2016
DOI: 10.2471/blt.15.164707
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Modelling the impact of raising tobacco taxes on public health and finance

Abstract: ObjectiveTo investigate the potential for tobacco tax to contribute to the 2030 agenda for sustainable development by reducing tobacco use, saving lives and generating tax revenues.MethodsA model of the global cigarette market in 2014 – developed using data for 181 countries – was used to quantify the impact of raising cigarette excise in each country by one international dollar (I$) per 20-cigarette pack. All currencies were converted into I$ using purchasing power parity exchange rates. The results were summ… Show more

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Cited by 81 publications
(70 citation statements)
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“…We used the WHO Tobacco Tax Simulation model to assess the impact of China’s 2015 tax increase by each price category 22 , 23 . The model is originally a forecasting tool, but here we populated the model with actual price and sales volume data for the years 2014, 2015 and 2016.…”
Section: Early Outcome Assessmentmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…We used the WHO Tobacco Tax Simulation model to assess the impact of China’s 2015 tax increase by each price category 22 , 23 . The model is originally a forecasting tool, but here we populated the model with actual price and sales volume data for the years 2014, 2015 and 2016.…”
Section: Early Outcome Assessmentmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Several studies have modelled the expected impact of cigarette tax increases by applying price prevalence elasticities of −0.1, −0.2 and −0.3 for high-, middle- and low-income countries respectively 23 , 30 , 31 . In this paper, we explore the potential impact of the 2015 tax increase on smoking prevalence by applying an elasticity range of between −0.1 and −0.3.…”
Section: Early Outcome Assessmentmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Some studies model the additional government revenue that could be generated through such strategies, and the potential increases in government health expenditure [19,21,22]. These studies demonstrate that it is possible to improve fiscal space for health services.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Countries could afford universal access to an array of public health services provided mostly through policy, population‐wide, and periodic schedulable and outreach delivery platforms . An effective policy intervention to curtail the increasing incidence of NCDs globally and to decrease future expenditure on disease management is the implementation of taxes on goods that have adverse health implications such as tobacco, alcohol, sugar, fats, and processed food. From 1 April, 2018, the South African Revenue Service will tax manufacturers with a sugary beverages levy (at 2.1 cents (ZAR) per gram of the sugar content > 4 grams per 100 mL) to finance the prevention and control of NCDs and obesity…”
Section: African Health Challenges and Prioritiesmentioning
confidence: 99%