Modelling spatial relationships between land cover change and its drivers in the Afro‐alpine belt of Mount Guna (Ethiopia)

Abstract

This study examines the spatial relationship between land cover change and its drivers at varying scale in Mt. Guna. The recent land cover map was generated from Google Earth Image (2018), and the historical land cover map generated from the 1957 and 1980 aerial photos. Multi‐scale geographically weighted regression (GWR) and ordinary least square (OLS) were used to model the spatial relationship between land cover change and its drivers at varying scale. The change analysis revealed that Mt. Guna showed a dynamic land cover change between 1957 and 2018 dominated by conversions into cropland. Overall, 69% of the land cover change shows gains and losses, while 31% of the land cover of Mt. Guna showed persistence over 61 years. Furthermore, 77% of land cover was swapped and changed from its initial state. The result of modelling the spatial relationship between land cover change and its drivers showed that population density, slope gradient and clustered homestead density increases the likelihood of land cover change, while higher elevation, water source density and precipitation reduces the likelihood of land cover change. However, the spatial scale comparison indicated that the influence is stronger in large spatial scales than in small scales.

Impacts of land use and land cover change on ecosystem service values in the Afroalpine area of Guna Mountain, Northwest Ethiopia

“…The focus of this study was to examine the relationship between spatiotemporal LULC dynamics and total ESV changes. Birhanu et al. (2021) discovered that recent development activities and land-use-related policy caused accelerated LULC changes, resulting in a decline and loss of ESV in a similar study area.…”

“…Subsistence agriculture is the main source of income for the rural community. The local community of the study area illegally converts forest, grassland, and shrubland areas into farmland ( Birhanu et al., 2021 ). Cropland expansion without adequate land management will result in the loss of ecological services.…”

“…The study area is characterized by undulating landscapes with high interannual climate variability, complicated topography, and acute land pressure are found because of the growing population ( CSA, 2007 ). Subsistence agriculture, predominantly crop farming and animal husbandry, is the primary income source for the study area residents ( Birhanu et al., 2021 ). The ecosystem elements of Mount Guna are vital for the local community's subsistence; they provide food, water, construction materials, fuelwood, etc.…”

“…The afro-alpine area of Guna mountain is one of the most environmentally vulnerable regions in the highland parts of Ethiopia. Recent LULC changes (e.g., Birhanu et al., 2021 ), where agricultural activities and settlements predominate rural areas and impact ecosystem services.…”

Consumed from within? Social and ecological drivers of internal clearings in Ethiopian Orthodox church forests

“…This effect is likely because, in higher population areas, church forest expansion over time has been largely through the planting of non-native trees for commercial or construction reasons, most often Eucalyptus trees (Cardelús et al, 2017;Liang et al, 2016;Orlowska & Klepeis, 2018;Reynolds, Collins, et al, 2017). On the one hand, this expansion may indicate that forests may be resilient to population pressures even as population pressures convert other vegetation and scrubland into cropland and housing (Birhanu et al, 2021;Gebrehiwot et al, 2021), which is consistent with evidence that church forest areas have been resilient over time (Ashenafi & Leader-Williams, 2005;Cardelús et al, 2017;Sahle et al, 2021;Scull et al, 2017). On the other hand, Eucalyptus planting can contribute to native forest degradation and thus exhibit a tradeoff between commercial and ecological value that is masked by forest area (Cardelús et al, 2017;Liang et al, 2016).…”