Modelling the impact of COVID-19-related control programme interruptions on progress towards the WHO 2030 target for soil-transmitted helminths

Abstract

Background On 1 April 2020, the WHO recommended an interruption of all activities for the control of neglected tropical diseases, including soil-transmitted helminths (STH), in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper investigates the impact of this disruption on the progress towards the WHO 2030 target for STH. Methods We used two stochastic individual-based models to simulate the impact of missing one or more preventive chemotherapy (PC) rounds in different endemicity settings. We also investigated the extent to which this impact can be lessened by mitigation strategies, such as semiannual or community-wide PC. Results Both models show that without a mitigation strategy, control programmes will catch up by 2030, assuming that coverage is maintained. The catch-up time can be up to 4.5 y after the start of the interruption. Mitigation strategies may reduce this time by up to 2 y and increase the probability of achieving the 2030 target. Conclusions Although a PC interruption will only temporarily impact the progress towards the WHO 2030 target, programmes are encouraged to restart as soon as possible to minimise the impact on morbidity. The implementation of suitable mitigation strategies can turn the interruption into an opportunity to accelerate progress towards reaching the target.

Defining optimal implementation packages for delivering community-wide mass drug administration for soil-transmitted helminths with high coverage

“…Thus, this analysis does capture some of these pandemic-specific challenges. However, we acknowledge the need for additional quantitative and qualitative research that directly assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on MDA planning and delivery and subsequent transmission interruption progress [ 64 ]. Currently, there are several ongoing DeWorm3 evaluations assessing these impacts and understanding how the study’s existing community-wide infrastructure could be utilized to facilitate rapid community responses to COVID-19.…”

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

“…Modelling in the forms of past inference and forward projections can align many moving parts (for example epidemiological, demographic, and social considerations) to inform our understanding of the reasons why programmes succeed or fail 38 , 39 . Forecasts have played a crucial role in understanding whether the 2020 40 and associated collection 41 , 42 , 2025 43 and 2030 3 – 15 , 34 goals can be reached under current strategies with the caveat that long-term predictions naturally become more uncertain.…”

The New Status of Parasitic Diseases in the COVID-19 Pandemic—Risk Factors or Protective Agents?

“…Two other NTDs whose prevention and control programs were directly impacted by the global and local response efforts to reduce the spread of COVID-19 are soil-transmitted diseases (STDs) and schistosomiasis. Although an interruption in the preventive chemotherapy of STDs will only temporarily impact the progress towards the WHO 2030 target, programs will have to be restarted as soon as possible to minimize the impact on morbidity [ 76 ]. After this interruption, additional catch-up time will be required to cope with the higher infection levels.…”