Modelling the Economic Security of Regional External Trade Flows

Abstract

Abstract. Subject of research: assessment and management of economic security of regional foreign trade flows of regions of Ukraine. Methodology: during the research, statistical analysis and analytical analysis (in the study of the main aspects of the formation of foreign trade flows of the region) are used. Mathematical modelling in economics (when creating a model of the two-dimensional normal distribution of regional foreign trade streams) and methods of analysis for risk assessment, conditioned by the formalization of the uncertainty of the operation of regional foreign trade operations are also used. The purpose of scientific research: mathematical modelling in economics in the management of economic security of export-import flows of regions of Ukraine; analysis of the structure of regional foreign trade flows in Ukraine and their respective risks; creation of the field of economic security of foreign trade flows of the region. The conclusion of the research: the study of limits and quantitative analysis of the risk of regional foreign trade flows in some regions of Ukraine is reduced to the creation of the area of crossing the main splicing ellipses of two-dimensional normal laws of export-import flows of these regions. After that, it will be possible to make a comparative assessment of the competitiveness and economic security of the regions. The purpose of the article is to develop an economic-mathematical model of quantitative risk analysis and to find appropriate boundaries of foreign trade flows of the region, which allows setting the thresholds of regional exportimport operations for optimal management of the process of foreign trade flows of the region. The foreign trade flows of Ivano-Frankivsk, Mykolaiv, and Kherson regions of Ukraine based on a two-dimensional normal distribution are modelled. Areas of threshold values of indicators of foreign trade flows of regions from the point of view of economic risk are defined, which, in contrast to existing one-dimensional approaches, takes into account elements of the interconnection of foreign trade flows of the region. The methodical conditions for constructing split ellipses of foreign trade flows of the region for comparative estimation of the risk of competitiveness and economic security of the regions are developed. This will make possible to conduct a systematic analysis of the region's economic development and to take measures both at the local level and at the state level in order to neutralize a number of threats to its economic security.

Methodology for Assessing the Risks of Regional Competitiveness Based on the Kolmogorov–Chapman Equations

“…Researchers are actively looking for new approaches, which are mostly based on well-known models, such as, for example, the Leontiev model [16], a system of meso levels and integral indicators [17], data analysis by classical statistical methods [18], the development of neural network models [19], the Cobb-Douglas model [20], and methods for assessing innovation potential as the sum of the average values of the statistical values of monitored indicators [21]. To predict the integral indicator of regional competitiveness, models based on the logistic equation are used [22].…”