Modelling the Impacts of Agricultural Outputs and its Components on Human Mortality Rate in Nigeria

Abstract

Does agricultural activity affect human mortality? This research paper provides an empirical analysis on this important question by separately regressing agricultural outputs and its components on human mortality rate in Nigeria over the period 1981–2019. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag estimator, a long run relationship exist between agricultural outputs and human mortality rate in Nigeria. Regarding the parameter estimates, findings showed that the indirect relationship between agriculture outputs and mortality is statistically insignificant in the long run. More so, in the short run, the current level of agriculture outputs reported a significant positive coefficient whereas the first lag has a significant negative parameter. Concerning the agriculture components, in the long run, fishing activity negatively and significantly influenced human mortality whereas forestry activity directly impacted on human mortality rates. The influence of both crop and livestock productions on mortality rate is not statistically established in the long run. The study therefore suggests the need for government to adopt pro-poor policies that is capable of improving investments in agricultural activities by both public and private sectors so as to curtail human mortality rate in the country.