Modelling the impact of repeat asymptomatic testing policies for staff on SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential

Whitfield, Carl A.; Group, University of Manchester COVID-19 Modelling; Hall, Ian

doi:10.48550/arxiv.2210.08888

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The algorithm to generate individual viral load and infectiousness profiles is described in further detail in Supplementary Text S2 and in [33] is available at [34]. The method is detailed in [25] and summarised in Supplementary Text S1.3.…”

Section: Individual Characteristics: Viral Load Infectiousness and Te...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, considering the relative low cost of LFDs, this suggests that they are a better option for mass testing [37]. Note this estimate for the sensitivity of LFD antigen tests is based on estimates sensitivity in phase 3b testing in [18] adjusted for the relative error induced by self vs. trained swabbing (see [25] for further details).…”

Section: Impact Of Mass Testing On Point-source Outbreaksmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on workplace transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the home-delivery sector

Whitfield

Tongeren

Han

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Objective: We aimed to use mathematical models of SARS-COV-2 to assess the potential efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions on transmission in the parcel delivery and logistics sector. Methods: We developed a network-based model of workplace contacts based on data and consultations from companies in the parcel delivery and logistics sectors. We used these in stochastic simulations of disease transmission to predict the probability of workplace outbreaks in this settings. Individuals in the model have different viral load trajectories based on SARS-CoV-2 in-host dynamics, which couple to their infectiousness and test positive probability over time, in order to determine the impact of testing and isolation measures. Results: The baseline model (without any interventions) showed different workplace infection rates for staff in different job roles. Based on our assumptions of contact patterns in the parcel delivery work setting we found that when a delivery driver was the index case, on average they infect only 0.18 other employees , while for warehouse and office workers this went up to 0.93 and 2.58 respectively. In the large-item delivery setting this was predicted to be 0.83, 0.94, and 1.61 respectively. Nonetheless, the vast majority of simulations resulted in $0$ secondary cases among customers (even without contact-free delivery). Our results showed that a combination of social distancing, office staff working from home, and fixed driver pairings (all interventions carried out by the companies we consulted) reduce the risk of workplace outbreaks by 3-4 times. Conclusion: This work suggests that, without interventions, significant transmission could occur in these workplaces, but that these pose minimal risk to customers. We found that identifying and isolating regular close-contacts of infectious individuals (i.e. house-share, carpools, or delivery pairs) is an efficient measure for stopping workplace outbreaks. Regular testing can make these isolation measures even more effective but also increases the number of staff isolating at one time. It is therefore more efficient to combine these measures with social distancing and contact reduction interventions, as these reduce both transmission and the number of people needing to isolate.

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Section: Individual Characteristics: Viral Load Infectiousness and Te...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Impact Of Mass Testing On Point-source Outbreaksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on workplace transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the home-delivery sector

Whitfield

Tongeren

Han

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Modelling the impact of repeat asymptomatic testing policies for staff on SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential

Cited by 1 publication

References 48 publications

Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on workplace transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the home-delivery sector

Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on workplace transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the home-delivery sector

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