Modelling the impact of climate change on flow and E. coli concentration in the catchment of an ungauged drinking water source in Norway

Hadi, Muhamad Sukri; Tveten, Ann-Kristin; Seidu, Razak

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.021

Cited by 20 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…This supports the estimated future increase in all indicator concentrations as well as colour in the winter season in the West, and the decrease in the colour in summer in all regions, when the effect from changing runoff is included. A model study of a Norwegian catchment indicates lower future concentrations of E. coli in summer due to reduced runoff (Mohammed et al 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on drinking water quality in Norway

Skaland

Herrador

Hisdal

et al. 2022

Journal of Water and Health

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Climate change will lead to higher temperatures, increased precipitation and runoff, as well as more intense and frequent extreme weather events in Norway. More extreme rainfall and increased runoff are historically associated with higher concentrations of indicator bacteria, colour and turbidity in raw water of Norwegian waterworks. Regional information about the risk for drinking water deterioration by the end of the century is essential for evaluating potential treatment capacity upgrades at the waterworks. We combined locally downscaled future climate scenarios with historical associations between weather/runoff and water quality from a wide spread of waterworks in Norway. With continued climate change, we estimate higher concentrations of water quality indicators of raw water by the end of the century. The water quality is estimated to deteriorate mainly due to the projected increase in rainfall, and mainly in the Western and Northern parts of Norway. While large waterworks seem to be able to adapt to future conditions, the degradation of raw water quality may cause future challenges for the treatment processes at smaller waterworks. Combining these results with further studies of treatment effects and microbial risk assessments is needed to ensure sufficient treatment capacities of the raw water in the future.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on drinking water quality in Norway

Skaland

Herrador

Hisdal

et al. 2022

Journal of Water and Health

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“…Numerous studies focused on assessing the impacts of environmental changes on runoff [26,27,61,63]. Investigating the effects of environmental changes on runoff usually involves the application of hydrologic models [64,65]. The choice of a hydrological model may have an impact on the final assessment results.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distinguishing the Relative Contribution of Environmental Factors to Runoff Change in the Headwaters of the Yangtze River

Guo

Wang

et al. 2019

Water

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The change in river flows at the basin scale reflects the combined influences of changes in various environmental factors associated with climatic and underlying surface properties. Distinguishing the relative contribution of each of these factors to runoff change is critical for sustainable water resource management, but it is also challenging. The headstream region of the Yangtze River, known as “China’s Water Tower”, has undergone a significant runoff change over the past decades. However, the relative contribution of environmental factors to runoff change is still unclear. Here, we designed a series of detrending experiments based on a grid-based hydrological model to quantify the combined influences of multiple environmental factors on runoff change and the relative contribution of an individual factor to runoff change. The results indicate that changes in climate and vegetation significantly increased water yield in the study basin over the past three decades, and the increase in water yield primarily came from the contribution from the upstream of the basin. On the basin scale, the change in precipitation dominated the runoff change that contributed up to 113.2% of the runoff change, followed by the wind speed change with a contribution rate of −15.1%. Other factors, including changes in temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration (as a surrogate for net radiation), and albedo (as a surrogate for vegetation) had limited effects on runoff change, and the contribution rate of these factors to runoff change ranged from −5% to 5%. On spatial patterns, the influences of changes in some environmental factors on runoff changes were affected by elevation, particularly for temperature. The rising temperature had mixed effects on runoff change, which generally increased water yield at high altitudes of the basin but decreased water yield at low altitudes of the basin.

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“…The major sources of uncertainties include the historical observations of the weather variables used in both the previous hydrological models and the hydrodynamic model, the climate projections, as well as the model formulations and their calibrations in this study. While uncertainties in the predicted stream flow and E. coli numbers were accounted for in the previous hydrological model [49] that provided additional inputs for this study, the number of discharge points (streams) included in the model was only a small fraction of the tributaries, most of which are either transient or cannot be easily assessed for regular sampling due to the steep topography. Thus, discharges from those sections could be higher both presently and, in the future, potentially affecting the numbers that reach the raw water intake zone.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Currently, the catchment of the lake is completely ungauged. Therefore, to account for inflows and microbial discharges from various streams surrounding the lake, results of hydrological and water quality models previously calibrated for the major streams (manuscript submitted) [49] were used as inputs to the hydrodynamic model in this study. The hydrological and water quality models were based on sub-catchments using a soil and water quality modeling tool (SWAT).…”

Section: Hydrological Flows Into the Lakementioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Forecasts on the Microbial Quality of a Drinking Water Source in Norway Using Hydrodynamic Modeling

Hadi

Longva

Seidu

2019

Water

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This study applies hydrodynamic and water quality modeling to evaluate the potential effects of local climate projections on the mixing conditions in Lake Brusdalsvatnet in Norway and the implications on the occurrence of Escherichia coli (E. coli) at the raw water intake point of the Ålesund water treatment plant in the future. The study is mainly based on observed and projected temperature, the number of E. coli in the tributaries of the lake and projected flow. The results indicate a gradual rise in the temperature of water at the intake point from the base year 2017 to year 2075. In the future, vertical circulations in spring may occur earlier while autumn circulation may start later than currently observed in the lake. The number of E. coli at the intake point of the lake is expected to marginally increase in future. By the year 2075, the models predict an approximately three-fold increase in average E. coli numbers for the spring and autumn seasons compared to current levels. The results are expected to provide the water supply system managers of Ålesund with the information necessary for long-term planning and decisions in the protection of the drinking water source. The method used here can also be applied to similar drinking water sources in Norway for developing effective risk management strategies within their catchments.

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Modelling the impact of climate change on flow and E. coli concentration in the catchment of an ungauged drinking water source in Norway

Cited by 20 publications

References 42 publications

Impacts of climate change on drinking water quality in Norway

Impacts of climate change on drinking water quality in Norway

Distinguishing the Relative Contribution of Environmental Factors to Runoff Change in the Headwaters of the Yangtze River

Impact of Climate Forecasts on the Microbial Quality of a Drinking Water Source in Norway Using Hydrodynamic Modeling

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