Modelling the predicted geographic and economic response of UK cropping systems to climate change scenarios: the case of potatoes

Davies, Alison; Jenkins, Tim; Pike, Alistair; Shao, Jianbo; CARSON, I.; Pollock, C. J.; Parry, Martin L.

doi:10.1111/j.1744-7348.1997.tb05792.x

Cited by 23 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Peiris et al (1996) calculated increases in tuber yield by temperature rise too for potato at a few sites in Scotland (with a climate similar to that at Jokioinen and Tylstrup); the yield increases likewise were due to faster crop emergence and canopy expansion and thus a longer growth period. For predicted future temperature rise (without an increase in atmospheric CO 2 ) over England and Wales, Davies et al (1997) calculated variable and little changes in tuber yield of maincrop potato, which were roughly similar to the yield change for Oxford in the present study. With both models, changes in climatic variability did not result in a yield change in northern Europe, both with and without irrigation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 49%

“…Few other studies on the climate change impacts on potato production have been done. Within Europe, Peiris et al (1996) studied the effects of future climate change on tuber production in Scotland and Davies et al (1997) the effects on tuber production in England and Wales. For potato production in the USA, only Rosenzweig et al (1996) has investigated the impacts of climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparison of two potato simulation models under climate change. II. Application of climate change scenarios

Wolf

2002

Clim. Res.

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The effects of climate change (for the year 2050 compared to ambient climate) and change in climatic variability on potato growth and production at 6 sites in Europe were calculated. These calculations were done with both a simple growth model, POTATOS, and a comprehensive model, NPOTATO. Comparison of the results from both models indicated the sort of climate change conditions in which model results differed and may become less reliable. The effectiveness of possible management responses to climate change and the uncertainty in the model results were also evaluated with both models. With both models, climate change in northern Europe resulted in moderate to strong tuber yield increases in Jokioinen, Finland, and Tylstrup, Denmark, and in almost no yield change in Oxford, UK, both with and without irrigation. NPOTATO calculated for climate change in central and southern Europe nil to slight decreases in irrigated yield for the HCGG climate change scenario and nil to moderate yield increases for the HCGS scenario, and variable changes in water-limited yield for the HCGG scenario and slight to moderate yield increases for the HCGS scenario. POTATOS calculated less positive or more negative changes in both irrigated and waterlimited yield by climate change in central and southern Europe than NPOTATO. With both models, changes in climatic variability did not result in changes in both irrigated and water-limited yields in Europe. The management response analyses showed that both cultivation of an earlier crop variety and an advanced planting date resulted in higher yields and in more positive or less negative yield change due to climate change, in particular in southern Europe, and that only in the case of an earlier planting date did irrigation requirements always decrease with climate change. This pointed to the need for advancing the planting date with climate change. The uncertainty analyses showed that the yield change due to climate change was practically not affected by the soil type, but that this yield change may become different when a different growth model is applied, a different planting date is chosen, or a different crop variety is used.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 49%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of two potato simulation models under climate change. II. Application of climate change scenarios

Wolf

2002

Clim. Res.

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“…Estudos realizados em países de elevada latitude e clima temperado como, por exemplo, a Inglaterra (Davies et al, 1997), indicam um possível aumento na produtividade de tubérculos de batata diante das mudanças climáticas. Porém, em muitos países de latitudes baixas e médias, o que inclui o Brasil, o efeito das elevadas temperaturas do ar poderá ocasionar a diminuição na produtividade de tubérculos de batata, e uma estratégia para minimizar o efeito negativo das altas temperaturas nestes locais será alterar as datas de plantio (Hijmans, 2003).…”

Section: Resultsunclassified

Produtividade simulada de tubérculos de batata em cenários de mudanças climáticas

Fagundes

Streck

Bisognin

et al. 2010

Pesq. agropec. bras.

