Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model

Parolini, Nicola; Dedè, Luca; Ardenghi, Giovanni; Quarteroni, Alfio

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2022.03.002

Cited by 17 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…In this setting, approximately 60 550 and 86 500 individuals are vaccinated per day, on average, respectively. Taking into account the situation of asymptomatic individuals and a poor testing policy, which leads to substantial underreporting of cases, we adopt the same vaccination rate for susceptible and infected individuals [48,49]. Figure 2 b shows the frequencies of vaccination rates considering both shots (single-dose vaccines count as second doses), given the cumulative number of individuals vaccinated per day, which in turn is shown in figure 2 c .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of a delayed and slow-paced vaccination on cases and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study

Libotte

Anjos

Almeida

et al. 2022

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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In Brazil, vaccination has always cut across party political and ideological lines, which has delayed its start and brought the whole process into disrepute. Such divergences put the immunization of the population in the background and create additional hurdles beyond the pandemic, mistrust and scepticism over vaccines. We conduct a mathematical modelling study to analyse the impacts of late vaccination along with slowly increasing coverage, as well as how harmful it would be if part of the population refused to get vaccinated or missed the second dose. We analyse data from confirmed cases, deaths and vaccination in the state of Rio de Janeiro in the period between 10 March 2020 and 27 October 2021. We estimate that if the start of vaccination had been 30 days earlier, combined with efforts to drive vaccination rates up, about 31 657 deaths could have been avoided. In addition, the slow pace of vaccination and the low demand for the second dose could cause a resurgence of cases as early as 2022. Even when reaching the expected vaccination coverage for the first dose, it is still challenging to increase adherence to the second dose and maintain a high vaccination rate to avoid new outbreaks.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of a delayed and slow-paced vaccination on cases and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study

Libotte

Anjos

Almeida

et al. 2022

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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“…Moreover, these models become stochastic in order to characterize the modeling errors and uncertainties of the disease dynamics. Apart from these contributions, [22] introduced a data fitting-based model for analyzing the effect of additional controls in the strategy making for covid prevention. Furthermore, [23] , and [24] introduced some advancements in the estimation algorithm for accurately estimating the compartmental populations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, they lack in different aspects, requiring serious advancements. For example, [16] , [17] , [19] , [22] , [23] , and [24] , assume that the recovery of individuals is consistent for the exposed (asymptomatic infected) and infected populations. In contrast, different covid variants have shown different trends of their recoveries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Kalman-based compartmental estimation for covid-19 pandemic using advanced epidemic model

Nanda

Kumar

Bhatia

et al. 2023

Biomedical Signal Processing and Control

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“…The standard SEIR model 3 was extended to distinguish between age groups, symptomatic or asymptomatic disease progression, and vaccinated or unvaccinated populations. Similar extensions of SEIR-like models have been widely used in the COVID-19 crisis, for example, to account for undetected infections, different stages of infection or age groups 8 – 13 , the effects of vaccination and coexistence of different viral variants 14 , to study different behavioral responses to public health interventions 15 , 16 , or to forecast burden of epidemics on health care systems 17 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extended compartmental model for modeling COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia

Fošnarič

Kamenšek

Gros

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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In the absence of a systematic approach to epidemiological modeling in Slovenia, various isolated mathematical epidemiological models emerged shortly after the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic. We present an epidemiological model adapted to the COVID-19 situation in Slovenia. The standard SEIR model was extended to distinguish between age groups, symptomatic or asymptomatic disease progression, and vaccinated or unvaccinated populations. Evaluation of the model forecasts for 2021 showed the expected behavior of epidemiological modeling: our model adequately predicts the situation up to 4 weeks in advance; the changes in epidemiologic dynamics due to the emergence of a new viral variant in the population or the introduction of new interventions cannot be predicted by the model, but when the new situation is incorporated into the model, the forecasts are again reliable. Comparison with ensemble forecasts for 2022 within the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub showed better performance of our model, which can be explained by a model architecture better adapted to the situation in Slovenia, in particular a refined structure for vaccination, and better parameter tuning enabled by the more comprehensive data for Slovenia. Our model proved to be flexible, agile, and, despite the limitations of its compartmental structure, heterogeneous enough to provide reasonable and prompt short-term forecasts and possible scenarios for various public health strategies. The model has been fully operational on a daily basis since April 2020, served as one of the models for decision-making during the COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia, and is part of the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub.

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Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model

Cited by 17 publications

References 35 publications

Impacts of a delayed and slow-paced vaccination on cases and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study

Impacts of a delayed and slow-paced vaccination on cases and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study

Kalman-based compartmental estimation for covid-19 pandemic using advanced epidemic model

Extended compartmental model for modeling COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia

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