Modelling the Number of Road Accidents

Procházka, Jiří; Flimmel, Samuel; Čamaj, Matej; Bašta, Milan

doi:10.15611/amse.2017.20.29

Cited by 17 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…The GARMA approach, which restricts the parameter space, was employed by Prochazka and Camej [31] to ensure that the process is stationary. Forecasting…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Estimate of the Number of Accidents on Polish Highways Based on the Kind of Road

Gorzelańczyk,

Grobelny

2024

Communications

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ResumeA surprising number of people die on Polish highways every year. Despite the fact that number is decreasing year after year, it is still rather considerable. Due to the epidemic, the costs of the road accidents were significantly lowered, but they still remain fairly large. Understanding the roads where the majority of accidents happen and the anticipated number of accidents in the next years are necessary to lower this number. The purpose of the article was to forecast the number of accidents that would happen on Polish roads based on the kind of roads. To do this, annual accident statistics from the Police's statistics for the years 2001-2021 were reviewed, and a forecast for the years 2022-2031 was produced. It is clear that either the accident rate is increasing or it is steady. Predictions also suggest that a large increase in accidents on Polish roads may be expected given the current situation.

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“…The GARMA approach, which restricts the parameter space, was employed by Prochazka and Camej [31] to ensure that the process is stationary. Forecasting…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Estimate of the Number of Accidents on Polish Highways Based on the Kind of Road

Gorzelańczyk,

Grobelny

2024

Communications

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“…The most widely used methods for forecasting the number of accidents are time series methods [17]- [18], but they have the disadvantage of frequently autocorrelating the residual component and the inability to assess the forecast's accuracy based on previous predictions [19]. Procházka et al [20]'s multiple seasonality model and Sunny et al [21]'s Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method were both used for forecasting. Exogenous variables cannot be included in the model, which is one of its disadvantages [22]- [23].…”

Section: Figure 1 Accidents That Occurred On Polish Roads Between 199...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimization of Methods for Forecasting the Number of Road Accidents

Gorzelańczyk,

Tylicki

2024

AAES

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Due to the abrupt rise in the number of vehicles on the road, there is an increasing risk of traffic accidents, which can result in fatalities and damage to economic resources. This is due to the rapid growth in the human population and the development in motorization. The biggest issue with anticipating and analyzing data on road accidents is the small quantity of the dataset that may be used for study in this area. Road accidents have a low geographical and temporal density, despite the fact that they cause millions of deaths and injuries annually.The purpose of this article is to suggest a strategy for improving methodologies for determining how frequently traffic accidents occur in Poland. Techniques for multi-criteria optimization were used in this. We can infer from the findings that the suggested method can be utilized to determine the best methods for forecasting the frequency of traffic accidents. The method used can successfully be used to forecast other events not only logistics or transportation.

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“…However, the shortcoming of this metho is the inability to assess the quality of the forecast based on outdated forecasts and the frequent autocorrelation of the residuals [5]. Procházka et al [6,7] used a multiple seasonality model for forecasting; in contrast, Sunny et al [8] chose the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Number of Road Accidents in Poland Depending on the Day of the Week using Neural Networks

Gorzelańczyk

Tylicki

2023

LOGI – Scientific Journal on Transport and Logistics

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The number of road accidents in the world is decreasing year by year. This number has been affected by the pandemic in recent years but is still very high. Therefore, it is necessary to take all possible measures and steps to reduce this number. The objective of the article is to forecast the number of road accidents in Poland depending on the day of the week. For this purpose, the annual data on the number of road accidents in Poland broken down by days of the week were analyzed, and a forecast for the years 2022-2040 was prepared on the basis of the police statistics. The forecast was made using selected models of neural networks. The research results show that a decrease in in the number of road accidents can be expected. However, the obtained results could be affected by the selected number of random samples (training, testing and validation).

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Modelling the Number of Road Accidents

Cited by 17 publications

References 1 publication

An Estimate of the Number of Accidents on Polish Highways Based on the Kind of Road

An Estimate of the Number of Accidents on Polish Highways Based on the Kind of Road

Optimization of Methods for Forecasting the Number of Road Accidents

Forecasting the Number of Road Accidents in Poland Depending on the Day of the Week using Neural Networks

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