Modelling the impacts of climate and land use change on water security in a semi-arid forested watershed using InVEST

Daneshi, Alireza; Brouwer, Roy; Najafinejad, Ali; Panahi, Mostafa; Zarandian, Ardavan; Maghsood, Fatemeh Fadia

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125621

Cited by 101 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 105 publications

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“…Although the InVEST models contain uncertainties and do not fully reflect the actual indicator values (Daneshi et al 2021;Pickard et al 2017), previous studies have confirmed that they performed well in certain regions, which included urbanization areas similar to the ones in the current study (Redhead et al 2016;Sun et al 2018). Thus, the results of this study in the three urban agglomerations are relatively reliable.…”

Section: Limitations and Future Perspectivessupporting

confidence: 56%

Spatial scaling of land use/land cover and ecosystem services across urban hierarchical levels: patterns and relationships

Sun

Fang

2022

Landsc Ecol

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Context Land use/land cover (LULC) patterns seriously affect the ecosystem services (ESs), especially in highly developed urban agglomerations. Exploring how LULC and ESs change spatially across urban hierarchical levels and understanding the possible mechanisms can promote the sustainable planning of urban landscapes. Objectives By mapping the spatial patterns of LULC and ESs in three largest urban agglomerations of China, this study aimed to (1) identify the scaling relations of LULC and ESs across different urban hierarchical levels, (2) explore the possible mechanisms of these two types of spatial scaling, and (3) explore how the scaling relations of ESs response to LULC and its policy implications. Methods Based on LULC, we used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and other biophysical models to quantify ES indicators. Then, scalograms were used to quantify the scaling relations of LULC and ESs with respect to changing spatial extent. Results Developed land and cropland exhibited the most predictable responses with changing spatial extent. Compared to other ESs, provisioning services were the most predictable. The predictable scaling relations of ESs at different urban hierarchical levels fell into two general types: power laws at the city proper level and exponential relationships at the metropolitan region and urban agglomeration levels. Conclusions The scaling relations of both LULC and ESs varied across urban hierarchical levels. The spatial scaling of ESs was closely related to LULC patterns. Integrating the scaling relations of ESs into land use planning can help decision-makers formulate multi-scale landscape conservation strategies. Keywords Ecosystem services  Land use/land cover  Scaling relations  Urban agglomeration  Urban hierarchical levels

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Section: Limitations and Future Perspectivessupporting

confidence: 56%

Spatial scaling of land use/land cover and ecosystem services across urban hierarchical levels: patterns and relationships

Sun

Fang

2022

Landsc Ecol

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“…It is an open-source software used to visualize and estimate goods and services from nature on a spatial scale (Wu et al, 2021). The InVEST model allows the quantification, spatial mapping, and in some cases economic valuation of the ESs, as well as the analysis of impacts and trade-offs between alternative ESs management options (Grêt-Regamey et al, 2017;Daneshi et al, 2021). This model runs in a gridded map at an average annual time step which requires relatively low data and expertise, therefore it is appropriate for assessing the impacts of land-use change on multiple ESs .…”

Section: Integrated Valuation Of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Too...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying Ecological Security Patterns Based on Ecosystem Services Is a Significative Practice for Sustainable Development in Southwest China

Xiao

et al. 2022

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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Southwest China, which is rich in biodiversity and a wide range of ecosystem services (ESs), is a strong support for local human wellbeing. This area is also one of the key components of the ecological security shelter (ESS) for national ecological security and biodiversity conservation. Due to the combination of man-made and natural factors, Southwest China has suffered serious ecological degradation that directly threatens ecological security which refers to the health status of ecosystems and ESs functions. Mapping ESs-based ecological security patterns (ESPs) is essential for designing conservation strategies that suitably combine regional environment conservation with sustainable utilization. We used the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Tool) model to identify ecological conservation priority areas which integrated ecological sensitivity (soil erosion sensitivity, rock desertification sensitivity, landslide sensitivity, debris flow sensitivity, and freezing-thawing erosion sensitivity), ecological risk (drought risk, natural disaster risk, and socio-economic risk), and ecological conservation importance (soil conservation, water conservation, and biodiversity conservation importance). In this research, we summarized a new designing framework of ESs-based ESPs. We divided the study area into two zones and four belts including: (A) the alpine steppe and wetland zone, (B) Hengduan Mountain zone, (C) northern shelter belt (Daba-Micang Mountain), (D) central shelter belt (Wumeng-Wuling Mountain), (E) southern shelter belt (southern border of China), and (F) southwestern shelter belt (eastern Himalayas Mountain). Identifying distributions of the ESs-based ESPs has practical significance to improve local human wellbeing and to maintain sustainable development of natural-social ecosystems in Southwest China. Furthermore, ESs-based ESPs are necessary for local administrations to create rationalizing plans on balancing conservation and utilization of natural resources, so that policy-makers can put into place targeted prevention and control measures to limit the development of excessive consumption of natural resources and ecological damages, which is worth promoting.

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“…Understanding the impact of climate change on the hydrology in this river will provide useful Water 2021, 13, 1239 2 of 14 insight for better water management and engineering for the semi-arid regions, given that the hydrology in the semi-arid is highly sensitive to climate change. A previous study conducted in semi-arid and arid regions showed that climate change would worsen water scarcity [11]. A study conducted on the semi-arid basin in Mexico showed decreased runoff by about 60% due to climate change [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Assessment of the Future Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Mangoky River, Madagascar Using ANN and SWAT

Tanteliniaina

Rahaman²,

Zhai

2021

Water

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The assessment of the impacts of climate change on hydrology is important for better water resources management. However, few studies have been conducted in semi-arid Africa, even less in Madagascar. Here we report, climate-induced future hydrological prediction in Mangoky river, Madagascar using an artificial neural network (ANN) and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The current study downscaled two global climate models on the mid-term, noted the 2040s (2041–2050) and long-term, noted 2090s (2091–2099) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios, SSP 3–7.0 and SSP 5–8.5. Statistical indices of both ANN and SWAT showed good performance (R2 > 0.65) of the models. Our results revealed a rise in maximum temperature (4.26–4.69 °C) and minimum temperature (2.74–3.01 °C) in the 2040s and 2090s. Under SSP 3–7.0 and SSP 5–8.5, a decline in the annual precipitation is projected in the 2040s and increased the 2090s. This study found that future precipitation and temperature could significantly decrease annual runoff by 60.59% and 73.77% in the 2040s; and 25.18% and 23.45% in the 2090s under SSP 3–7.0 and SSP 5–8.5, respectively. Our findings could be useful for the adaptation to climate change, managing water resources, and water engineering.

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Modelling the impacts of climate and land use change on water security in a semi-arid forested watershed using InVEST

Cited by 101 publications

References 105 publications

Spatial scaling of land use/land cover and ecosystem services across urban hierarchical levels: patterns and relationships

Spatial scaling of land use/land cover and ecosystem services across urban hierarchical levels: patterns and relationships

Identifying Ecological Security Patterns Based on Ecosystem Services Is a Significative Practice for Sustainable Development in Southwest China

Assessment of the Future Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Mangoky River, Madagascar Using ANN and SWAT

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