Modelling the potential distribution of the endemic oak Quercus vulcanica Boiss. &amp; Heldr. ex Kotschy in Turkey from the last interglacial to the future: From near threatened to endangered

Sarikaya, Ayse Gul; Örücü, Ömer K.; Şen, İsmai̇l; Sarikaya, Oğuzhan

doi:10.12657/denbio.088.005

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…(4) The populations in the Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains regions have the potential to spread further northward into the Tibetan Plateau in the future. We should investigate whether these populations have indeed spread northwards in these areas through long-term population and environmental monitoring, and should make timely investigation and protection measures [ 104 , 105 ]. We believe that if the above protection and management measures are implemented, the likelihood of long-term survival of C. taliensis will be increased.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conservation genetics and potential geographic distribution modeling of Corybas taliensis, a small ‘sky Island’ orchid species in China

Liu,

Wang,

Yang

et al. 2024

BMC Plant Biol

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Background Corybas taliensis is an endemic species of sky islands in China. Its habitat is fragile and unstable, and it is likely that the species is threatened. However, it is difficult to determine the conservation priority or unit without knowing the genetic background and the overall distribution of this species. In this study, we used double digest restriction-site associated DNA-sequencing (ddRAD-seq) to investigate the conservation genomics of C. taliensis. At the same time, we modeled the extent of suitable habitat for C. taliensis in present and future (2030 and 2090) habitat using the maximum-entropy (MaxEnt) model. Results The results suggested that the related C. fanjingshanensis belongs to C. taliensis and should not be considered a separate species. All the sampling locations were divided into three genetic groups: the Sichuan & Guizhou population (SG population), the Hengduan Mountains population (HD population) and Himalayan population (HM population), and we found that there was complex gene flow between the sampling locations of HD population. MT was distinct genetically from the other sampling locations due to the unique environment in Motuo. The genetic diversity (π, He) of C. taliensis was relatively high, but its contemporary effective population size (Ne) was small. C. taliensis might be currently affected by inbreeding depression, although its large population density may be able to reduce the effect of this. The predicted areas of suitable habitat currently found in higher mountains will not change significantly in the future, and these suitable habitats are predicted to spread to other higher mountains under future climate change. However, suitable habitat in relatively low altitude areas may disappear in the future. This suggests that C. taliensis will be caught in a ‘summit trap’ in low altitude areas, however, in contrast, the high altitude of the Himalaya and the Hengduan Mountains are predicted to act as ‘biological refuges’ for C. taliensis in the future. Conclusions These results not only provide a new understanding of the genetic background and potential resource distribution of C. taliensis, but also lay the foundation for its conservation and management.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conservation genetics and potential geographic distribution modeling of Corybas taliensis, a small ‘sky Island’ orchid species in China

Liu,

Wang,

Yang

et al. 2024

BMC Plant Biol

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“…Although the excellent‐habitat area of C. henryi increased under various climate scenarios in future, the model results also indicated that too high temperatures were unsuitable for its growth (Figure 6 ; Table 4 ). Even warmth‐preferring species may become extinct because the negative impacts of climate change may surpass any potential advantages, such as increased temperature or a minor increase in CO 2 levels (Bussotti et al, 2014 ; Sarikaya et al, 2022 ). Therefore, we should be cautious about the impact of climate change on the species' geographical range.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of climate‐change scenarios on the distribution patterns of Castanea henryi

