Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

Abstract

We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito) and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS) are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls) to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data

A general overview of formal languages for individual-based modelling of ecosystems

“…Probabilistic P systems have been applied to model the population dynamics of various ecosystems [12,10] as well as to study the invasiveness of eastern species in European water frog populations [4]. As an example, there is a model of mosquitoes in Italy that uses attributes such as temperature and humidity [10].…”

“…The semantics of probabilistic P systems is closely related to S-PALPS: rules are usually applied with maximal parallelism while several proposals have been considered on resolving the non-determinism that may arise when more than one combination of rules is possible, for instance, [59,24]. Probabilistic P systems have been applied to model the population dynamics of various ecosystems [12,10] as well as to study the invasiveness of eastern species in European water frog populations [4]. As an example, there is a model of mosquitoes in Italy that uses attributes such as temperature and humidity [10].…”

Modelling Ecological Systems with the Calculus of Wrapped Compartments

“…In the long term period, competition among individuals of the same species (intraspecific competition) and among individuals of different species (interspecific competition) operates as a driving force of adaptation, and, eventually, by natural selection, of evolution. Competition, reducing the fitness of the individuals involved, 12 has a great potential in altering the structure of populations, communities and the evolution of interacting species. It results in the ultimate survival, and dominance, of the best suited variants of species: species less suited to compete for resources either adapt or die out.…”

“…The Calculus of Looping Sequences has been extended with type systems in [6,31,32,8,16]. As an application to ecology, stochastic CLS (see [7]) is used in [12] to model population dynamics. P-Systems have been proposed as a computational model inspired by biological structures.…”

Mean-Field Semantics for a Process Calculus for Spatially-Explicit Ecological Models

“…Various formalisms have been proposed in the literature for the individual-based modeling of biological and ecological systems. Examples of such formalisms include the calculus of looping sequences [7] and its spatial extension [6], cellular automata [14,11], Petri nets [17], synchronous automata [13], P systems [9,8,25] and process calculi (or process algebras) [28,19].…”