Modelling Runoff within a Small River Basin under the Changing Climate: A Case Study of Using SWAT in the Bălțata River Basin (The Republic of Moldova)

Abstract

The article focuses on modelling surface runoff in a small river basin taking into consideration climate change projections. The runoff was modelled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), while three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) were considered for modelling the future climate. Despite the identified uncertainties, all the scenarios pointed towards decreasing runoff and losing available water resources. The expected runoff of the case study basin (Bălțata River in the Republic of Moldova) will decrease under all considered scenarios. The risk of diminishing runoff will be low in the middle-term perspective and moderate in the long-term one, if considered from the yearly changes. However, there are months with a high risk of diminishing runoff, especially important for proper crop production. While in the middle-term perspective, traditional adaptation measures can be used, in the long-term one, a totally new approach should be sought.

Impact of Future Climate and Land Use Changes on Runoff in a Typical Karst Basin, Southwest China

“…For example, Zhang et al [28] established a SWAT model based on an improved, high-precision land use map to simulate and analyze the response of 2022 runoff production to post-Olympic construction land use changes in the core area of Zhangjiakou. Sîrodoev et al [29] applied the SWAT model to simulate surface runoff in the Bălśata River basin considering climate change projections, and noted that SWAT modeling can be successfully applied to the development of future scenarios of small rivers' runoff transformations caused by climate change, despite the uncertainties. Yang et al [30] combined multi-source remote sensing data and included solar radiation effects to construct the SWAT+ model.…”