Modelling social aspects of the energy transition: What is the current representation of social factors in energy models?

Krumm, Alexandra; Süsser, Diana; Blechinger, Philipp

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2021.121706

Cited by 96 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…Bottom-up planning takes a technical perspective on energy systems, although Section 2 shows how system development is equally a social process. Against this background, a growing number of studies suggests that bottom-up planning models increasingly address socio-scientific questions, too [72,86,54]. Specific questions to be addressed include: adoption of consumer technologies, acceptance of industry-scale technologies, opportunities for the public to engage, and, similar to past debates described in Midttun and Baumgartner [65], behavioral change of end-users.…”

Section: Socio-scientific Questionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Specific questions to be addressed include: adoption of consumer technologies, acceptance of industry-scale technologies, opportunities for the public to engage, and, similar to past debates described in Midttun and Baumgartner [65], behavioral change of end-users. Literature discusses two ways for bottom-up planning models to address these questions, either endogenously by integrating them into models or exogenously, either by adjusting inputs or interpreting outputs accordingly [86,54].…”

Section: Socio-scientific Questionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Fictional expectations in energy scenarios and implications for bottom-up planning models

Göke¹,

Weibezahn²,

Hirschhausen³

2021

Preprint

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The evolution of renewable energy demonstrates that development of energy systems is not a deterministic process dictated by technology but equally shaped by societal and cultural forces. Key instruments in this process are energy scenarios that describe hypothetical future systems and pathways from the present to this future. Against this background, this paper transfers the sociological concept of fictional expectations to energy scenarios capturing how scenarios, although these are not accurate forecasts, are treated by actors "as-if" and serve as a basis for seemingly rational decisions regarding an unknowable future. As a result, different scenarios compete for credibility to influence decision-making and steer development of the energy system in their favor.These insights on energy scenarios are applied to draw consequences for developing and applying bottom-up planning models, the quantitative tool energy scenarios generally build on. The paper concludes that bottom-up planning models should be open and accessible, minimize and be transparent about bias, aim for a large scope to be policy relevant, not apply stochastic methods just for the sake of adding complexity, and limit the representation of non-technical factors to input assumptions and the interpretation of results.

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Section: Socio-scientific Questionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Socio-scientific Questionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fictional expectations in energy scenarios and implications for bottom-up planning models

Göke¹,

Weibezahn²,

Hirschhausen³

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Changing governments may also have their own preferences, perhaps even driven by resistance from industry-based lobbying (Lockwood et al 2020, Catola andD'Alessandro 2020). In any case, the complexity of these relationships introduces a variety of unknowns, and their absence remains a critical shortcoming of IAMs and other energy models (Krumm et al 2022).…”

Section: Socio-political Acceptancementioning

confidence: 99%

“…models (IAMs)-that include simplified policy assumptions and calculations focused on the optimisation of economic or emissions reductions outcomes. Deeper insights into the desirability or feasibility of implementing individual electricity supply technologies can be provided by more detailed considerations of emissions, materials supply and other techno-economic and socio-political aspects, but these are rarely integrated into existing models (Capellán-Pérez et al 2020, van Sluisveld et al 2020, Krumm et al 2022, Köhler et al 2018. As such, while current predictions provide adequate general overviews of likely trends going forward, the robustness of current forecasting methods could be greatly improved via the further integration of additional technical determinants and potential sources of constraint.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overlooked factors in predicting the transition to clean electricity

Martin

Madrid‐López

Villalba

et al. 2022

Environ. Res.: Infrastruct. Sustain.

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The transition to clean energy will require significant increases in electricity sourced from renewable energy technologies. While wind and solar photovoltaic sources are generally expected to overtake hydropower to dominate the renewable electricity supply market, numerous other technologies vie for a share in this rapidly evolving arena. To date, predicting the emergence of different technologies has relied on large-scale energy models that employ simplified optimisations of economic and emissions reductions outcomes. This is problematic as many additional factors, largely underrepresented in current models, are likely to co-determine technological emergence storylines in the real world. Here, we present a summary of the best available information for five key factors as they apply to the seven most common renewable electricity technology categories. The findings suggest that wind and solar photovoltaic technologies remain the most likely to dominate the market going forward but could face considerable raw material supply risk issues. Other potentially more desirable alternatives exist but face their own geographic and environmental limitations. Ultimately, the study demonstrates the potential and importance of expanding the use of other relevant factors in the forecasting of energy transition pathways and in the field of energy modelling as a whole.

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“…First, decision-makers seek models that go beyond the techno-economic sphere and take into account all relevant aspects of the energy transition, including social, political, and environmental aspects ( Süsser et al , 2022 ). Yet, factors such as social preferences and policy dynamics are entirely ignored most of the time, or only considered as an exogenous narrative ( Krumm, Süsser and Blechinger, 2022 ). Therefore, existing approaches need to be extended and new modelling approaches need to be developed so that the models can better represent real-world conditions and developments.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Open energy system modelling to support the European Green Deal

et al. 2022

Self Cite

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Energy models are used to explore decarbonisation pathways and potential future energy systems. In this editorial, we comment on the importance of energy system modelling and open tools to inform policymaking in the context of the European Green Deal. We also summarise the seven contributions to the special collection on Energy Systems Modelling, among which are papers that have been presented at the Energy Modelling Platform for Europe (EMP-E) 2021 conference. The presented research advances current modelling approaches and supports energy modelling with open tools and datasets.

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Modelling social aspects of the energy transition: What is the current representation of social factors in energy models?

Cited by 96 publications

References 74 publications

Fictional expectations in energy scenarios and implications for bottom-up planning models

Fictional expectations in energy scenarios and implications for bottom-up planning models

Overlooked factors in predicting the transition to clean electricity

Open energy system modelling to support the European Green Deal

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