved understanding of extreme wildfires events and associated weather phenomena.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Triggering Pyro-Convection in a High-Resolution Coupled Fire–Atmosphere Simulation

Couto,

Filippi,

Baggio

et al. 2024

Fire

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“…Portugal has a long history of forest fires, with the most critical years in terms of total burned area being 2003, 2005, and 2017. In 2017, 11 mega-fires (i.e., forest fires with total burned area above 10,000 hectares [5]) led to over 100 fatalities (e.g., [6][7][8][9][10]). After the year 2017, 2022 was the worst in terms of total burned area, with two fire outbreaks in the regions of Beira and Serra da Estrela [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most natural fires occur in the summer season, when a set of factors favor convection and the consequent charges generation from cloud development. In general, the thermodynamic environment of the atmosphere is characterized by hot and dry air at lower levels, followed by a moist layer in the middle troposphere (e.g., [8,9]). As it occurs over a low moist layer, the precipitating systems developed, also known as "dry thunderstorms", do not have significant precipitation associated [21,22], being a greater fire risk when lightning occurs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As it occurs over a low moist layer, the precipitating systems developed, also known as "dry thunderstorms", do not have significant precipitation associated [21,22], being a greater fire risk when lightning occurs. On the other hand, large-scale circulation can produce drier and hotter periods, creating favorable conditions to fire activity and acting as an enhancing or suppressing agent (e.g., [9,23]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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ECMWF Lightning Forecast in Mainland Portugal during Four Fire Seasons

Campos,

Couto,

Santos

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

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The study evaluated the ECMWF model ability in forecasting lightning in Portugal during four fire seasons (019–2022). The evaluation was made based on lightning data from the national lightning detector network, which was aggregated into resolutions of 0.5° and 1° over 3 h periods and analyzed from statistical indices using two contingency tables. The results showed that the model overestimates the lightning occurrence, with a BIAS greater than 1, with a success rate of 57.7% (49%) for a horizontal resolution of 1° (0.5°). The objective analysis was complemented by the spatial lightning distribution analysis, which indicated a time lag between the two data, i.e., the model started predicting lightning before its occurrence and finished the prediction earlier. Furthermore, such analysis revealed the lightning distribution being consistent with some weather patterns. The findings of this study provide insights into the applicability of the ECMWF lightning forecast data in the context of forecasting natural forest fires in Portugal.

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“…Several previous studies point to the influence of wildfire climate on wildfire incidence in Portugal and the world, especially on the spatial and temporal distribution, especially in the intraannual variability [25,31,[51][52][53][54]. In Portugal and many regions of the world, the interannual variability of wildfire incidence is essentially due to climatic variability and the occurrence of anomalous wildfire weather and extreme events [15][16][17][18]34,39,[55][56][57][58][59][60]. However, the objective and quantitative assessment of this influence in all its dimensions is a gap in the current state of knowledge of wildfire science.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Wildfire Climate on Wildfire Incidence: The Case of Portugal

Pereira,

Gonçalves,

Amraoui

2024

Preprint

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Although the influence of climate on the fire regime is unanimously recognized, most publications are studies on this influence are at the global scale. Therefore, this study aims to demonstrate the role of climate in the incidence of wildfires at the country and regional scale using statistical analysis and machine learning methods. Mainland Portugal was chosen as a case study due to its climate and because it is the European region most affected by wildfires. Results demonstrate the climate signature in the spatial and temporal distribution of the wildfire incidence. The conclusions of the study include (i) the existence of two pyro-regions, with different types of climate (Csb and Csa) composed of NUTS II regions: the northern region composed of the Norte and Centro regions and the southern region composed of Alentejo and Algarve; (ii) the intra-annual variability in the incidence of wildfires, characterized by two peaks, one in spring and the other in summer, are a consequence of the country's type of climate; and, (iii) how the annual cycle of wildfire incidence varies over the years depends on the weather conditions throughout each year. These results are of fundamental importance for wildfire managers, especially in the context of climate change.

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Modelling pyro-convection phenomenon during a mega-fire event in Portugal

Cited by 11 publications

References 36 publications

Triggering Pyro-Convection in a High-Resolution Coupled Fire–Atmosphere Simulation

Triggering Pyro-Convection in a High-Resolution Coupled Fire–Atmosphere Simulation

ECMWF Lightning Forecast in Mainland Portugal during Four Fire Seasons

The Influence of Wildfire Climate on Wildfire Incidence: The Case of Portugal

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