Modelling the occurrence of heat waves in maximum and minimum temperatures over Spain and projections for the period 2031-60

Abstract

The occurrence of extreme heat events in maximum and minimum daily temperatures is modelled using a non homogeneous common Poisson shock process. It is applied to five Spanish locations, representative of the most common climates over the Iberian Peninsula. The model is based on an excess over threshold approach and distinguishes three types of extreme events: only in maximum temperature, only in minimum temperature and in both of them (simultaneous events). It takes into account the dependence between the occurrence of extreme events in both temperatures and its parameters are expressed as functions of time and temperature related covariates. The fitted models allow us to characterise the occurrence of extreme heat events and to compare their evolution in the different climates during the observed period. This model is also a useful tool for obtaining local projections of the occurrence rate of extreme heat events under climate change conditions, using the future downscaled temperature trajectories generated by Earth System Models. The pro

Projected spatial patterns in precipitation and air temperature for China's northwest region derived from high‐resolution regional climate models

“…A number of recent studies around the world have used CMIP5 models to focus on long-term changes in precipitation: Northwestern South America (Palomino-Lemus et al, 2015), South Australia (Rashid et al, 2015), Eastern Africa (Onyutha et al, 2016), and the Mediterranean (Piras et al, 2016). However, CMIP5 outputs have also been used to assess future changes in short-term (e.g., daily) maximum and minimum temperatures across Spain where projections for a period 2031-2060 showed a relatively large increase in the occurrence of extreme heat events (Abaurrea et al, 2018). Likewise, the CMIP5 predictions have served in the study of: future floods (Apurv et al, 2015;O'Neill et al, 2017), streamflow (Zhang et al, 2015;Smitha et al, 2018;Tiwari et al, 2018), cyclonic circulation (Parth Sarthi et al, 2015), drought (Venkataraman et al, 2016;Ahmadalipour et al, 2017), energy generation (Yao et al, 2016), and water resources (Shen et al, 2018;Zhuang et al, 2018).…”

Testing independence between two nonhomogeneous point processes in time

“…Our aim is to assess if this dependence can be explained by the seasonal behaviour of the phenomena (represented by an harmonic term) and a covariate representing the local temperature situation [29]. To that aim, a NH Poisson process whose intensity is a function of those covariates is fitted to each occurrence series, and all of them are satisfactorily validated.…”

Long-Term Spatial Modelling for Characteristics of Extreme Heat Events

“…This definition suggests that analyses of heat waves require temperature series at a daily scale, but offers no operational guidance with regard to the various choices of implementation. Khaliq et al (2005) and Reich et al (2014) used only maximum temperature, while Keellings and Waylen (2014) and, more recently, Abaurrea et al (2018) considered both maximum and minimum temperatures. Perkins and Alexander (2013) and Smith et al (2013) addressed the issue of analysing different measurements and definitions of this phenomenon.…”

“…(2014) used only maximum temperature, while Keellings and Waylen (2014) and, more recently, Abaurrea et al. (2018) considered both maximum and minimum temperatures. Perkins and Alexander (2013) and Smith et al.…”