Modelling the Future of the Baltic Energy Systems: A Green Scenario

Abstract

The electricity sector in Europe and in the world is undergoing rapid and profound changes. There is a sharp increase in the capacity of renewable energy sources, coal and nuclear power plants are being closed and new technologies are being introduced. Especially rapid changes are taking place in the energy systems of the Baltic States. Under these conditions, there is an emerging need for new planning tools particularly for the analysis of the power system properties in a long-term perspective. The main contribution of this article lies in the formulation and solution of optimization problems that arise when planning the development of power systems in the Baltic States. To solve this problem, it is necessary to use models of various power plants and make a number of assumptions, the justification of which requires the following actions: to briefly review the current situation of the production and demand of energy in the Baltic power systems; to conduct an overview of the Baltic interconnections and their development; to make forecasts of energy prices, water inflow, energy production and demand; to set and solve the problems of optimization of power plant operation modes; to demonstrate the possibility and limitations of the developed tools on the basis of real-life and forecast data. In this paper, a case study is performed using the main components of the overall modelling framework being developed. It focuses on the Baltic power systems in 2050 under the conditions of significant expansion in the installed capacity of renewable energy sources (RESs) and diminished fossil fuel power plant activity. The resulting electricity generation mix and trade balance with neighbouring countries is assessed, showing that even with significant RES expansion, the Baltic countries remain net importers and because of the intermittency of RESs, there are hours within the year when the demand cannot be met.

Efficient Heat Recovery from Hydrogen and Natural Gas Blend Combustion Products

“…Mass of dry combustion product in kg for one kmol of hydrogen and natural gas blend (4) Molecular mass of dry combustion product (5) For a humidity ratio of combustion product (kg of water steam per kg of dry combustion product), one can show that (6) Water steam amount in flue gas after 1 kmol of hydrogen and natural gas blend combustion (7) However, amount of water steam in kg already known from chemical reaction (8) If flue gas is treated in condenser (cool down to temperature t, which is lower than dew point) and it becomes possible to calculate amount of condensate per kmol of hydrogen and natural gas blend (9) Water steam saturated pressure can be described by number of empirical equations: Antoine, Tetens, Arden Buck, Goff-Gratch equations etc. In the present paper we use Tetens formula as it is simple and accurate (in range of 10 C to 100 C deviation from table value is within 0.5 %): (10) whereupon Eq.…”

“…The power systems of the Baltic States carry significant expansion potential in renewable energy sources (hereinafter -RES) based generation, and by 2050 they could generate a total of 21.34 tera-watt hour (hereinafter -TWh) of electricity from RES. This corresponds to 72 % of the total regional electricity consumption [5]. The mature technology of water electrolysis would allow for smooth integration of RES into green hydrogen production with a purpose to balance energy generation and consumption.…”

Energy Transition of the Baltic States: Problems and Solutions

“…"Modelling the Future of the Baltic Energy Systems: A Green Scenario" by L. Petrichenko, R. Petrichenko, A. Sauhats, K. Baltputnis and Z. Broka [4] reflects to the task of long-term strategic planning of the Baltic energy system development. The breadth and complexity of this task is due to the following main factors: (i) the need to model various technologies of power plants, networks, consumers and an interconnected power system of a wide geographic region; (ii) requirement to predict several stochastic processes for many years ahead and (iii) objective functions with many constraints and optimization variables.…”

Structural Changes, Efficiency Improvements, and Energy Demand Forecasting Based on Empirical Analysis of Decomposition Models

“…In the future, a high proportion of new energy grid-connected will become a feature of my country's power grid. New energy grid-connected is the backbone of my country's energy revolution, and has significant benefits in optimizing the energy structure and ensuring energy security [14][15].…”