Modelling the effects of Wuhan’s lockdown during COVID-19, China

Abstract

Objective To design a simple model to assess the effectiveness of measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to different regions of mainland China. Methods We extracted data on population movements from an internet company data set and the numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 from government sources. On 23 January 2020 all travel in and out of the city of Wuhan was prohibited to control the spread of the disease. We modelled two key factors affecting the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in regions outside Wuhan by 1 March 2020: (i) the total the number of people leaving Wuhan during 20-26 January 2020; and (ii) the number of seed cases from Wuhan before 19 January 2020, represented by the cumulative number of confirmed cases on 29 January 2020. We constructed a regression model to predict the cumulative number of cases in non-Wuhan regions in three assumed epidemic control scenarios. Findings Delaying the start date of control measures by only 3 days would have increased the estimated 30 699 confirmed cases of COVID-19 by 1 March 2020 in regions outside Wuhan by 34.6% (to 41 330 people). Advancing controls by 3 days would reduce infections by 30.8% (to 21 235 people) with basic control measures or 48.6% (to 15 796 people) with strict control measures. Based on standard residual values from the model, we were able to rank regions which were most effective in controlling the epidemic. Conclusion The control measures in Wuhan combined with nationwide traffic restrictions and self-isolation reduced the ongoing spread of COVID-19 across China. Research COVID-19 epidemic control measures, mainland China Zheming Yuan et al.

COVID-19: A Relook at Healthcare Systems and Aged Populations

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Risk factors for adolescents’ mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic: a comparison between Wuhan and other urban areas in China

“…At the time of this writing, there are more than 5.4 million confirmed cases and 0.3 million people who have died as a consequence of COVID-19 [5]. To control the epidemic, different levels of control measures were applied nationwide, and the Chinese government has implemented the most severe restrictions to Wuhan, with a complete lockdown of the population starting from January 23, 2020 [31]. Other interventions were also implemented in China during the epidemic, such as nationwide traffic restrictions, home quarantine policies, and school lockdowns.…”

Risk Factors for Adolescents' Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Comparison between Wuhan and Other Urban Areas in China

“…At the time of this writing, there are more than 5.4 million con rmed cases and 0.3 million people who have died as a consequence of COVID-19 (DX Doctor, 2020). To control the epidemic, different levels of control measures were applied nationwide, and the Chinese government has implemented the most severe restrictions to Wuhan, with a complete lockdown of the population starting from January 23, 2020 (Yuan et al, 2020). Other interventions were also implemented in China during the epidemic, such as nationwide tra c restrictions, home quarantine policies, and school lockdowns.…”