Modelling the Epidemiological Consequences of HIV Infection and AIDS: A Contribution from Operational Research

Roberts, Carole; Dangerfield, Brian

doi:10.1057/jors.1990.49

Cited by 55 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 23 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Systems dynamics modeling has been applied to various public health issues over the past several decades, with examples in heart disease [ 29 ], substance abuse [ 30 ], diabetes [ 31 ], and other areas of health research [ 28 ]. In the area of HIV/AIDS, systems dynamics modeling has been used to model HIV transmission [ 32 – 34 ]. Ours is the first attempt to model women’s participation in PMTCT services.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interactions among poverty, gender, and health systems affect women’s participation in services to prevent HIV transmission from mother to child: A causal loop analysis

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Retention in care remains an important issue for prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) programs according to WHO guidelines, formerly called the “Option B+” approach. The objective of this study was to examine how poverty, gender, and health system factors interact to influence women’s participation in PMTCT services. We used qualitative research, literature, and hypothesized variable connections to diagram causes and effects in causal loop models. We found that many factors, including antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, service design and quality, stigma, disclosure, spouse/partner influence, decision-making autonomy, and knowledge about PMTCT, influence psychosocial health, which in turn affects women’s participation in PMTCT services. Thus, interventions to improve psychosocial health need to address many factors to be successful. We also found that the design of PMTCT services, a modifiable factor, is important because it affects several other factors. We identified 66 feedback loops that may contribute to policy resistance—that is, a policy’s failure to have its intended effect. Our findings point to the need for a multipronged intervention to encourage women’s continued participation in PMTCT services and for longitudinal research to quantify and test our causal loop model.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interactions among poverty, gender, and health systems affect women’s participation in services to prevent HIV transmission from mother to child: A causal loop analysis

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The system dynamics model of HIV/AIDS epidemiology employed in this study has developed over some 12 years, undergoing enhancements and changes as the flood of knowledge about HIV and AIDS has grown (Roberts and Dangerfield 1990;Dangerfield andRoberts 1994, 1996b). It has now been adapted to offer a best fit of the model to data reflecting the seemingly highly encouraging effects of HAART on recent AIDS incidence.…”

Section: Haart and The Hiv Epidemicmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model‐based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: the consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy

Dangerfield

Fang

Roberts

2001

System Dynamics Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A system dynamics model of HIV/AIDS epidemiology is employed to simulate the effects of triple combination antiretroviral therapy in the treatment of HIV/AIDS. The epidemic data on homosexual men in the UK (1981‐‐1998) have been used to fit the baseline model. The new combination therapies, which supplanted antiviral mono and dual therapy in 1996, are proving to be the most effective prophylaxis yet for halting viral replication in vivo, but many uncertainties still surround their use. A range of model‐generated scenarios are created as a means of considering these uncertainties. Possible futures for the HIV/AIDS epidemic are constructed. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

show abstract

“…Much previous research has used SD to analyze the spread of infectious diseases, 19 such as HIV/AIDs, [20][21][22] Chlamydia, 23,24 etc. Although the complexity of models varies according to the underlying research questions, most of the models rise from the classic compartment models based on the SIR or SEIR structures and feedback shown in Figure 3.…”

Section: The System Dynamics Of Covid-19 the Model Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

<p>COVID-19 in Shanghai: IPC Policy Exploration in Support of Work Resumption Through System Dynamics Modeling</p>

Zhao¹,

Jia²,

Qian³

et al. 2020

RMHP

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose: It is unclear how and to what extent various infection prevention and control (IPC) policies affect the spread of an epidemic during work resumption. In order to assess the impact of IPC policies, this research addresses the results of a policy simulation in Shanghai, China, which estimates the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 under various IPC policies and offers evidence-based outcomes of work resumption policies for the world. Materials and Methods: This simulation research is based on a system dynamics (SD) model that integrates IPC work resumption policies implemented in Shanghai into the classical susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) epidemiological model. Input data were obtained from official websites, the Baidu migration index and published literature. The SD model was validated by comparing results with real-world data. Results: The simulations show that a non-quarantined and non-staged approach to work resumption (Policy 1) would bring a small secondary outbreak of COVID-19. The quarantined but non-staged approach (Policy 2) and the non-quarantined but staged approach (Policy 3) would not bring a secondary outbreak of COVID-19. However, they both would generate more newly confirmed cases than the staged and quarantined approach (Policy 4). Moreover, the 14-day quarantine policy alone appears to be more effective in reducing transmission risk than the staged work resumption policy alone. The combined staged and quarantined IPC policy led to the fewest confirmed cases caused by work resumption in Shanghai, and the spread of COVID-19 stopped (ie, the number of newly confirmed cases reduced to zero) at the earliest date. Conclusion: Conservative IPC policies can prevent a second outbreak of COVID-19 during work resumption. The dynamic systems model designed in this study can serve as a tool to test various IPC work resumption policies, facilitating decision-making in responses to combating the COVID-19 pandemic.

show abstract

Modelling the Epidemiological Consequences of HIV Infection and AIDS: A Contribution from Operational Research

Cited by 55 publications

References 23 publications

Interactions among poverty, gender, and health systems affect women’s participation in services to prevent HIV transmission from mother to child: A causal loop analysis

Interactions among poverty, gender, and health systems affect women’s participation in services to prevent HIV transmission from mother to child: A causal loop analysis

Model‐based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: the consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy

<p>COVID-19 in Shanghai: IPC Policy Exploration in Support of Work Resumption Through System Dynamics Modeling</p>

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About