Modelling the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases for Decision Analysis

Jit, Mark; Brisson, Marc

doi:10.2165/11539960-000000000-00000

Cited by 106 publications

(125 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Increasingly, dynamic models are being used and advocated in costeffectiveness analyses of vaccination programs [31]. These models enable the analysis of herd-immunity effects, possible age shifts in epidemiology and changing forces of infection, but are generally highly complex and require extensive information to parameterize them.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost-effectiveness of potential infant vaccination against respiratory syncytial virus infection in The Netherlands

Meijboom

Rozenbaum²,

Benedictus

et al. 2012

Vaccine

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Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. t r a c tIntroduction: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is one of the major causes of respiratory illness in infants, infecting virtually every child before the age of 2 years. Currently, several Phase 1 trials with RSV vaccines in infants are ongoing or have been completed. As yet, no efficacy estimates are available for these vaccine candidates. Nevertheless, cost-effectiveness estimates might be informative to enable preliminary positioning of an RSV vaccine. Methods: A decision analysis model was developed in which a Dutch birth cohort was followed for 12 months. A number of potential vaccination strategies were reviewed such as vaccination at specific ages, a two-or three-dosing scheme and seasonal vaccination versus year-round vaccination. The impact of the assumptions made was explored in various sensitivity analyses, including probabilistic analysis. Outcome measures included the number of GP visits, hospitalizations and deaths, costs, quality-adjusted life years and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results: Currently, without vaccination, an annual number of 28,738 of RSV-related GP visits, 1623 hospitalizations, and 4.5 deaths are estimated in children in the age of 0-1 year. The total annual cost to society of RSV in the non-vaccination scenario is D 7.7 million (95%CI: 1.7-16.7) and the annual disease burden is estimated at 597 QALYs (95%CI: 133-1319). In case all infants would be offered a potentially safe and effective 3-dose RSV vaccination scheme at the age of 0, 1 and 3 months, the total annual net costs were estimated to increase to D 21.2 million, but 544 hospitalizations and 1.5 deaths would be averted. The ICER was estimated at D 34,142 (95%CI: D 21,652-D 87,766) per QALY gained. A reduced dose schedule, seasonal vaccination, and consideration of out-of-pocket expenses all resulted in more favorable ICER values, whereas a reduced vaccine efficacy or a delay in the timing of vaccination resulted in less favorable ICERs. Discussion: Our model used recently updated estimates on the burden of RSV disease in children and it included plausible utilities. However, due to the absence of clinical trial data, a number of crucial assumptions had to be made related to the characteristics of potential RSV vaccine. The outcomes of our modeling exercise show that vaccination of infants against RSV might be cost-effective. However, clinical trial data are warranted.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost-effectiveness of potential infant vaccination against respiratory syncytial virus infection in The Netherlands

Meijboom

Rozenbaum²,

Benedictus

et al. 2012

Vaccine

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“…Our current model represents a static model that does not explicitly simulate the spread of HPV in the population. Models that do simulate this spread explicitly are labeled dynamic transmission models [9,35]. As argued, for interventions that impact on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, it is preferable to use a dynamic transmission model for the simulation of infectious diseases [10,35].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On Discounting of Health Gains from Human Papillomavirus Vaccination: Effects of Different Approaches

et al. 2012

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The exact discount rate and approach chosen in an economic evaluation importantly impact the projected value of health benefits of HPV vaccination. Investigating alternative discounting approaches in health-economic analysis is important, especially for vaccination programs yielding health effects far into the future. Our study underlines the relevance of ongoing discussions on how and at what rates to discount.

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“…Jit and Brisson (2011) conducted a literature review on infectious diseases and modeling, whereby looking at interventions such as vaccination, screening, social distancing, post-exposure treatment and culling (for animal and plant diseases only). Based on their findings they developed a flow diagram with seven key questions.…”

Section: Economic Evaluationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Health Adjusted Life Years (HALY) - A Promising Measure to Estimate the Burden of Zoonotic Diseases on Human Health?

Plaß¹,

Pinheiro²,

Mangen³

2012

Zoonosis

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Modelling the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases for Decision Analysis

Cited by 106 publications

References 66 publications

Cost-effectiveness of potential infant vaccination against respiratory syncytial virus infection in The Netherlands

Cost-effectiveness of potential infant vaccination against respiratory syncytial virus infection in The Netherlands

On Discounting of Health Gains from Human Papillomavirus Vaccination: Effects of Different Approaches

Health Adjusted Life Years (HALY) - A Promising Measure to Estimate the Burden of Zoonotic Diseases on Human Health?

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