Modelling the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in the Province of British Columbia

Abstract

The goal of this research was to model the potential impact of climate change on food production, in the Fraser Valley and Peace River regions of British Columbia (BC), using historical crop yield and climate data. We identified eight indicator crops of importance for these regions of BC and utilized historical Census of Agriculture and climate data (temperature and precipitation) to model future potential impacts of climate change on agriculture. We developed three climate change scenarios for these eight indicators crops (extreme, moderate, and business as usual). Under the most extreme climate model scenario the Fraser Valley is expected to experience cooler summers and springs and wetter summers, with incremental increases in oat, blueberry and green bean yields by 2050. These same climate conditions were predicted to decrease the yields for raspberry crops by 2050, while barley and wheat crop yields remain steady. The business as usual scenario, where springs and summers are warmer and summers are wetter in the Fraser Valley, predicted increased barley, oat, wheat, and blueberry crop yields by 2050, while yields of raspberries were predicted to decrease and green bean yields are expected to be steady. Under the more conservative climate change scenario conditions, yields should remain steady for all crops, except green beans where yields will increase by 2050. Future climate conditions for the Peace River area were much different from the Fraser Valley. All three scenarios forecasted warmer and wetter springs and summers with decreased evapotranspiration and moisture deficits. These changes in climate conditions predicted declines in wheat, canola, and barley crop yields by 2050, while incremental increases in oat and dry pea crop yields could be expected by 2050.

Modelled Climate Change Impacts on Spring Canola Production Across British Columbia, Canada

“…This is primarily due to the conditions of the area being favourable to early-maturing crops, such as canola, with longer days and extended frost-free periods resulting in increased yields (Peace River Regional District, 2014). British Columbia informs a large amount of its provincial scale decision making from areas that are under the dedicated Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR) scheme (Perez et al, 2015). Established in 1973 the ALR spans the entire province, mapped in figure 1, and serves to protect roughly 5 million hectares of farmland by incentivising farming in the area and limiting non-agricultural uses (Androkovich et al, 2008).…”