Modelling the economic impact of the tripartite free trade area: Its implications for the economic geography of Southern, Eastern and Northern Africa☆

Mold, Andrew; Mukwaya, Rodgers

doi:10.1016/j.joat.2017.05.003

Cited by 29 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The rationale behind African economic integration is stimulating intra-trade and promoting macroeconomic convergence, thereby reducing inequalities between wealth and poor economic regions [11,12]. In other words, economic integration improves the economic welfare of citizens [13]. Distribution of goods from surplus regions to areas where there is a shortage is expected to become cheaper and easier.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of AfCFTA on Food Security Sustainability: An Analysis of the Cereals Trade in the SADC Region

Pasara

Diko

2020

Sustainability

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The signing of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has stimulated a lot of trade potential in Africa that could see the continent significantly improving its intra-trade levels, thereby boosting the economic welfare of Africans. In light of food security sustainability in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, this paper employed the World Integrated Trade Solution, Software for Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade (WITS-SMART) simulation model to assess the potential effects of the AfCFTA on trade in cereals. Cereals have been regarded as the most critical component of food security. The model indicated trading partners for each of the 15 SADC countries, their level of trade creation, trade diversion, consumer surplus, welfare and revenue effects of any regional trade agreement. The results indicated that the AfCFTA will only lead to positive outcomes in four (Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar and Namibia) of the fifteen SADC countries, with the rest remaining unchanged. In general, previously closed economies, that is, economies which were not part of a free trade agreement (FTA) or a deeper arrangement will stand to gain more than open economies because they are already opened up at the free trade level, which is equivalent to the AfCFTA. Thus, as far as cereals and food security is concerned, the AfCFTA will add minimal value. However, the overall value gains are likely to be greater when all food categories are included in the simulations. In general, the study recommends that African countries should deepen their integration levels to perhaps common markets where production factors, that is, labour and capital, become mobile. This will have multiplier effects in improving continental food security sustainability from a trade perspective.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of AfCFTA on Food Security Sustainability: An Analysis of the Cereals Trade in the SADC Region

Pasara

Diko

2020

Sustainability

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“…Using quantitative models, economists have assessed the potential benefits of this project. Mold and Mukwaya (2016) conclude that regional trade in manufactured goods will receive a major boost if the TFTA becomes reality. Willenbockel (2013) finds that the welfare benefits of overcoming tariff and non-tariff barriers via the TFTA will be tremendous.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Developmental Regionalism and Regional Value Chains: Pitfalls to South Africa's Vision for the Tripartite Free Trade Area

Scholvin¹

2018

Africa Spectrum

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Regional integration via the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) received a significant boost when the South African parliament signed the corresponding agreement in October 2018. This article uncovers the convictions and objectives that drive South Africa's commitment to the TFTA. It reveals that South Africa sees the TFTA as a means of "developmental regionalism," which is expected to facilitate region-wide industrialisation based on value addition in regional value chains (RVCs). For this purpose, South Africa seeks to coordinate industrial policies within the TFTA and rehabilitate infrastructure jointly with the regional states. In addition to explaining the logic behind these goals, and analysing how far they have already been achieved, the article also highlights important challenges to South Africa's vision for the TFTA. It calls the prospects of developmental regionalism into question, being particularly sceptical about the way in which RVCs are conceived.

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“…1 However, only 22 of the 27 members have signed the agreement, and of these only Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, and Uganda have both signed and ratified. The TFTA, if fully implemented, will represent the second largest free trade area in Africa, 2 comprising almost half of African countries with a population of 683 million people and a total gross domestic product (GDP) of US$1.2 trillion (Mold and Mukwaya 2017). It is expected that the TFTA will constitute a strong basis for the African continental free trade area (AfCFTA).…”

Section: The Tripartite Free Trade Area (Tfta)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Africa agriculture trade monitor 2019

Bouët

Odjo²

2019

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Modelling the economic impact of the tripartite free trade area: Its implications for the economic geography of Southern, Eastern and Northern Africa☆

Cited by 29 publications

References 18 publications

The Effects of AfCFTA on Food Security Sustainability: An Analysis of the Cereals Trade in the SADC Region

The Effects of AfCFTA on Food Security Sustainability: An Analysis of the Cereals Trade in the SADC Region

Developmental Regionalism and Regional Value Chains: Pitfalls to South Africa's Vision for the Tripartite Free Trade Area

Africa agriculture trade monitor 2019

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