Modelling the effect of Covid-19 mortality on the economy of Nigeria

Abstract

Objectives This paper is aimed at modelling the effect of COVID-19 mortality per population (CMP), a proxy for COVID-19 on the Gross Domestics Product (GDP) per capita per COVID-19 cases (RGDPC), a proxy for the economic wellbeing of a nation. Methods Nine models divided into three groups (Gaussian polynomial, other non-linear, and Gamma generalized polynomial models) were fitted for RGDPC data on CMP, collected from 1st June to 31st December 2020. Results The result showed that the gamma cubic model was selected as the best model out of the 9 competing models to predict the economic wellbeing of Nigeria. Predictions were made for the whole day in the year 2021. Conclusion It is therefore concluded that there is a non-linear relationship between COVID-19 mortality and the economic wellbeing of Nigerians. Thus, COVID-19 mortality has an adverse effect on the wellbeing of Nigerians. The economic wellbeing of Nigerians can be improved if COVID-19 mortality is stopped.

Normal-Power-Logistic Distribution: Properties and Application in Generalized Linear Model

“…The data used here are daily data collected from World Health Organisation (WHO) from 1st June 2020 to 31st December 2020, spanning 214 datasets, used by Iluno et al. ( 2021 ). The independent variable is a measure of COVID-19, termed COVID-19 Mortality per 1 million persons in the population (CMP), while the dependent variable is the GDP per capita per COVID-19 laboratory-confirmed cases (RGDPC).…”

“…The COVID-19 factor is also an extra burden to the wellbeing of the people (Pak et al ( 2020 ); Iluno et al. ( 2021 )).…”

The sources of the Kuznets relationship between the COVID-19 mortality rate and economic performance

“…However, findings on the influence of economic performance on COVID-19 mortality rates were rather mixed. For example, in Nigeria, while Hassan et al [ 58 ] discovered that higher GDP was associated with higher mortality rates, Illuno et al [ 22 ] concluded that such a relationship was non-linear. They suggested that reducing the COVID-19 mortality might enhance the nation's economic well-being.…”

“…This is because the number of mortalities is limited to non-negative integer values, positively skewed, and can have a zero count. Therefore, estimation with other regression techniques, such as ordinary least squares [ 11 , 16 , 21 , 22 ], generalized additive regression [ 10 ], and autoregressive integrated moving average model [ 17 ], are not appropriate to model this sort of data. Therefore, this study suggests using the negative binomial regression technique to address this problem and obtain a more accurate estimation.…”

The Legal Rights and Challenges of COVID-19 Patients Accessing Private Healthcare in Nigeria

“…Although the private sector seems to be a dominant source of health care providers, however, a private health system in Nigeria has not been fully integrated into the national pandemic response due to some legal and regulatory restraint by the regulators of the health sector. 37 This is concerning the fact that in the wake of the COVID 19 Pandemic in Nigeria, the Nigerian government, according to its power under Sections 2, 3, and 4 of the Quarantine Act, made the COVID-19 Regulation 2020. The Nigerian government's efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic included, among other things, limiting or prohibiting movement in most Nigerian states.…”