Modelling scenarios for sustainable water supply and demand in Addis Ababa city, Ethiopia

Abstract

Background: The city of Addis Ababa is under rapid development and there are enormous construction activities along with rapid urbanization, and industrialization. These anthropogenic actions combined with population growth rate are affecting the water demand of the city. The overall purpose of this study is to model water supply and demand of the city and to identify potential water management strategies that supports the sustainable development goal number six (SDG6)-clean water and sanitation. Methods: We employed the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) modelling framework to analyze different scenarios for water demand and supply. The scenarios include population growth, living standard, as well as other supply and demand strategies. Results: For the modelling period, the reference scenario shows unmet water demand increases by around 48%, from 208 to 307 million cubic meter in 2015 and 2030 respectively. High population growth rate and high living standard scenarios have a great negative impact on the water supply system. Conclusions: Satisfying the future water demand of Addis Ababa will depend on the measures which are taken today. The integrated water management practices such as reuse of water and the selected future scenarios are proposed to decrease and manage the unmet water demand of the city. Hence, future predicted scenarios which is the combination of the external factors (i.e. population growth rate and living standard) and water management strategies were considered. From the analyzed scenarios, optimistic future strategies will support the management of the existing water supply and demand system of the city. Similarly, in the integrated management strategies scenario, it was assumed that measures were taken at both the demand and supply side to improve the efficiency of water in the entire chain. Thus, if the water sector professionals and other concerned bodies consider the selected scenarios, it will go a long way to solve the water shortage problem in the city, and this will also help to promote sustainable water management.

Complexities of the urban drinking water systems in Ethiopia and possible interventions for sustainability

“…12 , which will support the achievement of SDG 6 of clear water and sanitation. Studies also support this study's results that IWMS is better than another scenario (Alemu & Dioha, 2020 ; Kitessa et al, 2021a ). Furthermore, Fig.…”

“…Recent studies indicated that IWMS intervention saves more water than individual management approaches (Alemu & Dioha, 2020 ; Kitessa et al, 2021a , 2022 ). DSMS that include structural water-saving and advanced or technical water-saving technology can result in water-saving potentials of 6.97% and 9.82% by 2050, respectively (Kou et al, 2018 ).…”

“…A few researchers have attempted to assess the issues and challenges of UDWS in specific cities in Ethiopia (i.e., not at the Ethiopian level but in the selected city), but all were focused on specific topics and cities. For instance (Alemu & Dioha, 2020 ; Kitessa et al, 2021a , 2021b ) on water supply and demand in Addis Ababa city; (Getachew et al, 2021 ; Gizachew et al, 2020 ; Yimer & Geberkidan, 2020 ) on water quality/environmental issues; (Bhagat et al, 2019 ; Berhane & Aregaw, 2020 ; Venkata and Sudheer 2018 ) on technical issues related to WDS and non-revenue water, whereas (Debela, 2021 ; Kayaga et al, 2018 ) on institution and governance issues. It may be noticed that only a few studies were carried out to focus on the challenges of UDWS in very few Ethiopian cities (not at the Ethiopian level).…”

Climate change and trend analysis of temperature: the case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

“…The intensity and frequency of extremes can be easily changed by climate change and the changes in climate extremes and their impacts on a variety of physical and biological systems examined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and their effects can also contribute to global warming (IPCC 2007). Many factors such as the expansion of cities, and fast population growth rate along with migration from rural to urban areas pose a major challenge for city planners and also contributes to increasing climate change (WHO and UNICEF 2006;Alemu and Dioha 2020). Using various General Circulation Models, Feyissa et al (2018) suggested future climatic changes and argued that a rise in temperature will exacerbate the urban heat highland effects in warm seasons and an increase in precipitation.…”

Climate Change and Trend Analysis of Temperature in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

“…Likewise, Addis Ababa city population is increasing alarmingly due to internal migration and the high population growth rate of the city. The capital city is under rapid development with enormous construction activities along with rapid urbanization and industrialization (Alemu and Dioha 2020). Using various General Circulation Model, Feyissa et al.…”