Modelling the Effects of Weather Conditions on Cereal Grain Contamination with Deoxynivalenol in the Baltic Sea Region

Abstract

Fusarium head blight (FHB) is one of the most serious diseases of small-grain cereals worldwide, resulting in yield reduction and an accumulation of the mycotoxin deoxynivalenol (DON) in grain. Weather conditions are known to have a significant effect on the ability of fusaria to infect cereals and produce toxins. In the past 10 years, severe outbreaks of FHB, and grain DON contamination exceeding the EU health safety limits, have occurred in countries in the Baltic Sea region. In this study, extensive data from field trials in Sweden, Poland and Lithuania were analysed to identify the most crucial weather variables for the ability of Fusarium to produce DON. Models were developed for the prediction of DON contamination levels in harvested grain exceeding 200 µg kg−1 for oats, spring barley and spring wheat in Sweden and winter wheat in Poland, and 1250 µg kg−1 for spring wheat in Lithuania. These models were able to predict high DON levels with an accuracy of 70–81%. Relative humidity (RH) and precipitation (PREC) were identified as the weather factors with the greatest influence on DON accumulation in grain, with high RH and PREC around flowering and later in grain development and ripening correlated with high DON levels. High temperatures during grain development and senescence reduced the risk of DON accumulation. The performance of the models, based only on weather variables, was relatively accurate. In future studies, it might be of interest to determine whether inclusion of variables such as pre-crop, agronomic factors and crop resistance to FHB could further improve the performance of the models.

Prevalence of Fusarium fungi and Deoxynivalenol Levels in Winter Wheat Grain in Different Climatic Regions of Poland

“…Pathogenic fungal species produce mycotoxins that, under favorable weather conditions, can be accumulated in grains directly after infection. This group of compounds includes DON, which is one of the most frequently identified mycotoxins in crops and plant-based foods in Poland [39]. In this study, DON was detected in all the samples of winter wheat grains within a concentration range of 4.00-311 µg/kg.…”

Temporal and spatial dynamics of Fusarium spp. and mycotoxins in Swedish cereals during 16 years

“…In a recent study in the Baltic countries, precipitation at ripening was identified as a risk factor for DON contamination in several crops (Marzec-Schmidt et al 2021 ). This indicates that delayed harvest may be especially problematic under rainy conditions, or that rain is often causing delayed harvest, and the effect of these two factors may be difficult to separate.…”

Fuzarioza kłosów pszenicy. Część 1. Opis choroby i charakterystyka patogenów

“…Zainfekowane ziarniaki, nawet wyglądające na zdrowe, mogą być skażone mykotoksynami (Cowger i Arrellano, 2010;Del Ponte i in., 2007). Nasilenie fuzariozy kłosów zależy przede wszystkim od warunków pogodowych podczas kwitnienia a także innych czynników agrotechnicznych, takich jak odporność odmian, sposób uprawy gleby, przedplon i inne (Klem i in., 2007;Marzec-Schmidt i in., 2021;West i in., 2012). Na zawartość mykotoksyn w ziarnie wpływ mają także warunki pogodowe po kwitnieniu do momentu zbiorów ziarna (Cowger i in., 2009).…”

“…Głównymi sprawcami fuzariozy kłosów są następujące gatunki Fusarium: F. culmorum, F. graminearum i F. avenaceum (Bilska i in., 2018;Bottalico, 1998;Bottalico i Perrone, 2002;Góral i in., 2021;Iwaniuk i in. 2018;Kuzdraliński i in.…”

“…Występujący również na kłosach zbóż gatunek F. equiseti należy do F. incarnatum-F. equiseti species complex (O'Donnell i in., 2013). W ostatnich latach obserwuje się wzrost znaczenia gatunku F. graminearum s.s. jako sprawcy fuzariozy kłosów w środkowej i północnej Europie (Bilska i in., 2018;Góral i in., 2021;Parikka i in., 2012;Yli-Mattila i in., 2013). Następuje natomiast spadek znaczenia gatunku F. culmorum.…”