Modelling the long-term evolution of worst-case Arctic oil spills

Blanken, Hauke; Tremblay, L. Bruno; Gaskin, Susan; Slavin, A. G.

doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2016.12.070

Cited by 18 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Ice also rafts pollutants such as polychlorinated biphenyls, pesticides, heavy metals, and microplastics (Newton et al, 2017;Peeken et al, 2018;Pfirman et al, 1995Pfirman et al, , 2009. Thousands of square kilometers of ice arrive annually from Alaskan or Russian waters, where companies such as Rosneft, Gasprom, PAO Novatek, Royal Dutch Shell, and Chevron hold exploration and development leases, representing potentially disastrous sources of pollutant releases into the ice pack (Blanken et al, 2017;National Research Council, 2014;Newton et al, 2017;Rosen, 2020). To protect sea-ice habitats in the LIA requires, therefore, scientifically sound stewardship of ice sources and pathways, what we refer to as the LIA's ice shed (Pfirman et al, 2009), in addition to managing development within the LIA itself.…”

Section: Protecting the Lia Means Protecting The Ice Source Regionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Defining the “Ice Shed” of the Arctic Ocean's Last Ice Area and Its Future Evolution

et al. 2021

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 By mid-century the major source of sea ice to the Arctic's Last Ice Area will shift from the Russian shelves to the central Arctic.  If global mean warming stabilizes at 2C, the Last Ice Area should stabilize, with younger ages and different sources than in recent history.  If current warming rates continue, Last Ice Area ice will likely be local and seasonal, devastating ice-obligate ecologies in this century.

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Section: Protecting the Lia Means Protecting The Ice Source Regionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Defining the “Ice Shed” of the Arctic Ocean's Last Ice Area and Its Future Evolution

et al. 2021

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“…A useful method to study sea ice drift pattern is by using passive microwave satellite images combined with the motions of sea ice buoys 16 , 17 , which highlight the role of sea ice, e.g. spreading oil spills 18 . Recent studies stress the changes caused by the shift to first year ice resulting in the tendency of sea ice floes to diverge from the main drift pattern 19 such as the Transpolar Drift, with complex effects on exchange processes of any contaminants between the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) of the various Arctic nations 20 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic sea ice is an important temporal sink and means of transport for microplastic

et al. 2018

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Microplastics (MP) are recognized as a growing environmental hazard and have been identified as far as the remote Polar Regions, with particularly high concentrations of microplastics in sea ice. Little is known regarding the horizontal variability of MP within sea ice and how the underlying water body affects MP composition during sea ice growth. Here we show that sea ice MP has no uniform polymer composition and that, depending on the growth region and drift paths of the sea ice, unique MP patterns can be observed in different sea ice horizons. Thus even in remote regions such as the Arctic Ocean, certain MP indicate the presence of localized sources. Increasing exploitation of Arctic resources will likely lead to a higher MP load in the Arctic sea ice and will enhance the release of MP in the areas of strong seasonal sea ice melt and the outflow gateways.

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“…), the extreme cold, seasonal darkness, remoteness, and presence of sea 10.1002/2016EF000500 ice will make containment and recovery extremely difficult, if not impossible [Sørstrøm et al, 2010;Harvey and Walker, 2013]. Blanken et al [2017], for example, found that sea ice will transport oil (and presumably other contaminants) significantly farther than ocean currents. The US National Academies of Science has recently completed a major study of the state of oil-spill management in the Arctic [National Academies of Science (NAS), 2014], and industry groups are investing in studies and experiments to develop response strategies [Sørstrøm et al, 2010].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing transnational sea‐ice exchange in a changing Arctic Ocean

et al. 2017

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The changing Arctic sea-ice cover is likely to impact the trans-border exchange of sea ice between the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the Arctic nations, affecting the risk of ice-rafted contamination. We apply the Lagrangian Ice Tracking System (LITS) to identify sea-ice formation events and track sea ice to its melt locations. Most ice (52%) melts within 100 km of where it is formed; ca. 21% escapes from its EEZ. Thus, most contaminants will be released within an ice parcel's originating EEZ, while material carried by over 1 00,000 km 2 of ice-an area larger than France and Germany combined-will be released to other nations' waters. Between the periods 1988-1999 and 2000-2014, sea-ice formation increased by ∼17% (roughly 6 million km 2 vs. 5 million km 2 annually). Melting peaks earlier; freeze-up begins later; and the central Arctic Ocean is more prominent in both formation and melt in the later period. The total area of ice transported between EEZs increased, while transit times decreased: for example, Russian ice reached melt locations in other nations' EEZs an average of 46% faster while North American ice reached destinations in Eurasian waters an average of 37% faster. Increased trans-border exchange is mainly a result of increased speed (∼14% per decade), allowing first-year ice to escape the summer melt front, even as the front extends further north. Increased trans-border exchange over shorter times is bringing the EEZs of the Arctic nations closer together, which should be taken into account in policy development-including establishment of marine-protected areas. Plain Language SummaryWe use data from satellite images to identify the formation, drift tracks, and melt locations of sea ice in the Arctic. Most ice melts locally: only about 21% is exported from the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in which it is formed. That export is nonetheless about 1,000,000 km 2 each year. As the ice cover has thinned and the summer sea ice has retreated in a warming Arctic, formation and melt locations have moved further north, ice drifts have accelerated, and the area of ice formation and melt has increased. We looked at ice formation and transport between the EEZs of the Arctic nations, and broke the record into two periods : 1988-1999 and 2000-2014. As the Arctic warms, more ice is transported between EEZs and it is arriving at the receiving EEZ faster, than in the past. Between the two study periods: Sea ice velocity increased by about 14%/decade; Russian ice reached melt locations in other nations' EEZs 46% faster; and North American ice reached Eurasian destinations 37% faster. Exchanges of ice have increased as a result. For example, export of ice from Russia to Norway increased by 11% and export from Alaska to Russia by 16%.

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Modelling the long-term evolution of worst-case Arctic oil spills

Cited by 18 publications

References 36 publications

Defining the “Ice Shed” of the Arctic Ocean's Last Ice Area and Its Future Evolution

Defining the “Ice Shed” of the Arctic Ocean's Last Ice Area and Its Future Evolution

Arctic sea ice is an important temporal sink and means of transport for microplastic

Increasing transnational sea‐ice exchange in a changing Arctic Ocean

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