Chun-ping

Tian

Jim

et al. 2022

Ecology and Evolution

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Castanea henryi , with edible nuts and timber value, is a key tree species playing essential roles in China's subtropical forest ecosystems. However, natural and human perturbations have nearly depleted its wild populations. The study identified the dominant environmental variables enabling and limiting its distribution and predicted its suitable habitats and distribution. The 212 occurrence records covering the whole distribution range of C. henryi in China and nine main bioclimatic variables were selected for detailed analysis. We applied the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and QGIS to predict potentially suitable habitats under the current and four future climate‐change scenarios. The limiting factors for distribution were accessed by Jackknife, percent contribution, and permutation importance. We found that the current distribution areas were concentrated in the typical subtropical zone, mainly Central and South China provinces. The modeling results indicated temperature as the critical determinant of distribution patterns, including mean temperature of the coldest quarter, isothermality, and mean diurnal range. Winter low temperature imposed an effective constraint on its spread. Moisture served as a secondary factor in species distribution, involving precipitation seasonality and annual precipitation. Under future climate‐change scenarios, excellent habitats would expand and shift northwards, whereas range contraction would occur on the southern edge. Extreme climate change could bring notable range shrinkage. This study provided a basis for protecting the species' germplasm resources. The findings could guide the management, cultivation, and conservation of C. henryi , assisted by a proposed three‐domain operation framework: preservation areas, loss areas, and new areas, each to be implemented using tailor‐made strategies.

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“…The Caucasian range of the species was represented by 825 geospots (Beridze et al, 2023a, b). This number of records fulfil the requirements of building accurate species distribution models in MaxEnt (van Proosdij et al, 2016;Sarıkaya et al, 2022). The subdivision of the natural range of the sweet chestnut that has been adopted in this work is also justified by the schemes used in the international provenance trials (e.g., Maurer & Fernández-López, 2001).…”

Section: Species Occurrence Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Niche modelling suggests low feasibility of assisted gene flow for a Neogene relict tree, Castanea sativa Mill.

Beridze,

Sękiewicz,

Walas

et al. 2023

Dendrobiology

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As many tree species populations are being degraded by climate change, adaptive conservation, and forest management, such as assisted gene flow (AGF), can provide the genetic variation needed to adapt to climate change. The core of this strategy is to assist the adaptation process in populations at risk of climate maladaptation by introducing individuals with beneficial alleles to cope with expected climate changes. Castanea sativa Mill. (sweet chestnut) is an essential component of natural forests in the Mediterranean and Caucasian regions, with a long history of cultivation. Current climate change may seriously threaten the long-term persistence of the species, particularly in the Caucasus region, where the largest range reductions are predicted. Here, we used Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to assess the feasibility of AGF in European and Caucasian populations of Castanea sativa. Bioclimatic variables for present (1981–2010) and future (2071–2100) conditions were obtained from the CHELSA climate database. The final models of future species ranges were averaged across three climate models (IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPIESM1-2-HR and UKESM1-0-L) and three climate change scenarios – SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. There are marked differences in the climatic niches of the Iberian, Alpine-Apennine, Balkan, and Caucasian populations, with significant implications for AGF. The most suitable European areas for the Caucasian populations were found only in the Adriatic region. The Iberian populations were not compatible with the predicted future climate in the Caucasus in any of the scenarios tested. Suitable areas for Alpine-Apennine populations within the AGF strategy were predicted in the Colchic lowlands, the eastern Pontic mountains and the Hyrcanian forests in the SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 climate change scenarios. In contrast, the Balkan populations would be compatible at most with the western Pontic mountains and, to a lesser extent, with the Hyrcanian forests. According to the most damaging climate scenario SSP5-8.5, the potential of AGF in the Caucasus with Alpine-Apennine and Balkan populations could be very limited. Our study showed limited applicability of AGF for Castanea sativa between the European and Caucasian populations due to low climate match. Genomic modelling is needed to fully assess the feasibility of this strategy in the species.

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Modelling the potential distribution of the endemic oak Quercus vulcanica Boiss. & Heldr. ex Kotschy in Turkey from the last interglacial to the future: From near threatened to endangered

Cited by 6 publications

References 30 publications

Conservation genetics and potential geographic distribution modeling of Corybas taliensis, a small ‘sky Island’ orchid species in China

Conservation genetics and potential geographic distribution modeling of Corybas taliensis, a small ‘sky Island’ orchid species in China

Effects of climate‐change scenarios on the distribution patterns of Castanea henryi

Niche modelling suggests low feasibility of assisted gene flow for a Neogene relict tree, Castanea sativa Mill.

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