Modelling the COVID-19 pandemic: Focusing on the case of Greece

Violaris, Ioannis; Lampros, Theodoros; Kalafatakis, Konstantinos; Ntritsos, Georgios; Κostikas, Κonstantinos; Γιαννακέας, Νικόλαος; Tsipouras, Markos G.; Glavas, Euripidis; Tsalikakis, Dimitrios G.; Tzallas, Alexandros T.

doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100706

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 23 publications

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“…Numerous mathematical models are being produced to forecast the future of COVID-19 pandemic in the US and worldwide [4,5]. Several growth models, time series models, SIR model with their variants are used for forecasting the case and the death figures of COVID-19 in the literature [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. WHO collects scientific studies containing the latest international findings and information about COVID-19 and publishes them in the WHO COVID-19 Research Database by updating them daily [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic Waves in Death Figures of Turkey

Balaban

2023

ebph

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Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a substantial number of deaths worldwide, making it crucial to conduct a periodical behavior analysis of the COVID-19 death figures. By understanding the trends and patterns in mortality rates, decision-makers can make informed choices on prioritization of interventions to pandemics.Method: Death figures due to COVID-19 between 17 March 2020 and 27 November 2022 were taken into account in this study. Mortality data were analyzed using statistical and graphical methods. Von Bertalanffy’s growth model parameters were estimated for each wave. Then the model performance measures were calculated.Discussion: In this study, the course and change of daily mortality data over time were examined. The data reveal that the COVID-19 pandemic occurred in Turkey as four waves. Von Bertalanffy’s growth model appears to be an explanatory model for all pandemic waves according to the performance measures.Conclusion: It was observed that the COVID-19 pandemic spread in Turkey in four waves. Investigating COVID-19 and similar pandemics using versatile and multidisciplinary methods is of great importance in understanding and predicting the behavior of pandemics.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic Waves in Death Figures of Turkey

Balaban

2023

ebph

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Additive multiple contacts and saturation phenomena in epidemiological models are not detected by R₀

Villavicencio-Pulido,

Barradas,

Nila-Luévano

2024

Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.

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Many infections are transmitted by direct contacts. Usually one single direct contact is needed to transmit the required minimum infectious load. Most models describe contagions by single contacts using a term of the type mass action law. However, modelling infections that are transmitted after the susceptible individual had contact with several sources of infection requires more than mass action law terms. We call additive multiple contacts those that do not produce infection by themselves, but can produce infection if they happen simultaneously. We are interested in understanding the role played by R0 missing the mark in infections in which the minimum infectious load is reached not only by single contacts but also by additive multiple contacts. We propose different mathematical models describing not only infections by one single contact but also by additive multiple contacts. We show all models have the same value of R0, but correspond to different epidemiological mechanisms. Two models show contagions by additive multiple contacts and a third one shows reduction of infections by some saturation process which is not captured by R0. This shows that trying to control the epidemics by controlling R0 could be unsufficient or in some cases waste resources.

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Modelling the COVID-19 pandemic: Focusing on the case of Greece

Cited by 2 publications

References 23 publications

Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic Waves in Death Figures of Turkey

Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic Waves in Death Figures of Turkey

Additive multiple contacts and saturation phenomena in epidemiological models are not detected by R₀

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Modelling the COVID-19 pandemic: Focusing on the case of Greece

Cited by 2 publications

References 23 publications

Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic Waves in Death Figures of Turkey

Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic Waves in Death Figures of Turkey

Additive multiple contacts and saturation phenomena in epidemiological models are not detected by R0

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Additive multiple contacts and saturation phenomena in epidemiological models are not detected by R₀