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Resumo -O objetivo deste trabalho foi simular a produtividade de tubérculos de batata (Solanum tuberosum) em diferentes cenários climáticos de aumento da concentração de dióxido de carbono [CO 2 ] e da temperatura do ar, considerando aumentos simétricos e assimétricos nas temperaturas mínimas e máximas diárias do ar. Utilizou-se o modelo de Spitters para simular a produtividade de tubérculos da cultivar Asterix, em duas épocas de cultivo (primavera e outono), recomendadas para a região de Santa Maria, RS. Em cada época, cinco datas de plantio foram avaliadas, em cenários climáticos de cem anos sem aumentos na [CO 2 ] e na temperatura (cenário atual), e em cenários com o dobro da [CO 2 ] atual e aumentos de 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 e 6ºC na temperatura. No cultivo de primavera, o aumento simétrico de 4ºC, nas temperaturas mínimas e máximas diárias do ar, e assimétrico de 5ºC é suficiente para anular o efeito benéfico na produtividade do aumento da [CO 2 ]. No cultivo de outono, o aumento da temperatura, praticamente, não afeta a produtividade de tubérculos de batata. A antecipação da data de plantio, no cultivo de primavera, e o atraso, no de outono, diminuem o impacto negativo do aumento da temperatura do ar sobre a produtividade de tubérculos de batata.Termos para indexação: Solanum tuberosum, aquecimento global, concentração de dióxido de carbono, fenologia, simulação de risco climático. Potato tuber simulated yield in climate change scenariosAbstract -The objective of this study was to simulate potato (Solanum tuberosum) tuber yield in different climate change scenarios of increased carbon dioxide concentration [CO 2 ] and air temperature, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures. Spitters model was used to simulate Asterix cultivar tuber yield considering two growing seasons (spring and fall) recommended for Santa Maria, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. In each growing season, five planting dates were evaluated in climate scenarios of a hundred years with no increase in [CO 2 ] and temperature (current scenario), and in scenarios with doubling [CO 2 ] and temperature increases of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6ºC. A symmetric increase of 4ºC and an asymmetric increase of 5ºC in air temperature offset the yield beneficial effect of increasing [CO 2 ] during spring, whereas increase in air temperature does not affect potato tuber yield during fall. Anticipating planting date in spring and delaying it in fall decrease the negative impact of the increasing air temperature on potato tuber yield.

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“…Many of these studies have identified the yield benefits of irrigation (e.g. Davies et al 1997) or the increased irrigation demand for the current production areas (e.g. Doll 2002;Weatherhead and Knox 2000).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An interactive multi-scale integrated assessment of future regional water availability for agricultural irrigation in East Anglia and North West England

et al. 2008

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A multi-scale approach has linked farm level decisions with regional water availability assessments that allow for environmental water needs and the competing demands for water. This is incorporated within a user-interactive software tool, enabling the impact of a range of variables to be easily examined. Climate change leads to increased potential irrigation demand in East Anglia and North West England. Under baseline socio-economic conditions, results suggest that such increased future water demands can be met in the North West, but in the drier East Anglian region are counter to the decreasing water availability under all climate scenarios. The decreasing availability is moderated or exacerbated according to the environmental priorities of the future socio-economic scenarios. Under economically focussed regional futures, water supply availability increases at the expense of the environment, despite high water demands. Under environmentally focussed futures, demand restrictions are needed due to the further decreased water availability as a consequence of the high environmental priority. Results show that the effectiveness of water pricing for reducing irrigation demand is also scenario-dependent. Where regional food production is important, irrigation demand is relatively priceinsensitive and abstraction controls will be most effective, whereas in a global market-drive future, irrigation demand is shown to be price-sensitive.

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Modelling the predicted geographic and economic response of UK cropping systems to climate change scenarios: the case of potatoes

Cited by 23 publications

References 8 publications

Comparison of two potato simulation models under climate change. II. Application of climate change scenarios

Comparison of two potato simulation models under climate change. II. Application of climate change scenarios

Produtividade simulada de tubérculos de batata em cenários de mudanças climáticas

An interactive multi-scale integrated assessment of future regional water availability for agricultural irrigation in East Anglia and North West England

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